俄罗斯环北极地区地表径流变化及其原因

doi:10.18402/resci.2020.02.13

Abstract

Abstract:

Using the surface runoff data from the Global Runoff Data Base (GRDB) and the Arctic Great Rivers Observatory (ArcticGRO), this study analyzed the surface runoff variation characteristics of the six major river basins in the pan-Arctic region of Russia since 1930, and summarized the impacts of climate change and human activities on the surface runoff. The results provide a theoretical basis to further the scientific understanding of the runoff changes in the Arctic region of Russia under the background of climate change and increasing human activities, and for the rational development and utilization of water resources in the region. The results show that the annual runoff of the Severnaja Dvina, Pechora, Ob, Yenisei, Lena, and Kolyma Rivers increased at a rate of 1.53 m ³/s, 7.27 m ³/s, 15.37 m ³/s, 19.59 m ³/s, 38.41 m ³/s, and 21.15 m ³/s, respectively. The seasonal distribution characteristics of runoff are characterized by a decrease in flood peak flow during spring and summer, and an increase in runoff during winter. Seasonal distribution of surface runoff tended to be more even during the year. The change in annual runoff is mainly affected by climate change. In contrast, human activities have little effect on annual runoff in most areas. The two dominant factors, climate change and human activities, jointly drive the change in the annual distribution of runoff. Annual runoff of these rivers has increased as a result of global warming, while the annual distribution of runoff tends to be uniform under the combined effects of climate change and human activities.

Key words: surface runoff, climate change, human activities, pan-Arctic region, Russia

WANG Guan, CHEN Hanru, WANG Ping, WANG Tianye, YU Jingjie, LIU Changming, YANG Linsheng. Surface runoff changes and their causes in the Russian pan-Arctic Region[J].Resources Science, 2020, 42(2): 346-357.

