长江经济带外向型经济空间溢出效应

doi:10.18402/resci.2019.10.10

Abstract

Abstract:

The Yangtze River Economic Belt has an important strategic position in the regional development in China, starting from the partition and macro level. Studying the spatial spillover effects of the export-oriented economic development in the Yangtze River Economic Belt is conducive to enhancing the export-oriented economic development level among the upstream, middle and downstream reach area, and also provides references for the new pattern of opening-up at the early stage in the Yangtze River Economic Belt. Based on the weight matrices of neighborhood relation, geographical distance, and economic gravity, and by constructing spatial econometric models for the regional and the sub-regional levels, this study estimated the spatial spillover effects of export-oriented economic development in the Yangtze River Economic Belt from 2005 to 2017. The results show that: (1) The spatial agglomeration characteristics of export-oriented economic development in the Yangtze River Economic Belt is increasingly clear with the weight matrices of neighborhood relation, geographical distance, and economic gravity. However, the level of export-oriented economic development of each municipality tends to be influenced by the adjacent municipalities. (2) At the regional level, the export-oriented economic development in the Yangtze River Economic Belt presents a significant positive spatial spillover effect. The proportion of the tertiary industry is the vital factor in promoting the level of export-oriented economic development in the Yangtze River Economic belt. (3) At the sub-regional level, there remain obvious differences among the upper, middle, and lower reach areas in the influencing factors of export-oriented economic development. Regional economic policy presents most significant effect in the upper-reach area. In the middle-reach area, developing the tertiary industry can promote the development level of export-oriented economy significantly. Traffic connectivity index has the most significant positive impacts in the lower-reach area. Based on these results, some suggestions for promoting export-oriented economic development level in the Yangtze River Economic Belt are put forward.

Key words: opening-up, export-oriented economy, overall spatial spillover effects, sub-regional spatial spillover effects, spatial econometric model, Yangtze River Economic Belt

CAI Bingbing,ZHAO Wei,LI Zhengyang,YANG Hui. Spatial spillover effects of export-oriented economic development in the Yangtze River Economic Belt[J].Resources Science, 2019, 41(10): 1871-1885.

Figures/Tables 10

Figure 1

Table 1

Figure 2

Table 2

Table 3

Regional preferential economic policies in the Yangtze River Economic Belt, 2005-2017"

