战略性关键矿产资源供给安全研究综述与展望

doi:10.18402/resci.2020.08.01

Abstract

Abstract:

Strategic key minerals are related to the sustainable development of the society and play strategic roles in key industrial fields. This article reviewed the definition and selection of strategic and critical minerals, their supply risk assessment, and early warning research, and supply security system optimization and related policies. The main conclusions are as followed. (1) Strategic key minerals are raw materials that meet the needs of national defense and military systems, and for achieving the stable development of strategic key industries. There is a need to define strategic key minerals dynamically based on national development. (2) The supply risks of strategic key minerals have stronger ambiguity and uncertainty, and the supply risk evaluation models of strategic key minerals face many challenges. (3) Optimizing global resource allocation and improving the global governance system are important directions for optimizing supply security system of strategic key minerals and for policy choices. Future research on the supply security of strategic key minerals could be deepened from multidisciplinary research on the formation mechanism of supply security and the identification of supply risk factors by global supply chain tracking and big data-driven methods, and optimizing the policy system from the perspective of integrating external shock factors and internal industrial factors.

Key words: strategic key minerals, supply security, risk assessment and early warning, policy choice, review

WU Qiaosheng, ZHOU Na, CHENG Jinhua. A review and prospects of the supply security of strategic key minerals[J].Resources Science, 2020, 42(8): 1439-1451.

Figures/Tables 6

Figure 1

Table 1

Critical minerals identified in selected studies"

代表文献	评价矿种数	战略性或关键矿种数	具体矿种	评价维度
代表文献	评价矿种数	战略性或关键矿种数	具体矿种	供给风险	脆弱性	生态风险
NRC^[28]	11	5	锰、铌、铟、铂族金属、稀土	√	√	部分使用
Morley等^[29]	36	7	锶、银、锡、锑、金、汞、铂族金属	√	√	×
Buchert等^[30]	9	9	锂、钴、镓、锗、铟、碲、钽、铂族金属、稀土	√	×	×
EC^[31]	30	13	铍、碳、镁、钴、镓、锗、铌、铟、锑、钽、钨、铂族金属、稀土	√	√	√
DLA^[32]	34	9	铍、铬、钴、锌、锗、铌、钽、钨、铂族金属	√	×	×
Sarah等^[20]	28	14	铍、碳、氟、镁、钴、镓、锗、铌、铟、锑、钽、钨、铂族金属、稀土	√	√	√
Moss^[33]	12	8	钒、镓、硒、铌、铟、锡、蹄、稀土	√	×	×
BGS^[34]	50	29	氦、锂、铍、碳、镁、钾、锰、钴、锗、砷、溴、锶、铌、钼、银、镉、铟、锡、锑、碘、钽、钨、铼、金、汞、铋、钍、铂族金属、稀土	√	×	×
BGS^[35]	40	21	铍、碳、镁、钴、镓、锗、砷、硒、锶、铌、钼、铟、锑、蹄、钡、钽、钨、汞、铋、铂族金属、稀土	√	×	×
Willis等^[36]	34	27	锂、铍、氟、镁、硅、钛、铬、锰、钴、镍、锌、镓、锗、锆、铌、银、铟、锡、锑、碲、钽、钨、铼、铅、铋、铂族金属、稀土	√	×	×
DLA^[37]	35	13	铍、氟、铝、铬、锰、镓、锗、锡、锑、钽、钨、铋、稀土	√	×	×
Moss等^[38]	24	16	碳、钒、铬、钴、镓、锗、铌、铟、锡、碲、铪、钽、铼、金、铂族金属、稀土	√	×	√
Skirrow等^[39]	2	2	磷、钾	√	√	×
EC^[40]	38	17	铍、硼、碳、氟、镁、硅、磷、铬、钴、镍、镓、锗、铌、铟、锑、钨、铂族金属	√	√	√
DLA^[41]	30	8	铍、镁、铝、锰、锗、锑、钨、稀土	√	×	×
BGS^[42]	40	25	锂、铍、碳、氟、镁、钒、钴、镓、锗、砷、硒、锶、钼、银、镉、铟、锑、钡、钽、钨、铼、汞、铋、铂族金属、稀土	√	×	×
Bastein等^[43]	37	10	铝、铁、铜、镓、锗、锆、铟、锑、铂族金属、稀土元素	√	√	√
Hatayama等^[44]	19	17	铬、锰、铁、钴、铜、锌、铌、钼、银、铟、锡、钽、钨、金、铅、铂族金属、稀土	√	√	×
Graedel等^[45]	44	14	钪、砷、硒、锆、银、镉、铟、锑、铼、金、汞、铊、铋、铂族金属	√	√	√
Bortnikov等^[46]	18	18	锂、铍、钪、钴、镓、锗、硒、锶、钇、铌、镉、铟、蹄、钽、铼、铊、铋、稀土	√	√	×
NSTC^[47]	47	11	镁、钒、钴、锗、钇、锑、钨、汞、铋、铂族金属、稀土	√	×	×
Schulz等^[48]	23	23	锂、铍、碳、氟、钛、钒、锰、钴、镓、锗、硒、锆、铌、铟、锡、锑、蹄、钡、铪、钽、铼、铂族金属、稀土	√	√	√
EC^[22]	43	24	氦、铍、硼、碳、氟、镁、硅、磷、钪、钒、钴、镓、锗、钇、铌、铟、锑、钡、铪、钽、钨、铋、铂族金属、稀土	√	√	√
McCullough等^[49]	47	19	碳、镁、磷、钒、钴、镓、锗、锶、钇、铌、铟、锑、钽、钨、铼、汞、铋、铂族金属、稀土	√	×	×
Fortier等^[50]	52	34	氦、锂、铍、碳、氟、镁、铝、钾、钒、铌、钛、钪、铬、锰、钴、镓、锗、锶、砷、锆、铟、锡、锑、蹄、铯、钡、铪、钽、钨、铼、铋、铀、铂族金属、稀土	√	×	×