Figures/Tables 7

Figure 1

Table 1

Table 2

Figure 2

Figure 3

Table 3

Figure 4

References 53

[1]	李丕学 . 北极径流变化的关键气候因子及其对北冰洋海冰变化影响的研究[D]. 山东: 中国海洋大学, 2009.
	[ Li P X . Dominant Climate Factors Influencing the Arctic Runoff and Association between the Runoff and Arctic Sea Ice[D]. Shandong: Ocean University of China, 2009.]
[2]	Walsh J E . The role of sea ice in climatic variability: Theories and evidence[J]. Atmosphere-Ocean, 1983,21(3):229-242.
[3]	Barry R G, Serreze M C, Maslanik J A , et al. The Arctic Sea Ice-climate system: Observations and modeling[J]. Reviews of Geophysics, 1993,31(4):397-422.
[4]	Aagaard K, Carmack E C . The role of sea ice and other fresh water in the Arctic circulation[J]. Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans, 1989,94(C10):14485-14498.
[5]	魏立新 . 北极海冰变化及其气候效应研究[D]. 青岛: 中国海洋大学, 2008.
	[ Wei L X . Study on the Variation of Arctic Sea Ice and Its Effect on Global Climate[D]. Qingdao: Ocean University of China, 2008.]
[6]	Screen J A . Climate science: Far-flung effects of Arctic warming[J]. Nature Geoscience, 2017,10(4):253-254.
[7]	Parkinson C L, Cavalieri D J, Gloersen P , et al. Arctic sea ice extents, areas, and trends, 1978-1996[J]. Journal of Geophysical Research, 1999,104(C9):20837-20856.
[8]	Morison J, Aagaard K, Steele M . Recent environmental changes in the Arctic: A review[J]. Arctic, 2000,53(4):359-371.
[9]	Lewis E L, Jones E P, Lemke P , et al. The Freshwater Budget of the Arctic Ocean[C]. Dordrecht: Springer, 2000.
[10]	Peterson B J, Holmes R M, Mcclelland J W , et al. Increasing river discharge to the arctic ocean[J]. Science, 2002,298(5601):2171-2173.
[11]	Magritsky D V, Frolova N L, Evstigneev V M , et al. Long-term changes of river water inflow into the seas of the Russian Arctic sector[J]. Polarforschung, 2018,87(2):177-194.
[12]	White D, Hinzman L, Alessa L , et al. The arctic freshwater system: Changes and impacts[J]. Journal of Geophysical Research: Biogeosciences, 2007, DOI: 10.1029/2006JG000353.
[13]	Carmack E C, Yamamoto-Kawai M, Haine T W N , et al. Freshwater and its role in the Arctic Marine System: Sources, disposition, storage, export, and physical and biogeochemical consequences in the Arctic and global oceans[J]. Journal of Geophysical Research: Biogeosciences, 2016,121(3):675-717.
[14]	Mcphee M G, Stanton T P, Morison J H , et al. Freshening of the upper ocean in the Arctic: Is perennial sea ice disappearing?[J]. Geophysical Research Letters, 1998,25(10):1729-1732.
[15]	Steele M, Boyd T . Retreat of the cold halocline layer in the Arctic Ocean[J]. Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans, 1998,103(C5):10419-10435.
[16]	Stokstad E . River flow could derail crucial ocean current[J]. Science, 2002, DOI: 10. 1126/science. 298. 5601. 2110a.
[17]	Vellinga M, Wood R A . Global climatic impacts of a collapse of the atlantic thermohaline circulation[J]. Climatic Change, 2002,54(3):251-267.
[18]	王平, 王田野, 王冠 , 等. 西伯利亚淡水资源格局与合作开发潜力分析[J]. 资源科学, 2018,40(11):2186-2194.
	[ Wang P, Wang T Y, Wang G , et al. Spatial distribution and potential exploration of water resources in Siberia[J]. Resources Science, 2018,40(11):2186-2194.]
[19]	Bring A, Fedorova I, Dibike Y , et al. Arctic terrestrial hydrology: A synjournal of processes, regional effects, and research challenges[J]. Journal of Geophysical Research: Biogeosciences, 2016,121(3):621-649.
[20]	Bring A, Shiklomanov A, Lammers R B . Pan-Arctic river discharge: Prioritizing monitoring of future climate change hot spots[J]. Earth’s Future, 2017,5(1):72-92.
[21]	Mcclelland J W, Holmes R M, Peterson B J , et al. Increasing river discharge in the Eurasian Arctic: Consideration of dams, permafrost thaw, and fires as potential agents of change[J]. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 2004, DOI: 10. 1029/2004j d004583.
[22]	Shiklomanov I A, Babkin V I, Balonishnikov Z A . Water resources, their use, and water availability in Russia: Current estimates and forecasts[J]. Water Resources, 2011,38(2):139-148.
[23]	Gelfan A, Gustafsson D, Motovilov Y , et al. Climate change impact on the water regime of two great Arctic rivers: Modeling and uncertainty issues[J]. Climatic Change, 2017,141(3):499-515.
[24]	Overeem I, Syvitski J P M. Shifting discharge peaks in Arctic rivers, 1977-2007[J]. Geografiska Annaler: Series A, Physical Geography, 2010,92(2):285-296.
[25]	Johnston S E, Shorina N, Bulygina E , et al. Flux and seasonality of dissolved organic matter from the Northern Dvina (Severnaya Dvina) River, Russia[J]. Journal of Geophysical Research: Biogeosciences, 2018,123(3):1041-1056.
[26]	Bobrovitskaya N N, Kokorev A V, Lemeshko N A . Regional patterns in recent trends in sediment yields of Eurasian and Siberian rivers[J]. Global and Planetary Change, 2003,39(1-2):127-146.
[27]	Richter-Menge J, Druckenmiller M L, Jeffries M , et al. Arctic Report Card 2019[EB/OL]. (2019-12-10) [2020-02-05].
[28]	Goldman C R, Kumagai M, Robarts R D . Climatic Change and Global Warming of Inland Waters[C]. Chichester: Robarts Wiley-Blackwell, 2012.