年份	类型	区域	年份	类型	区域
——	NNA	上海			九江、赣州、吉安、上饶、黄石、
——	CNET	上海（5个）、南京（3个）、南通、			重庆、广安、德阳、遵义
		连云港、苏州（2个）、扬州、盐城、	2010	CNHTI	宿州、芜湖、新余、宜昌
		无锡、杭州（3个）、宁波（2个）、	2011	NNA	舟山
		温州、湖州、无锡、芜湖、合肥、	2011	CNET	宿州（2个）、嘉兴、铜陵、滁州、
		南昌、武汉、长沙、重庆（2个）、			池州、萍乡、荆州、湘潭、曲靖
		成都、贵阳、昆明	2011	NSRTD	金华
——	FAP	上海、南京、杭州、宁波、温州、	2011	CNHTI	上海、无锡、益阳
		合肥、黄山、南昌、武汉、长沙、	2012	CNET	南通、泰州、宿州、金华、绍兴、
		张家界、重庆、成都、贵阳、昆明			杭州、南昌、鄂州、十堰、遂宁、
——	FWP	上海、南京、连云港、南通、苏州			绵阳、广元
		（4个）、镇江、无锡、泰州、常州、	2012	FWP	泰州
		宁波、舟山、温州、台州、嘉兴、	2012	NSRTD	温州
		芜湖、铜陵、安庆、马鞍山、九江、	2012	CNHTI	常州、鹰潭、衡阳、乐山
		武汉、黄石、岳阳	2013	CNET	上海
——	CNHTI	南京、徐州、宿州、常州、无锡、	2013	CNET	上海、宿迁、南通（2个）、无锡、
		徐州、合肥、蚌埠、南昌、景德镇、			苏州、宿迁、嘉兴、杭州、六安、
		武汉、襄阳、孝感、长沙、株洲、			宣城、安庆、宜春、赣州（2个）、
		重庆、成都、自贡、绵阳、贵阳、			娄底、宜宾、内江、昆明
		昆明、玉溪	2013	NSRTD	南通
2005	CNET	湖州	2013	CNHTI	南通、衢州、荆门
2005	FAP	宜昌	2014	NNA	贵阳、安顺
2005	FWP	池州	2014	CNET	宿州、宁波、衢州、丽水、宣城、
2005	NSRTD	上海			长沙
2006	CNET	长沙	2014	FAP	金华、常州、淮安
2006	FWP	盐城	2014	FWP	南通（2个）
2006	CNHTI	上海、常熟、马鞍山	2014	CNHTI	镇江
2007	FAP	盐城	2015	NNA	长沙、南京、昆明
2007	NUA	武汉城市圈、长株潭城市群	2015	FAP	连云港、南通、扬州
2008	CNET	马鞍山	2015	NUA	长江中游城市群
2008	FWP	南通	2015	CNHTI	盐城、连云港、扬州、杭州、嘉兴、
2008	FAP	徐州、无锡			抚州、吉安、赣州、随州、郴州、
2009	FRP	上海			重庆、泸州、德阳、攀枝花
2009	CNHTI	泰州、湘潭	2016	NNA	南昌、九江
2010	NNA	重庆	2016	NUA	长三角城市群、成渝城市群
2010	FWP	重庆	2016	CNHTI	湖州
2010	CNET	常熟、淮安、徐州、镇江、宿州、	2017	CNHTI	淮安、宿迁、铜陵、咸宁、常德、
		襄阳、武汉、岳阳、常德、长沙、			内江
		金华、嘉兴、宁波、绍兴、安庆、

Table 3

Table 4

Table 5

Table 6

Table 7

Table 8

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系统层(权重)	指标层	计算方法	权重	单位
外贸层面（0.396）	人均外贸额	进出口贸易总额/总人口	0.158	美元
	进口依存度	进口总额/GDP	0.139	%
	出口依存度	出口总额/GDP	0.010	%
外资层面（0.133）	人均实际使用外商投资额	实际使用外商投资额/总人口	0.080	美元
外资层面（0.133）	投资依存度	实际使用外商投资额/GDP	0.048	%
对外经济层面（0.162）	人均对外经济合作营业额	对外经济合作营业额/总人口	0.112	美元
对外经济层面（0.162）	外经依存度	对外经济合作营业额/GDP	0.050	%
旅游层面（0.309）	人均旅游外汇收入	旅游外汇收入/入境旅游人数	0.160	美元
旅游层面（0.309）	旅游依存度	旅游外汇收入/GDP	0.149	%

符号	变量	变量说明	符号	变量	变量说明
PGDP	人均国内生产总值	反映经济实力	RS	科技投入强度	反映政府科技投入
PFI	人均固定资产投资额	反映投资强度	TC	交通连接度指数	反映交通便利程度
SI	第二产业比重	反映产业结构	LRC	与省会城市的区位关系	反映区位条件
TI	第三产业比重	反映产业结构	LRA	与一类空运口岸城市的区位关系	反映区位条件
PRS	人均社会消费品零售额	反映消费水平	LRW	与重要港口城市的区位关系	反映区位条件
VPT	人均邮电业务量	反映通讯水平	RP	区域经济政策	反映政府调控

