中国城市蔓延对绿色全要素生产率的影响

doi:10.18402/resci.2020.04.16

Abstract

Abstract:

： Improving the quality of urban development is the essence of high-quality economic development at the present stage. Urban sprawl in the process of urbanization in China has become an important factor that affects the quality of urban development. Using panel data of 285 cities in China from 2004 to 2017, this study empirically investigated the heterogeneous relationship between urban sprawl and green total factor productivity. The research found that: (1) Moderate urban sprawl improved green total factor productivity, while excessive urban sprawl inhibited or did not significantly affect green total factor productivity; (2) Considering regional differences of population agglomeration, urban sprawl had a prominent promoting effect on green total factor productivity in the eastern region, while having more inhibitory effects on the central and western regions; (3) As the economy exceeded the optimal agglomeration thresholds, the inverse correlation became a co-directional relationship. Furthermore, there was a significant inverted U-shaped threshold effect based on manufacturing agglomeration. However, in cities with a higher degree of service industry agglomeration, the promotional effect of urban sprawl is not significant. This study deepens the understanding of the basic pattern of urban sprawl affecting green development of cities. It provides a beneficial reference for the top-level design of high-quality urban development and is of significance for China’s promotion of leading urban agglomeration with central cities and new urbanization strategy.

Key words: urban sprawl, green total factor productivity, agglomeration, threshold effect, heterogeneous effects, Global Malmquist-Luenberger Index, China

SHAO Hanhua, XIA Haibo. The impact of urban sprawl on green total factor productivity in China[J].Resources Science, 2020, 42(4): 790-800.

Figures/Tables 6

Table 1

Table 2

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Table 5

Table 6

References 24

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因变量	门槛数	F值	P值	门槛估计值	临界值
因变量	门槛数	F值	P值	门槛估计值	1%	5%	10%
绿色全要素生产率	单一	11.975	0.114	0.168	19.569	14.820	12.645
	双重	5.977**	0.033	0.960	9.158	5.185	3.328
	三重	-1.204	0.650		5.534	4.211	3.127
绿色技术效率	单一	6.094	0.205	0.832	13.502	9.454	7.966
	双重	4.270**	0.019	0.833	5.201	2.838	2.107
	三重	6.143**	0.028	0.915	9.890	4.698	3.025
绿色技术进步	单一	39.327***	0.005	0.902	36.977	30.800	28.423
	双重	7.468**	0.022	0.906	8.636	6.092	4.885
	三重	5.381*	0.095	0.970	9.871	7.083	5.249

变量	绿色全要素生产率	绿色技术进步	绿色技术效率	蔓延指标替换	非国家中心城市
变量	模型1	模型2	模型3	模型4	模型5
pgdp	0.055** （9.46）	-0.021*** （-2.57）	0.010 （1.16）	0.064*** （9.13）	0.067*** （9.35）
serv	-0.001 （-1.41）	0.001 （1.61）	-0.002** （-2.37）	-0.003*** （-3.91）	-0.003*** （-3.69）
goin	0.124 （0.08）	1.631 （0.78）	0.760 （0.33）	0.159 （0.09）	0.705 （0.38）
fdi	0.229 （1.13）	-0.390 （-1.34）	0.107 （0.34）	0.440* （1.77）	0.485* （1.91）
sprawl_1	0.443** （2.26）	-0.079*** （-5.91）	0.006 （0.37）	-0.020 （-1.61）	0.482** （2.01）
sprawl_2	-0.021** （-2.34）	0.044 （1.07）	0.198*** （2.86）	0.118* （1.77）	-0.029** （-2.83）
sprawl_3	0.004 （0.99）	-0.048*** （-3.38）	0.034** （2.31）	0.703*** （8.61）	0.003 （0.87）
sprawl_4		0.004 （0.93）	-0.005 （-1.05）	0.0002 （0.16）
Constant	0.501*** （8.89）	1.246*** （15.30）	0.982*** （11.05）	0.464*** （6.66）	0.439*** （6.23）

区域	门槛数	F值	P值	门槛估计值	临界值
区域	门槛数	F值	P值	门槛估计值	1%	5%	10%
东部	单一	11.139***	0.003	0.698	9.339	5.038	3.614
	双重	9.705**	0.023	3.588	12.289	6.580	4.247
	三重	8.821**	0.033	3.978	13.200	7.644	5.386
中部	单一	2.988*	0.067	0.470	6.343	3.318	2.417
	双重	0.286	0.523		5.721	3.190	2.117
	三重	1.679	0.283		7.960	5.133	4.238
西部	单一	4.080*	0.100	0.311	12.725	7.217	4.097
	双重	9.802**	0.040	0.784	15.159	8.230	6.068
	三重	4.811**	0.043	1.156	34.055	4.475	2.456

变量	东部	中部	西部
变量	模型1	模型2	模型3
pgdp	0.086*** （5.98）	0.080*** （7.36）	0.056*** （3.93）
serv	-0.004*** （-3.29）	0.001 （0.99）	-0.005*** （-3.07）
goin	-2.463 （-0.88）	-2.274 （-0.67）	2.584 （0.76）
fdi	0.389 （1.25）	0.281 （0.67）	0.543 （0.55）
sprawl_1	0.066*** （3.25）	-0.069* （-1.76）	-0.150* （-1.75）
sprawl_2	0.009 （1.42）	-0.005 （-0.73）	0.030 （1.24）
sprawl_3	0.350*** （4.46）		-0.090*** （-3.13）
sprawl_4	0.056 （0.63）		0.001 （0.16）
Constant	0.271** （1.97）	0.176* （1.66）	0.656*** （4.53）

门槛变量	门槛数	F值	P值	门槛估计值	临界值
门槛变量	门槛数	F值	P值	门槛估计值	1%	5%	10%
经济集聚	单一	8.997**	0.012	88000	10.010	5.453	3.867
	双重	10.381***	0.004	340000	8.789	3.940	2.387
	三重	7.265**	0.018	490000	10.207	3.652	2.566
制造业集聚	单一	16.297***	0.000	46000	10.682	7.749	5.104
	双重	6.497**	0.020	53000	8.063	5.061	3.985
	三重	9.916**	0.012	140000	10.303	5.507	3.980
服务业集聚	单一	5.304**	0.018	34000	6.771	3.910	2.598
	双重	2.853*	0.064	35000	10.474	3.297	1.901
	三重	2.224	0.110		8.221	4.007	2.397

The impact of urban sprawl on green total factor productivity in China

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	经济集聚	制造业集聚	服务业集聚
	模型1	模型2	模型3
pgdp	0.062*** （8.29）	0.067*** （8.88）	0.061*** （8.31）
serv	-0.002*** （-3.19）	-0.002*** （-3.17）	-0.002*** （-3.40）
goin	-0.295 （-0.16）	-0.184 （-0.10）	-0.059 （-0.03）
fdi	0.472* （1.89）	0.473* （1.89）	0.478* （1.90）
sprawl_1	-0.009 （-1.50）	-0.006 （-0.94）	-0.007 （-1.17）
sprawl_2	0.009* （1.95）	0.052*** （3.49）	0.139* （1.78）
sprawl_3	-0.090*** （-3.05）	0.007 （1.49）	0.008 （1.64）
sprawl_4	0.177** （2.06）	-0.058*** （-3.34）
Constant	0.470*** （6.41）	0.421*** （5.76）	0.478*** （6.53）