[29]	Lammers R B, Shiklomanov A I, Vörösmarty C J , et al. Assessment of contemporary Arctic river runoff based on observational discharge records[J]. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 2001,106(D4):3321-3334.
[30]	Serreze M C, Bromwich D H, Clark M P , et al. Large-scale hydro-climatology of the terrestrial Arctic drainage system[J]. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 2003, DOI: 10. 1029/2001jd 000919.
[31]	Yang D, Kane D L, Hinzman L D , et al. Siberian Lena River hydrologic regime and recent change[J]. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 2002, DOI: 10.1029/2002JD002542.
[32]	Yang D Q, Ye B S, Kane D L . Streamflow changes over Siberian Yenisei River Basin[J]. Journal of Hydrology, 2004,296(1-4):59-80.
[33]	Karl T R, Arguez A, Huang B , et al. Possible artifacts of data biases in the recent global surface warming hiatus[J]. Science, 2015,348(6242):1469-1472.
[34]	Wu P, Wood R, Stott P . Human influence on increasing Arctic river discharges[J]. Geophysical Research Letters, 2005, DOI: 10. 1029/2004GL021570.
[35]	Vihma T, Screen J, Tjernström M , et al. The atmospheric role in the Arctic water cycle: A review on processes, past and future changes, and their impacts[J]. Journal of Geophysical Research: Biogeosciences, 2016,121(3):586-620.
[36]	Gatak D, Deser C, Frei A , et al. Simulated Siberian snow cover response to observed Arctic sea ice loss, 1979-2008[J]. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 2012, DOI: 10.1029/2012JD 018047.
[37]	Silverstein R P, Aryal S K, Durrant J , et al. Climate change and runoff in south-western Australia[J]. Journal of Hydrology, 2012,475:441-455.
[38]	Lawrence D M, Slater A G . A projection of severe near-surface permafrost degradation during the 21st century[J]. Geophysical Research Letters, 2005, DOI: 10.1029/2005gl025080.
[39]	周京武, 阿不力米提·阿不力克木, 毛炜峄 , 等. 天山南坡清水河流域径流过程对气候变化的响应[J]. 冰川冻土, 2014,36(3):685-690.
	[ Zhou J W, Abulimiti A, Mao W Y , et al. The responses of the runoff processes to climate change in the Qingshuihe River watershed on the southern slope of Tianshan Mountains[J]. Journal of Glaciology and Geocryology, 2014,36(3):685-690.]
[40]	Bulygina O N, Razuvaev V N, Korshunova N N . Changes in snow cover over Northern Eurasia in the last few decades[J]. Environmental Research Letters, 2009, DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/4/4/045026.
[41]	常娟, 王根绪, 高永恒 , 等. 青藏高原多年冻土区积雪对沼泽、草甸浅层土壤水热过程的影响[J]. 生态学报, 2012,32(23):7289-7301.
	[ Chang J, Wang G X, Gao Y H , et al. Impacts of snow cover change on soil water-heat processes of swamp and meadow in Permagrost Region, Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau[J]. Acta Ecologica Sinica, 2012,32(23):7289-7301.]
[42]	Tananaev N I, Makarieva O M, Lebedeva L S . Trends in annual and extreme flows in the Lena River basin, Northern Eurasia[J]. Geophysical Research Letters, 2016,43(20):10764-10772.
[43]	Brown R D, Derksen C . Is Eurasian October snow cover extent increasing?[J]. Environmental Research Letters, 2013, DOI: 10.088/1748-9326/8/2/024006.
[44]	丁永建, 张世强 . 冰冻圈水循环在全球尺度的水文效应[J]. 科学通报, 2015,60(7):593-602.
	[ Ding Y J, Zhang S Q . The hydrological impact of cryosphere water cycle on global-scale water cycle[J]. Chinese Science Bulletin, 2015,60(7):593-602.]
[45]	Beltaos S, Prowse T . River-ice hydrology in a shrinking cryosphere[J]. Hydrological Processes, 2009,23(1):122-144.
[46]	Rawlins M A, Steele M, Holland M M , et al. Analysis of the arctic system for freshwater cycle intensification: Observations and expectations[J]. Journal of Climate, 2010,23(21):5715-5737.
[47]	Zhang K, Kimball J S, Mu Q , et al. Satellite based analysis of northern ET trends and associated changes in the regional water balance from 1983 to 2005[J]. Journal of Hydrology, 2009,379(1-2):92-110.
[48]	Koronkevich N I, Barabanova E A, Georgiadi A G , et al. Anthropogenic impacts on the water resources of the Russian Arctic Basin Rivers[J]. Geography and Natural Resources, 2019,40(1):22-29.
[49]	Magritskii D V . Anthropogenic impact on the runoff of Russian rivers emptying into the Arctic Ocean[J]. Water Resources, 2008,35(1):1-14.
[50]	Avakyan A B, Sharapov V A . Reservoirs of hydroelectric stations of the USSR[J]. Hydrotechnical Construction, 1970,4(4):375-380.
[51]	熊琛然, 王礼茂, 张超 , 等. 俄罗斯与中日两国能源地缘经济合作关系评价[J]. 资源科学, 2019,41(9):1665-1674
	[ Xiong C R, Wang L M, Zhang C , et al. Evaluation on energy geo-economics cooperation relations of Russia with China and Japan[J]. Resources Science, 2019,41(9):1665-1674.]
[52]	杨洋, 董锁成, 李泽红 . 中蒙俄经济走廊背景下中俄能源合作进展、驱动力、挑战及对策[J]. 资源科学, 2018,40(2):237-249.
	[ Yang Y, Dong S C, Li Z H . Progress, driving forces and challenges of Sino-Russian energy cooperation under the China-Mongolia-Russia economic corridor[J]. Resources Science, 2018,40(2):237-249.]
[53]	巴兰尼科娃 А О, 程红泽 . 俄中在北极地区的协作: 问题与前景[J]. 西伯利亚研究, 2015,42(1):21-22.
	[ Barannikova A O, Cheng H Z . Russian-Chinese collaboration in the Arctic: Problems and prospects[J]. Siberian Studies, 2015,42(1):21-22.]

