区域经济增长与资源环境压力的关系研究进展

doi:10.18402/resci.2020.04.01

Abstract

Abstract:

The relationship between economic growth and resource-environmental pressure is an important research area for regional sustainable development. However, few studies have systematically summarized relevant research results within different theoretical contexts, and few have compared the pros and cons of different theories, methods, models, indicators, and evaluation systems. Therefore, it is difficult to determine their theoretical contributions. This article reviewed five kinds of theoretical models and empirical studies in this field. It also compared their theoretical connotations, methods, evaluation systems, and applicability. In addition, this article proposed the basic framework and key content of analysis on the relationship between regional economic growth and resource-environmental pressures. We aimed to provide some theoretical reference and technical support for advancing related research. The results show that: (1) The theories, methods, and indicators of this field have different advantages, disadvantages, and application scope. Relevant research should be carried out under the basic framework of testing the direction of causality → identifying the EKC turning point/decoupling state → assessing the eco-efficiency intensity → determining the coupling coordination phase. Regional sustainable development policies should be developed based on the idea of “direction regulation → turning point/state regulation → intensity regulation → system regulation.” (2) We should focus on method, model, and evaluation system optimization. Studies on discovering driving factors, mechanisms, and path selection should be emphasized. Furthermore, it is necessary to implement research on multi-case comparison, remote coupling, and theoretical association in the future.

Key words: economic growth, resource-environmental pressure, Granger causality, Environmental Kuznets Curve, decoupling, eco-efficiency, coupling coordination, research progress

PENG Hongsong, GUO Lijia, ZHANG Jinhe, ZHONG Shien, YU Hu, HAN Ya. Research progress and implication of the relationship between regional economic growth and resource-environmental pressure[J].Resources Science, 2020, 42(4): 593-606.

Figures/Tables 6

Figure 1

Table 1

Table 2

Table 3

Comparison of decoupling analysis models between regional economic growth and resource-environmental pressure"

模型方法	基本理念与类型划分	优缺点
OECD脱钩指数模型	基本理念：单位GDP资源环境压力的下降率类型划分：绝对脱钩、相对脱钩和未脱钩3类,相对脱钩与绝对脱钩的临界点即EKC拐点	优点：①容易理解;②对数据要求不高缺点：①存在经济繁荣与衰退两种情境下的脱钩类型划分,具体细分也不详细,不利于直观判断脱钩的状态和程度;②指标敏感性较强,结果易受基期选择的影响发生波动;③未考虑总量变化
变化量综合分析法	基本理念：经济增长与资源环境压力的弹性分析类型划分：强脱钩、弱脱钩、衰退性脱钩、强复钩、弱复钩、扩张性复钩6类	优点：①综合考虑了总量变化与相对量变化;②克服了OECD脱钩指数模型在基期选择上的困境和脱钩类型难以识别的局限,更详细地反映了脱钩状态和程度;③容易理解;④数据要求不高缺点：不能区分未脱钩与复钩的关系
Tapio脱钩弹性模型	基本理念：经济增长与资源环境压力的弹性分析类型划分：强脱钩、弱脱钩、衰退脱钩、强负脱钩、弱负脱钩、扩张负脱钩、增长连结、衰退连结8类	优点：①使用负脱钩的概念替换变化量综合分析法中的复钩,同时为避免过度解释脱钩弹性指数（DEI）的微小波动,将DEI=1±20％的变化仍视为未脱钩（连接）;②容易理解;③数据要求不高缺点：脱钩类型划分复杂,容易混淆
IGTX 模型	基本理念：基于IPAT方程的二者关系的定量表达类型划分：绝对脱钩、相对脱钩与未脱钩3类	优点：指标易计算,结果更易识别缺点：①很少使用,需要区分经济繁荣与衰退两种情境下的脱钩;②容易受到其他非环境因素的影响,研究周期越短,脱钩指数越易扭曲
计量分析方法	基本理念：建模原理和思想与以上方法不同,除包含经济发展与资源环境的关系外,模型中还可涵盖城市化、工业化、家庭收入等解释变量类型划分：无	优点：①方法更成熟,结果更精准;②函数方程形式多样缺点：①数据质量要求高;②变量选取主观性强,难以进行横向比较研究