年份	邻近权重			地理距离权重			经济引力模型权重
年份	Moran’s I	P值	Z值	Moran’s I	P值	Z值	Moran’s I	P值	Z值
2005	0.505	0.000	7.394	0.456	0.000	10.485	0.433	0.000	9.867
2006	0.490	0.000	7.173	0.456	0.000	10.489	0.436	0.000	9.930
2007	0.512	0.000	7.493	0.466	0.000	10.710	0.447	0.000	10.172
2008	0.537	0.000	7.842	0.479	0.000	10.996	0.451	0.000	10.261
2009	0.528	0.000	7.712	0.493	0.000	11.313	0.467	0.000	10.611
2010	0.519	0.000	7.594	0.494	0.000	11.344	0.475	0.000	10.784
2011	0.497	0.000	7.273	0.475	0.000	10.924	0.449	0.000	10.219
2012	0.526	0.000	7.692	0.504	0.000	11.568	0.487	0.000	11.059
2013	0.516	0.000	7.55	0.492	0.000	11.282	0.464	0.000	10.545
2014	0.525	0.000	7.672	0.489	0.000	11.235	0.459	0.000	10.440
2015	0.543	0.000	7.933	0.506	0.000	11.608	0.470	0.000	10.688
2016	0.610	0.000	8.899	0.554	0.000	12.702	0.526	0.000	11.949
2017	0.567	0.000	8.289	0.524	0.000	12.016	0.481	0.000	10.941

解释变量	邻近权重			地理距离权重			经济引力模型权重
解释变量	SAR	SEM	SDM	SAR	SEM	SDM	SAR	SEM	SDM
lnPFI	0.078*** [0.005]	0.077*** [0.012]	0.071*** [0.011]	0.067*** [0.005]	0.063*** [0.011]	0.059*** [0.010]	0.071*** [0.005]	0.067*** [0.011]	0.064*** [0.011]
lnSI	0.041* [0.012]	0.044 [0.028]	0.025** [0.009]	0.042** [0.0160]	0.049** [0.018]	0.044** [0.017]	0.042*** [0.008]	0.048** [0.018]	0.051** [0.018]
lnTI	0.112*** [0.012]	0.115*** [0.022]	0.119*** [0.028]	0.093*** [0.011]	0.095*** [0.025]	0.105*** [0.029]	0.098*** [0.011]	0.095*** [0.025]	0.108*** [0.033]
lnVPT	0.034*** [0.005]	0.029* [0.014]	0.036** [0.011]	0.040*** [0.004]	0.045*** [0.012]	0.043*** [0.012]	0.042*** [0.004]	0.045*** [0.012]	0.045*** [0.012]
lnRS	-0.002 [0.004]	0.002* [0.002]	-0.001 [0.007]	0.001 [0.003]	0.001 [0.008]	0.002 [0.008]	-0.001 [0.003]	-0.001 [0.008]	0.001 [0.009]
lnTC	0.066*** [0.015]	0.075** [0.029]	0.084* [0.035]	0.043 [0.033]	0.057 [0.032]	0.053** [0.014]	0.045 [0.038]	0.0560 [0.033]	0.053** [0.014]
lnLRW	0.005 [0.003]	-0.001 [0.007]	0.004* [0.002]	-0.004 [0.003]	-0.003 [0.007]	-0.004 [0.007]	-0.002 [0.003]	-0.001 [0.007]	-0.003 [0.008]
lnRP	0.040*** [0.005]	0.056*** [0.012]	0.050*** [0.011]	0.045*** [0.005]	0.049*** [0.010]	0.047*** [0.010]	0.045*** [0.005]	0.045*** [0.010]	0.046*** [0.011]
ρ	0.338*** [0.019]	——	0.555*** [0.046]	0.512*** [0.021]	——	0.710*** [0.054]	0.441*** [0.021]	——	0.004*** [0.001]
λ	——	0.624*** [0.049]	——	——	0.815*** [0.049]	——	——	0.771*** [0.047]	——
AIC	-3523.7	-3632.2	-3719.3	-3712.2	-3712.3	-3754.8	-3544.2	-3637.3	-3547.4
BIC	-3471.5	-3580.0	-3541.9	-3660.0	-3660.1	-3577.3	-3492.0	-3585.1	-3369.9
log L	2377.630	2428.158	2496.244	1866.091	1866.131	1911.383	1782.080	1828.656	1828.656

