中国林木生物质能源替代煤炭的减排效益评估

doi:10.18402/resci.2020.03.12

Abstract

Abstract:

Substituting fossil fuels with bioenergy is one of the most promising options for energy transition in China, and abundant forest biomass plays an important role in this process. In this study, the mitigation effects and economic benefits from substituting wood pellets for coal in heat and power generation in China were investigated, based on a life-cycle assessment and economic contribution analysis using the system boundaries defined for the two energy systems in terms of greenhouse gas emissions and economic cost. The results suggest that: (1) When wood-based pellet replaces coal in heat and power generation, the life cycle energy consumption per unit of energy produced decreases (0.01-0.176 MJ), and the greenhouse gas emissions are significantly reduced if wood pellets are assumed to be carbon neutral; (2) Based on the average market prices of wood pellets and coal, the cost per unit heat or electricity generation by burning wood pellets is higher than that of coal (16.06-34.16 Yuan), because the energy used in wood pellets production is more costly; (3) The sensitivity analysis suggests that energy conversion efficiency, fuel energy content, and fuel price are the most important factors that affect the effectiveness of energy substitution; and reducing energy consumption and the overall cost for producing wood pellets is most effective for reducing the substitution cost and creating a win-win situation for both climate mitigation and economic development. The development and utilization of forest biomass play an important role in China’s energy structure transformation. This study can inform policy development from the aspects of emission reduction under carbon neutrality assumption, source of biomass, emission reduction efficiency, and financial subsidies.

Key words: wood biomass, wood pellet, fossil fuel, carbon neutrality, reduced emissions from energy substitution, economic benefit

GENG Aixin, PAN Wenqi, YANG Hongqiang. Quantifying the mitigating effects and benefits from substituting wood biomass for coal in energy production in China[J].Resources Science, 2020, 42(3): 536-547.

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References 44

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生物质能源用途及假设							减排效益评估		经济效益评估
可替代燃料			用途		碳中性	非碳中性	评估方法	减排效果	评估方法	经济效果
煤炭	石油	天然气	供热	供电	碳中性	非碳中性	评估方法	减排效果	评估方法	替代供能成本	替代减排成本
化石燃料平均值				√	√		LCA^[15]	减排50%~68%	-	-
√				√		√	LCA+市场效应+土地利用效应^[16]	减排74%~85%	-	-
√	√	√	√	√	√		LCA^[12]	减排81%~97%	LCC	油价较高时可行
√		√		√	√		LCA^[8]	减排83%~92%	LCC+非燃料可变成本		木质剩余物：30~65 $/t CO₂e 圆木制粒：100~170 $/t CO₂e
√				√		√	LCA^[13]	碳中性：减排 63%~94% 非碳中性：减排40%~62%	市场价格		67.55~78.8 $/t CO₂e
√				√		√	LCA^[21]	减排>93%	LCC+碳价	与煤价、运距及产量相关
√			√		√		LCA^[22]	减排94%	市场价格	5.03~6.58 $/GJ
	√	√	√			√	使用排放^[14]	每t木粒减排1.37万t CO₂e	运行成本	成本降低32.59%~67.05%

原料获取与燃料生产阶段		运输阶段				使用阶段
原料获取与燃料生产阶段		运输模式及比例^[31]/%	能源强度/（KJ/tkm）	运输距离/km	能源种类及比例/%	使用阶段
煤炭	开采效率97%^[31] 洗选效率95%^[31]	铁路（75）	120^[37]	651^[36]	柴油（30^[37]）	供电标准煤耗3.125 kW·h/kg^[38] 标准煤热值29.307 MJ/kg^[38]
		铁路（75）	120^[37]	651^[36]	电力（70^[37]）
		水路（17）	498^[39]	1477^[36]	燃料油（100^[32]）
		公路运输（8）	98^[39]	181^[36]	柴油（68^[32]）
		公路运输（8）	98^[39]	181^[36]	汽油（32^[32]）
木质颗粒燃料	采伐残余率25%^[22] 成粒率75.8%^[22]	公路运输（100）	98^[39]	180^[22]	柴油（68^[32]）	供电消耗4.4 kW·h/kg^[40] 木质颗粒热值18.84 MJ/kg^[40]