河流	站点名称	经度	纬度	年均径流量/（m³/s）	流域面积/（10³ km²）	径流数据时间序列
北德维纳河	UST'-PINEGA	41.92°E	64.13°N	3170	348	1930—2018年
伯朝拉河	UST'-TSIL'MA	52.28°E	65.42°N	3490	248	1932—2018年
鄂毕河	SALEKHARD	66.60°E	66.63°N	12700	2953	1930—2018年
叶尼塞河	IGARKA	86.48°E	67.43°N	18700	2440	1936—2018年
勒拿河	KYUSYUR	127.39°E	70.68°N	17200	2430	1935—2018年
科雷马河	KOLYMSKOYE	158.72°E	68.73°N	3300	526	1978—2018年

	春		夏		秋		冬		年		Cv
	k (m³/s/a)	p	k (m³/s/a)	p	k (m³/s/a)	p	k (m³/s/a)	p	k (m³/s/a)	p	Cv
北德维纳河	11.40	0.03*	-4.95	0.34	1.04	0.79	1.74	0.23	1.53	0.52	0.17
伯朝拉河	16.80	0.03*	1.23	0.90	5.28	0.16	3.40	0.00**	7.27	0.01**	0.15
鄂毕河	38.51	0.00**	-1.84	0.93	8.63	0.45	18.32	0.00**	15.37	0.06*	0.15
叶尼塞河	68.42	0.01**	-71.72	0.02*	15.55	0.19	70.77	0.00**	19.59	0.01**	0.09
勒拿河	76.47	0.00**	11.13	0.68	38.70	0.02*	27.14	0.00**	38.41	0.06*	0.13
科雷马河	21.15	0.03*	-13.73	0.72	27.59	0.03*	5.43	0.00**	9.92	0.35	0.24

		1930—1959年	1960—1989年	1990—2018年
北德维纳河	春/%	43.56	44.15	48.23
	夏/%	30.00	29.31	26.52
	秋/%	18.53	17.78	16.74
	冬/%	7.91	8.76	8.51
伯朝拉河	春/%	25.67	23.15	31.64
	夏/%	49.86	52.77	43.69
	秋/%	19.30	18.34	18.66
	冬/%	5.17	5.74	6.02
鄂毕河	春/%	14.02	14.37	17.94
	夏/%	56.60	56.40	51.81
	秋/%	20.78	19.67	20.08
	冬/%	8.60	9.56	10.17
叶尼塞河	春/%	18.30	20.24	23.25
	夏/%	56.60	52.07	47.11
	秋/%	18.62	18.06	18.40
	冬/%	6.48	9.63	11.24
勒拿河	春/%	3.74	5.03	8.89
	夏/%	70.44	70.64	63.63
	秋/%	22.23	20.31	22.22
	冬/%	3.60	4.02	5.26
科雷马河	春/%	—	3.99	8.40
	夏/%	—	76.53	67.01
	秋/%	—	17.68	21.79
	冬/%	—	1.80	2.80

