气候资金对受援国碳排放的影响

doi:10.18402/resci.2020.06.01

Abstract

Abstract:

In the context of increasingly more countries actively advocating and investing in global climate governance actions, accurately examining the carbon emission effect of climate finance is of great significance for promoting sustained assistance from developed countries, laying out the post-2020 climate action, and building a community with a shared future for mankind. Based on the AidData, OECD-DAC CRS, and WDI database, this study obtained a national panel dataset of 77 recipient countries from 1980 to 2014. By constructing static and dynamic panel models, a moderating effect model, and a panel threshold model, this study investigated the impact of global climate finance on carbon emissions of recipient countries, and tested the moderating effect of income level between the above two. The results show that: (1) In general, climate finance had a significant negative impact on recipient countries’ carbon emissions, and the income level of recipient countries had a significant moderating effect on the carbon emission effect of climate finance. (2) With the increase of recipient countries’ income level, the carbon emission effect of climate finance shows a nonlinear characteristic of “from significant carbon reduction to insignificant carbon increase effect”. The recipient countries that achieved carbon reduction were mainly a few African countries. (3) To evaluate whether climate finance can achieve carbon reduction effect, the interaction between climate finance and recipient countries’ production and investment needs to be taken into account. Based on the above results, this study provided policy implications in terms of actively urging the implementation of relevant climate finance commitments, promoting low-carbon economic growth in recipient countries, and fully engaging in global climate governance through China’s dual identity.

Key words: climate finance, carbon emissions, income level, moderating effect, threshold effect, global climate governance, recipient countries

SHE Qunzhi, WU Xiaoli, PAN An. Effects of climate finance on carbon emissions in recipient countries[J].Resources Science, 2020, 42(6): 1015-1026.

Figures/Tables 7

Figure 1

Table 1

Table 2

Table 3

Table 4

Table 5

Figure 2

References 44

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变量	具体含义	单位	观测值	均值	标准差	最小值	最大值
lnC	人均碳排放	kg/人	924	6.545	1.435	2.649	9.242
lncf	气候资金	美元	924	13.647	5.409	0.000	21.890
lny	人均收入	美元	924	7.038	1.106	4.692	9.730
lnkl	资本劳动比	美元/人	924	6.412	1.311	2.356	9.357
trade	贸易开放度	%	924	51.973	28.824	8.406	190.698
urban	城镇化水平	%	924	43.831	21.226	4.505	94.894

变量	（1）常规标准误	（2）稳健标准误	（3）差分GMM	（4）系统GMM
lnC _t_-1			0.450***	0.903***
lnC _t_-1			(13.63)	(53.14)
lncf _t_-1	-0.001	-0.001	-0.001**	-0.001**
lncf _t_-1	(-0.31)	(-0.63)	(-2.56)	(-2.15)
lny	0.966***	0.966***	0.501***	0.196***
lny	(7.67)	(12.97)	(5.88)	(2.78)
(lny)²	-0.037***	-0.037***	-0.028***	-0.015***
(lny)²	(-4.76)	(-10.99)	(-5.94)	(-4.70)
lnkl	0.078***	0.078***	0.100***	0.183***
lnkl	(2.80)	(2.95)	(3.90)	(5.84)
trade	0.005***	0.005***	0.003***	0.002***
trade	(8.88)	(7.58)	(7.98)	(4.49)
urban	0.006**	0.006***	0.004	0.007*
urban	(2.30)	(11.39)	(0.39)	(1.81)
常数项	0.445	0.445	1.491***	-0.881***
常数项	(0.92)	(1.05)	(4.32)	(-3.57)
观测值	847	847	770	847
国家数	77	77	77	77
AR（2）-p	-	-	0.324	0.207
Sargan	-	-	0.866	1.000

变量	（1）常规标准误	（2）稳健标准误	（3）差分GMM	（4）系统GMM
lnC _t_-1			0.493***	0.898***
lnC _t_-1			(13.99)	(48.37)
lncf _t_-1	-0.000	-0.000	-0.002**	-0.002***
lncf _t_-1	(-0.25)	(-0.66)	(-2.39)	(-3.05)
lny	1.016***	1.016***	0.412***	0.175*
lny	(7.90)	(10.72)	(4.89)	(1.95)
(lny)²	-0.042***	-0.042***	-0.026***	-0.016***
(lny)²	(-5.09)	(-7.92)	(-5.36)	(-4.03)
lncf _t_-1×lny	0.003*	0.003*	0.002***	0.002***
lncf _t_-1×lny	(1.83)	(1.88)	(2.78)	(3.14)
lnkl	0.087***	0.087***	0.135***	0.202***
lnkl	(3.08)	(3.12)	(4.97)	(5.30)
trade	0.005***	0.005***	0.002***	0.002***
trade	(8.74)	(7.15)	(5.52)	(4.23)
urban	0.006**	0.006***	0.014	0.005
urban	(2.21)	(9.71)	(1.46)	(1.24)
常数项	0.269	0.269	1.302***	-0.835***
常数项	(0.55)	(0.55)	(3.75)	(-2.84)
观测值	847	847	770	847
国家数	77	77	77	77
AR（2）-p	-	-	0.297	0.228
Sargan	-	-	0.988	1.000

门槛变量	门槛数	F值	P值	门槛值	95%置信区间
lny	单一	53.530***	0.000	6.263	（5.697, 6.325）
lny	双重	4.780	0.754	6.000	(5.973, 6.571)

门槛区间	估计参数	门槛区间	估计参数
lny ≤ 6.263	-0.007***	lny>6.263	0.002
lny ≤ 6.263	(-2.73)	lny>6.263	(0.90)

Effects of climate finance on carbon emissions in recipient countries

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