Table 3

Table 4

Comparison of methods for measuring eco-efficiency between regional economic growth and resource-environmental pressure"

测度方法	方法亚类	优劣势与适用性
单一比值法	①产品/服务的价值（分子）与资源环境影响（分母）的比值 ②上述形式的倒数,类似于资源消耗和环境污染的强度指标	优点：①目前应用最广的测度方法,便于核算创造单位经济价值的资源环境成本,主要适用于研究单个项目或技术对象;②两种形式本质相同,物质流分析、能值分析、生命周期评价、生态足迹分析等方法,常用于测度产品/服务的价值或环境影响,也可归于此类缺点：①环境影响指标涉及的范围比较有限,只能表征某一类环境影响;②未能提供生态效率最优值,难以指导实践
指标体系法	熵权法层次分析法主成分分析法模糊综合评价法逼近理想解排序法	优点：构建包含经济和资源环境维度的指标体系,综合表征区域复合生态系统的发展水平和协调度缺点：需使用赋权方法解决资源环境维度指标的集成问题,无论主观赋权还是客观赋权均有局限,并可能导致效率评价结果有偏
模型法	数据包络分析	优点：①能够处理多投入、多产出并分解综合效率;②无需事先假定方程、估计方程参数与赋权,最大限度地保留了数据的原始信息;③易于比较效率值缺点：①将偏离生产前沿面即视为无效率,忽视了随机效应和测量误差,可能会高估无效率值;②有诸多技术细节易被忽视,如依据实际情况选择投入或产出导向,检验投入与产出变量的相关性,检验投入指标间、产出指标间的独立性,考虑决策单元的异质性,处置非期望产出及确保决策单元数是指标数的3倍等
	随机前沿分析	优点：考虑了随机变量,并将与生产前沿的偏差分解为随机误差（白噪声）和无效率,克服了DEA高估无效率值的缺点缺点：模型假设不当将直接导致结果有偏

Table 4

Figure 2

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作者	研究期	数据与方法	研究案例	基本结论
Appiah^[9]	1960—2015年	时间序列单位根、协整和格兰杰因果检验	加纳	真实GDP←能源消费
Alshehry等^[10]	1980—2011年	时间序列单位根、协整和格兰杰因果检验	沙特阿拉伯	GDP←能源消费、GDP?碳排
Cowan等^[11]	1990—2010年	面板格兰杰因果检验	金砖国家	GDP→耗电：南非;GDP?耗电：俄罗斯; GDP×耗电：中国、巴西、印度;GDP→碳排：南非;GDP←碳排：巴西;GDP?碳排：俄罗斯;GDP×碳排：印度、中国
Yoo等^[12]	1975—2006年	时间序列单位根、协整和格兰杰因果检验	7个拉丁美洲国家	GDP←耗电：阿根廷、巴西、智利、哥伦比亚、厄瓜多尔;GDP?耗电：委内瑞拉; GDP×耗电：秘鲁
Chen等^[13]	1971—2001年	时间序列单位根和格兰杰因果检验,面板单位根、协整和格兰杰因果检验	10个亚洲国家和地区	GDP→耗电：印度、新加坡、马来西亚、菲律宾;GDP←耗电：香港;GDP×耗电：韩国、印度尼西亚、台湾、泰国;不明确：中国
彭新育等^[14]	1990—2013年	时间序列单位根和格兰杰因果检验	中国广东省	GDP←能源消费
陈桂月等^[15]	1986—2009年	时间序列平稳性、协整和格兰杰因果检验	中国山西省	GDP→工业废弃物排放

