Resources Science ›› 2020, Vol. 42 ›› Issue (6): 1135-1147.doi: 10.18402/resci.2020.06.11

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The influence of vacancy rate on housing price: Based on panel data of 35 key cities

WANG Jie(), ZHANG Jiliang()   

  1. School of Economics, Nanjing University of Finance and Economics, Nanjing 210023, China
  • Received:2019-08-23 Revised:2020-03-01 Online:2020-06-25 Published:2020-08-25
  • Contact: ZHANG Jiliang;


Housing price has been a closely concerned issue of the government and the people. High vacancy rate under the high housing price is a common phenomenon, causing many concerns. However, whether the high vacancy rate can restrain the rise of housing price remains to be studied. For this reason, the authors took the average selling price of commercial housing in 35 key cities of China from 2007 to 2016 as the research object. By constructing a variable coefficient model with fixed influence, we analyzed the influence of housing vacancy rate and control variables on the fluctuation of housing price. The results are as follows. Vacancy rate is the main factor that caused the fluctuation of housing price in China, and the rise of vacancy rate restrained the rise of housing price to a certain extent. At the same time, housing price was also affected by other factors. The increase of land selling price was an important factor that induced the rise of housing price. Per capita income had a certain impact on housing price. The impact of population density on housing price in built-up areas was different. The fluctuation of housing price in different classes of cities was very different, which was mainly affected by vacancy rate. The vacancy rate of the first tier cities, second tier developed cities, and third tier cities had a greater negative effect on housing price. The land transfer price in the third tier cities had no significant effect on housing price. The population density of the first tier cities caused an upward thrust on the housing price. In conclusion, high vacancy rate was the main factor to restrain the rise of house price, and it was also the main reason for the difference of housing price fluctuation in different class of cities.

Key words: housing vacancy rate, housing price, land transfer price, panel data model, China