海洋生物多样性价值评估的不确定性偏差修正——以福建平潭为例

doi:10.18402/resci.2020.07.10

Abstract

Abstract:

When responding to contingent valuation method (CVM) valuation questions, some respondents may show uncertainty in their willingness to pay (WTP) because of the lack of cognition of the goods to be estimated, which will cause uncertainty bias. This study took the valuation of marine biodiversity in Pingtan County, Fujian Province as an example, to identify and correct the uncertainty bias by adding follow-up questions and incorporate uncertainty into the framework of WTP estimation, which will reduce the bias and improve the validity of CVM. The results show that about 50% of the respondents were uncertain of their willingness to pay, which means that the uncertainty could be universal. Years of residency in the area, knowledge of marine biodiversity, and income had significant effects on the uncertainty. Incorporating uncertainty into the estimation of WTP, the parameter estimation results show that the estimated WTP to preserve marine biodiversity was RMB 200.24 yuan per person each year and the value of marine biodiversity in Pingtan was RMB 88.89 million yuan per year. The conclusion may deepen the understanding of the sources as well as the correction methods of uncertainty bias, and thus improve the validity of estimation results in CVM and provide data support for the protection and governance of marine biodiversity in island ecosystems.

Key words: contingent valuation method (CVM), uncertainty bias, payment cards, willingness to pay, marine biodiversity, Pingtan County

LI Jingmei, SHAN Jingzhu, DENG Yuncheng, XU Handuo. Uncertainty bias and its correction in contingent valuation method: A case study of marine biodiversity valuation in Pingtan County[J].Resources Science, 2020, 42(7): 1338-1347.

Figures/Tables 6

Figure 1

Table 1

Table 2

Table 3

Table 4

Table 5

References 30

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选项A：确切金额		选项B：大致范围
选项A：确切金额		最低值		最高值
□0元	□50元	□0元	□50元	□0元	□50元
□5元	□100元	□5元	□100元	□5元	□100元
□10元	□200元	□10元	□200元	□10元	□200元
□15元	□300元	□15元	□300元	□15元	□300元
□20元	□400元	□20元	□400元	□20元	□400元
□30元	□500元	□30元	□500元	□30元	□500元
□40元	□其他金额：	□40元	□其他金额：	□40元	□其他金额：

变量名	变量含义	赋值方法
YEAR	在平潭当地居住年限/年	YEAR=居住年限
FRE	去海边频率	经常=4,偶尔=3,很少=2,从不=1
KNOW	对海洋生物多样性了解程度	非常了解=5,比较了解=4,一般=3,不太了解=2,完全不了解=1
CONCERN	对海洋生物多样性保护关注程度	非常关心=5,比较关心=4,一般=3,不太关心=2,完全不关心=1
CONTRI	是否同意居民应当为保护生物多样性贡献力量,如支付一定费用	非常同意=5,比较同意=4,一般=3,不太同意=2,完全不同意=1
SEX	性别	男=1,女=0
AGE	年龄/岁	20以下=1,20~30=2,31~45=3,46~60=4,61以上=5
EDU	受教育情况	初中及以下=1,职高/高中=2,大专=3,本科=4,研究生及以上=5
INC	年收入/万元	2以下=1,2~5=2,5~10=3,10~20=4,20以上=5

变量	Probit模型		OLS模型		Ordered Probit模型
变量	系数	标准差	系数	标准差	系数	标准差
常数项	3.272***	0.700	0.883***	0.148
YEAR	-0.018**	0.008	-0.004**	0.002	-0.020***	0.007
FRE	0.037	0.130	0.026	0.029	0.048	0.114
KNOW	-0.368***	0.128	-0.063**	0.026	-0.281**	0.112
CONCERN	-0.170*	0.101	-0.050**	0.022	-0.213**	0.088
CONTRI	0.006	0.115	0.008	0.025	0.039	0.098
SEX	-0.164	0.185	-0.043	0.041	-0.186	0.161
AGE	-0.188	0.135	-0.020	0.030	-0.039	0.117
EDU	-0.030	0.080	0.006	0.017	0.033	0.068
INC	-0.453***	0.095	-0.095***	0.019	-0.412***	0.084
Log likelihood	-140.673				-245.937
McFadden R²	0.206				0.125
F-statistic			8.077
Adjusted R²			0.199
N	258		258		258

变量	系数	标准差
C	-0.443	0.816
YEAR	-0.006	0.010
FRE	0.653***	0.167
KNOW	0.116	0.150
CONCERN	0.079	0.124
CONTRI	0.289**	0.127
SEX	-0.191	0.236
AGE	-0.249	0.175
EDU	0.135	0.106
INC	0.392***	0.122

变量	系数	标准差
C	-0.475	0.827
YEAR	-0.009	0.010
FRE	0.686***	0.162
KNOW	0.113	0.147
CONCERN	0.046	0.126
CONTRI	0.314**	0.140
SEX	-0.208	0.230
AGE	-0.214	0.167
EDU	0.154	0.097
INC	0.368***	0.109

Uncertainty bias and its correction in contingent valuation method: A case study of marine biodiversity valuation in Pingtan County

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