	市场价格 /（RMB/t）		能源热值		能源效率/%
煤炭	2019年1月	559.4~589	供热供电	29.31 MJ/kg 3.125 kW·h/kg	80
	2019年2月	587.4~607
	2019年3月	586~631.8
木质颗粒燃料	500~1300		供热供电	18.84 MJ/kg 4.4 kW·h /kg	80

能源系统	单位	能源消耗/MJ	温室气体排放/g CO₂e	温室气体细分
能源系统	单位	能源消耗/MJ	温室气体排放/g CO₂e	CO₂	N₂O	CH₄
木质颗粒	t	425.11（柴油）	31.61×10³	31.51×10³	67.28	35.88
木质颗粒	t	334.08（电能）	31.61×10³	31.51×10³	67.28	35.88
	MJ	0.04	1.676	1.670	0.004	0.002
	kW·h	0.17	7.183	7.160	0.015	0.008
煤炭	t	1020	131.00×10³	121.00×10³		10.00×10³
	MJ	0.04	4.47	4.13		0.34
	kW·h	0.33	41.92	38.72		3.20

能源系统	单位	能源消耗/MJ	温室气体排放/g CO₂e	温室气体细分
能源系统	单位	能源消耗/MJ	温室气体排放/g CO₂e	CO₂	N₂O	CH₄
木质颗粒	t	12.00（柴油）	1296.82	1280.00	11.06	5.76
	t	5.64（汽油）	1296.82	1280.00	11.06	5.76
	MJ	0.001	0.069	0.068	0.001	0.000
	kW·h	0.004	0.295	0.291	0.003	0.001
煤炭	t	18.54（柴油）	5271.68	5254.00	10.88	5.80
		49.72（燃料油）
		0.45（汽油）
		41.00（电能）
	MJ	0.006	0.180	0.180	0.000	0.000
	kW·h	0.020	1.685	1.680	0.003	0.002

Quantifying the mitigating effects and benefits from substituting wood biomass for coal in energy production in China

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能源系统	单位			温室气体细分
能源系统	单位	假设	温室气体排放/g CO₂e	CO₂	N₂O	CH₄
木质颗粒	MJ	碳中性	2.375	0.000	1.325	1.050
	MJ	非碳中性	124.015	121.640	1.325	1.050
	kW·h	碳中性	10.169	0.000	5.673	4.496
	kW·h	非碳中性	531.999	520.830	5.673	4.496
煤炭	MJ	118.782		118.250	0.497	0.035
煤炭	kW·h	1018.54		1014.00	4.24	0.30

影响因素	参数假设	敏感性分析
影响因素	参数假设		供热减排效率	供电减排效率	供热成本变化	供电成本变化
能源结构	木质颗粒燃料生命周期耗电+10%		+0.12%	+0.05%
	木质颗粒燃料生命周期耗能+10%		-0.14%	-0.07%
运输距离	木质颗粒燃料运输距离+10%		-0.03%	-0.01%
燃料使用效率	木质颗粒燃料最终使用效率+10%	碳中性假设	+0.18%	+0.09%	-15.90%	由正转负
燃料使用效率	木质颗粒燃料最终使用效率+10%	非碳中性假设	由负转正	+9.25%	-15.90%	由正转负
燃料热值	木质颗粒燃料热值+10%	碳中性假设	+0.32%		-15.90%
	木质颗粒燃料热值+10%	非碳中性假设	由负转正		-15.90%
	木质颗粒燃料供电效率+10%	碳中性假设		+0.15%		由正转负
	木质颗粒燃料供电效率+10%	非碳中性假设		+8.88%		由正转负
燃料价格	木质颗粒燃料价格+10%				+17.49%	+159%

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