Table 1

Table 2

Figure 2

Figure 3

Table 3

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供给风险指标类别	具体指标	作者/机构	数据来源
地质风险	储量可获得性	Hatayama等^[44]和USGS^[69]	USGS
地质风险	矿产产能利用	Rosenau-Tornow等^[70]	世界金属统计局（World Bureau of Metal Statistics）
技术风险	联产水平	Nassar等^[71]和Gulley等^[72]	耶鲁大学
技术风险	可再利用性	Graedel等^[52]和Chapman等^[73]	联合国环境规划署, Oakdene Hollins and Fraunhofer ISI
经济风险	市场可替代性	Chapman等^[73]	Oakdene Hollins and Fraunhofer ISI
	需求增长	Chapman等^[73]	Oakdene Hollins and Fraunhofer ISI
	历史价格波动	USGS^[69]	USGS;Metals Economics Group
	市场均衡	Rosenau-Tornow等^[70]	多种来源
	矿产资源生产成本	Rosenau-Tornow等^[70]	企业年报
	矿业投资	Hatayama等^[44]	多种来源
	库存水平	Rosenau-Tornow等^[70]	多种来源
地缘政治风险	全球供给集中度	Hatayama等^[44],Masoudi等^[61],Rosenau-Tornow等^[70]和Gl?ser等^[74]	国家层面数据来源于USGS或UN Comtrade,暂无企业层面的集中度数据源
	政府稳定度	Nassar等^[71]	世界银行
	进口贸易依存度	Rosenau-Tornow等^[70]和Gulley等^[72]	地方地质调查或统计机构
	气候变化脆弱性	Achzet等^[51]和Graedel等^[52]	德国气候变化咨询委员会
规制风险	环境标准	Hsu等^[75]和Zhang等^[76]	耶鲁大学
	政策潜力指数	Zhang等^[76]和Jackson等^[77]	Fraser Institute
	贸易壁垒	Gulley等^[72]	政府数据库
社会风险	经济子系统稳定度	UNDP^[78]	联合国环境规划署
社会风险	新闻曝光数量	Gulley等^[72]	多种来源

政策类型	政策工具	中国使用情况
资源保护	国家战略性关键矿产战略	√
	战略性关键矿产资源动态优选	×
	国家储备	√
环境保护	影响战略性关键矿产行业发展的环境法律	√
环境保护	环境税	√
产业发展	促进国内勘探和开采	√
	促进资源回收利用	√
	促进替代品的发展	×
	促进生产效率提升	√
	加大创新与研发	√
	补贴国内生产和加工	√
	私人投资许可	√
	竞争法/反托拉斯机构	√
	外商直接投资许可	√
	国家投资担保	√
	税收优惠	√
	企业技术扶持	√
	提高供应链透明度	×
国际贸易	资源出口限制	√
	非关税壁垒	√
	进口补贴	√
	双边投资（贸易）协议	√
	利用世贸组织争端解决机制	√

A review and prospects of the supply security of strategic key minerals

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