作者	研究期	数据与方法	研究案例	基本结论
Xie等^[28]	2015年	截面二次对数函数空间自回归模型	中国249个城市	人均GDP和PM2.5浓度呈倒U形关系,拐点为25336.47元
Bimonte等^[29]	1980—2008年	面板二次对数函数回归模型	意大利20个地区	人均收入与人均土地消费呈倒U形关系
Zaman等^[30]	2005—2013年	面板二次对数函数回归模型	亚太国家、欧盟与高收入OECD成员国、非OECD成员国3类集团	碳排量与人均GDP呈倒U形关系
Lee等^[31]	2003—2010年	面板二次和三次函数固定效应模型	中国东、中、西、东北等4大地区	人均GDP和二氧化硫、废水排放呈倒U形或N形关系
Begum等^[32]	1970—2009年	时间序列二次对数函数回归模型	马来西亚	人均GDP与人均碳排呈U形关系
张月等^[33]	2002—2014年	面板三次对数函数回归模型	中国及中国8大地区	人均工业用水与人均GDP呈倒U形关系,各地区拐点因工业发展水平及经济状况而异
张宏等^[34]	2009—2013年的60个月	时间序列三次对数函数回归模型	周庄、锦溪与千灯古镇	周庄的污水、粪便、垃圾排放量与人均旅游收入分别呈U形曲线、U形曲线、单调上升线性关系,锦溪分别是倒U形、N形、N形曲线,千灯则是单调上升线性、倒U形曲线、线性上升关系

模型方法	基本理念与类型划分	优缺点
OECD脱钩指数模型	基本理念：单位GDP资源环境压力的下降率类型划分：绝对脱钩、相对脱钩和未脱钩3类,相对脱钩与绝对脱钩的临界点即EKC拐点	优点：①容易理解;②对数据要求不高缺点：①存在经济繁荣与衰退两种情境下的脱钩类型划分,具体细分也不详细,不利于直观判断脱钩的状态和程度;②指标敏感性较强,结果易受基期选择的影响发生波动;③未考虑总量变化
变化量综合分析法	基本理念：经济增长与资源环境压力的弹性分析类型划分：强脱钩、弱脱钩、衰退性脱钩、强复钩、弱复钩、扩张性复钩6类	优点：①综合考虑了总量变化与相对量变化;②克服了OECD脱钩指数模型在基期选择上的困境和脱钩类型难以识别的局限,更详细地反映了脱钩状态和程度;③容易理解;④数据要求不高缺点：不能区分未脱钩与复钩的关系
Tapio脱钩弹性模型	基本理念：经济增长与资源环境压力的弹性分析类型划分：强脱钩、弱脱钩、衰退脱钩、强负脱钩、弱负脱钩、扩张负脱钩、增长连结、衰退连结8类	优点：①使用负脱钩的概念替换变化量综合分析法中的复钩,同时为避免过度解释脱钩弹性指数（DEI）的微小波动,将DEI=1±20％的变化仍视为未脱钩（连接）;②容易理解;③数据要求不高缺点：脱钩类型划分复杂,容易混淆
IGTX 模型	基本理念：基于IPAT方程的二者关系的定量表达类型划分：绝对脱钩、相对脱钩与未脱钩3类	优点：指标易计算,结果更易识别缺点：①很少使用,需要区分经济繁荣与衰退两种情境下的脱钩;②容易受到其他非环境因素的影响,研究周期越短,脱钩指数越易扭曲
计量分析方法	基本理念：建模原理和思想与以上方法不同,除包含经济发展与资源环境的关系外,模型中还可涵盖城市化、工业化、家庭收入等解释变量类型划分：无	优点：①方法更成熟,结果更精准;②函数方程形式多样缺点：①数据质量要求高;②变量选取主观性强,难以进行横向比较研究

Research progress and implication of the relationship between regional economic growth and resource-environmental pressure

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