指标	检验方法	统计量	指标	检验方法	统计量	概率
LM检验	LM test no spatial lag	115.239	Wald检验	Wald spatial lag	30.575	6.895e-04
	robust LM test no spatial lag	41.794	Wald检验	Wald spatial error	28.544	0.0015
	LM test no spatial error	86.853	LR检验	LR spatial lag	29.838	9.106e-04
	robust LM test no spatial error	13.408	LR检验	LR spatial error	28.229	0.0017

Spatial spillover effects of export-oriented economic development in the Yangtze River Economic Belt

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解释变量	直接效应		间接效应		总效应
解释变量	弹性系数	标准误差	弹性系数	标准误差	弹性系数	标准误差
lnPFI	0.074***	[0.012]	0.030***	[0.002]	0.105**	[0.039]
lnSI	0.019	[0.036]	0.018*	[0.010]	0.158*	[0.016]
lnTI	0.122***	[0.030]	0.011***	[0.004]	0.133***	[0.011]
lnVPT	0.043***	[0.011]	0.078*	[0.038]	0.130**	[0.043]
lnRS	-0.005	[0.007]	-0.041	[0.032]	-0.046	[0.036]
lnTC	0.083*	[0.036]	-0.034	[0.102]	0.049***	[0.014]
lnLRW	0.001*	[0.002]	0.022*	[0.001]	0.023*	[0.003]
lnRP	0.043***	[0.012]	-0.013***	[0.002]	0.030***	[0.005]

解释变量	上游地区					中游地区			下游地区
解释变量	直接效应		间接效应		总效应	直接效应	间接效应	总效应	直接效应	间接效应	总效应
lnPFI	0.022** [0.013]	-0.025 [0.032]		-0.004 [0.031]		0.065*** [0.013]	-0.020 [0.025]	0.045 [0.031]	0.092*** [0.019]	-0.015 [0.038]	0.077* [0.036]
lnSI	0.039 [0.068]	0.302* [0.129]		0.341* [0.163]		0.070 [0.037]	0.300* [0.120]	0.370** [0.132]	-0.064* [0.017]	-0.120** [0.019]	-0.185 [0.010]
lnTI	0.112* [0.055]	-0.001 [0.108]		0.102 [0.131]		0.097* [0.040]	0.039*** [0.011]	0.135*** [0.033]	0.087* [0.037]	0.060 [0.088]	0.147** [0.026]
lnVPT	0.060*** [0.012]	0.075 [0.045]		0.135** [0.046]		0.025** [0.008]	0.015* [0.003]	0.040* [0.010]	0.065*** [0.017]	0.054*** [0.005]	0.118*** [0.031]
lnRS	0.005** [0.008]	-0.057* [0.025]		-0.053** [0.032]		-0.011 [0.006]	-0.008** [0.001]	-0.019*** [0.005]	-0.011 [0.015]	0.083*** [0.024]	0.070* [0.032]
lnTC	0.031 [0.042]	-0.049 [0.095]		-0.018 [0.107]		0.039 [0.034]	0.016 [0.056]	0.054 [0.073]	0.095*** [0.025]	0.138* [0.056]	0.233*** [0.067]
lnLRW	0.001 [0.015]	-0.082*** [0.025]		-0.082** [0.028]		-0.027** [0.010]	-0.072** [0.025]	-0.099*** [0.030]	0.015 [0.009]	-0.004 [0.045]	0.011* [0.007]
lnRP	0.059*** [0.016]	0.032 [0.054]		0.091*** [0.016]		0.055*** [0.013]	-0.070* [0.035]	-0.016 [0.036]	0.033* [0.013]	-0.007*** [0.004]	0.024*** [0.010]
ρ	0.212** [0.066]					0.217** [0.069]			0.451*** [0.077]

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