气候变化背景下人工造雪技术提升对中国滑雪季节长度的影响

doi:10.18402/resci.2020.06.17

Abstract

Abstract:

Under global warming conditions, artificial snowmaking has proved to be an effective adaptation measure to climate change for ski resorts. Based on the surface climate dataset (1981-2010) and new Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) RCPs scenarios, this study assessed the impact of snow-making technology improvement (snow could be produced at -2℃ rather than -5℃) on ski season length in China under climate change using the SkiSim 2.0 model. The results show that average ski season length in China would increase by 3%~12% with improved snowmaking machine, and 78% of ski areas in China could maintain a ski season of over 100 days even under the RCP 8.5 scenario in the 2080s. Ski resorts that are highly affected by climate change (for example, north, east and central regions) would receive more benefits from new technology than slightly affected areas (for example, northeast and northwest). Furthermore, geographical environmental conditions are the fundamental factors that affect the length of ski season. No matter whether snow-making technology is improved or not, the dividing line for 100-day ski season in China under climate change is Changbai Mountain-Yinshan Mountain-Qilian Mountain-Tianshan Mountain. For mitigating and adapting to climate change, more attention should be paid to technological innovation in artificial snowmaking to ensure sustainable development of China’s ski industry from the supply side.

Key words: climate change, ski resort, technology improvement, mitigation measures, SkiSim 2.0, China

FANG Yan, Daniel SCOTT, Robert STEIGER, WU Bihu, JIANG Yiyi. Impact of snow-making technology improvement on ski season length in China under climate change[J].Resources Science, 2020, 42(6): 1210-1222.

Figures/Tables 11

Table 1

Table 2

Table 3

Figure 1

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References 41

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度日因子/（mm ℃^{-1 .}d^-1）	区域	文献
1.4~6.9	中国东北（洮儿河流域）	尹雄锐等^[23]
3.1	乌鲁木齐河源1号冰川	刘时银等^[24]
3.4	天山（琼台兰冰川）	张勇等^[22]
5.9	横断山
8.5	唐古拉山（冬克玛底冰川）	谯程骏等^[25]
5.3	扎当冰川	吴倩如等^[26]
1.7	河西内陆河流域（石羊河）	高鑫等^[27]
4.0	河西内陆河流域（黑河）
2.4	河西内陆河流域（北大河）
3.4	河西内陆河流域（疏勒河）
4.1	河西内陆河流域（党河）

气温/℃	区域	文献
1.9~6.0	中国	韩春坛等^[28]
1.0~7.8	中国	Chen等^[29]
0.0~2.0	长江源区	刘俊峰等^[30]
0.0~3.0	三江源区	冯曦等^[31]
0.0 (1000 hPa)	北京	张琳娜等^[32]
-4.0 (850 hPa)
1.9~5.7	天山	张雪婷等^[33]

参数	设置	资料来源
滑雪所需的积雪深度（包括自然降雪和人工造雪）	30 cm	访谈;Scott等^[15];Abegg等^[34]
人工造雪时期	11月1日—次年4月1日	访谈;网络资料^?
人工造雪适宜温度	-5℃（现有）/-2℃（提高）	访谈;Snowathome^[5]
人工造雪量	10 cm/d	访谈;Steiger^[14]

Impact of snow-making technology improvement on ski season length in China under climate change

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区域	省份	RCP 4.5							RCP 8.5
		2020s		2050s		2080s			2020s		2050s		2080s
				现有技术	提升技术		现有技术	提升技术		现有技术	提升技术		现有技术	提升技术	现有技术	提升技术	现有技术	提升技术
华北	北京	-19	-7	-61	-21	-80	-39		-22	-8	-79	-37	-97	-86
	山西	-8	-4	-23	-11	-40	-16		-8	-5	-40	-17	-68	-54
	天津	-5	-4	-14	-10	-22	-15		-6	-5	-23	-16	-64	-35
	内蒙古	-1	-1	-4	-4	-6	-6		-1	0	-6	-6	-13	-12
	河北	-7	-3	-15	-7	-20	-13		-7	-2	-19	-13	-31	-27
东北	黑龙江	-1	-1	-4	-3	-5	-4		-2	-1	-6	-5	-10	-8
	吉林	-2	-1	-5	-3	-9	-6		-2	-1	-9	-5	-17	-14
	辽宁	-4	-4	-13	-10	-19	-13		-6	-5	-19	-14	-33	-32
西北	新疆	-2	-2	-5	-4	-7	-6		-2	-2	-8	-6	-16	-13
	甘肃	-5	-3	-9	-8	-13	-12		-4	-3	-13	-11	-25	-22
	宁夏	-3	-3	-10	-10	-14	-14		-3	-4	-14	-14	-30	-25
	青海	-1	-1	-5	-4	-8	-6		-6	-2	-8	-6	-21	-17
	陕西	-8	-5	-23	-11	-34	-17		-9	-6	-36	-17	-65	-41
华东	山东	-18	-7	-54	-23	-76	-39		-23	-7	-75	-38	-95	-85
华中	河南	-21	-8	-51	-20	-66	-33		-22	-8	-68	-35	-92	-75

区域	省份	RCP 4.5			RCP 8.5
区域	省份	2020s	2050s	2080s	2020s	2050s	2080s
华北	北京	29	47	45	31	46	12
	山西	13	22	34	13	33	20
	天津	8	11	15	9	15	35
	内蒙古	4	5	5	6	5	7
	河北	15	20	17	15	17	12
东北	黑龙江	4	4	5	4	4	6
	吉林	5	7	7	5	9	8
	辽宁	11	14	16	12	16	10
西北	新疆	5	6	7	5	7	8
	甘肃	10	10	9	10	10	11
	宁夏	11	11	10	11	11	15
	青海	5	7	8	6	8	10
	陕西	13	23	29	14	31	34
华东	山东	32	41	41	34	41	11
华中	河南	32	42	41	32	41	19

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