Surface runoff changes and their causes in the Russian pan-Arctic Region

RichHTML

PDF (PC)

Like

Knowledge

Cited

Abstract

Cite this article

share this article

Figures/Tables 7

References 53

Related Articles 15

Metrics

Comments

Recommended 0

[1]	LIU Chuanying, HUANG Jixia, WANG Li, YANG Linsheng, GE Quansheng. Spatial pattern and accessibility of Russian ski resorts [J]. Resources Science, 2021, 43(1): 197-208.
[2]	FANG Yan, Daniel SCOTT, Robert STEIGER, WU Bihu, JIANG Yiyi. Impact of snow-making technology improvement on ski season length in China under climate change [J]. Resources Science, 2020, 42(6): 1210-1222.
[3]	ZHANG Huabing, ZHEN Yan, WU Feier, LI Yufeng, ZHANG Yanan. Relationship between habitat quality change and the expansion of Spartina alterniflora in the coastal area: Taking Yancheng National Nature Reserve in Jiangsu Province as an example [J]. Resources Science, 2020, 42(5): 1004-1014.
[4]	GUO Mengyao, SHE Dunxian, ZHANG Liping, TANG Rouxin, ZHAO Pengyan. Climate explanation of the potential evapotranspiration changes in Weihe River Basin [J]. Resources Science, 2020, 42(5): 907-919.
[5]	HUANG Qiwei, LIU Shiqi, WANG Ping, WANG Tianye, YU Jingjie, CHEN Xiaolong, YANG Linsheng. Spatiotemporal variability of temperature and precipitation in typical Pan-Arctic basins, 1936-2018 [J]. Resources Science, 2020, 42(11): 2119-2131.
[6]	ZHENG Jingyun, WEN Yanjun, FANG Xiuqi. Changes of climate and land cover in the middle and lower reaches of the Yellow River over the past 2000 years [J]. Resources Science, 2020, 42(1): 3-19.
[7]	XIONG Chenran,WANG Limao,ZHANG Chao,QU Qiushi,XIANG Ning. Evaluation on energy geo-economics cooperation relations of Russia with China and Japan [J]. Resources Science, 2019, 41(9): 1665-1674.
[8]	Rong A, Qige BI, Zhenhua DONG. Change of grassland vegetation and driving factors based on MODIS/NDVI in Xilingol, China [J]. Resources Science, 2019, 41(7): 1374-1386.
[9]	Yang YANG, Suocheng DONG, Fujia LI, Hao CHENG, Qian LIU, Zehong LI, Yu LI. Study on the coordination mechanism between strategies of Northeast China revitalization and development of RussianFar East and Baikal region [J]. Resources Science, 2019, 41(1): 43-52.
[10]	Libo CHANG, Yaofeng LUO, Jinlong LIU. Hani minority social-ecological system vulnerability assessment to climate change——a case study of Hani minority rural community in Honghe Prefecture, Yunnan Province [J]. Resources Science, 2018, 40(9): 1787-1799.
[11]	Yanyun XIANG, Yaning CHEN, Qifei ZHANG, Wei BIAN. Trends of snow cover and streamflow variation in Kaidu River and their influential factors [J]. Resources Science, 2018, 40(9): 1855-1865.
[12]	Yang YANG, Suocheng DONG, Zehong LI. Progress, driving forces and challenges of Sino-Russian energy cooperation under the China-Mongolia-Russia economic corridor [J]. Resources Science, 2018, 40(2): 237-249.
[13]	Zehong LI, Jingnan LI, Yang YANG, A. Kolosov Vladimir, Yang REN, Bazarzhapov Tcogto, Feng CHEN. Sino-Russian natural gas trade security structure and situation [J]. Resources Science, 2018, 40(11): 2143-2153.
[14]	Yulong YAO, Bin SHAO, Zehong LI. Sino-Russian forestry cooperation pattern and resource potential under "the Belt and Road" initiative [J]. Resources Science, 2018, 40(11): 2153-2167.
[15]	Guan WANG, Ping WANG, Tianye WANG, Zehong LI, Jingjie YU, Changming LIU, M. V. Bolgov. The variation of Lake Baikal water level and causal analysis since 1900 [J]. Resources Science, 2018, 40(11): 2177-2186.