Resources Science ›› 2019, Vol. 41 ›› Issue (10): 1824-1836.doi: 10.18402/resci.2019.10.06

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Empirical decomposition and forecast of peak carbon emissions of five major transportation modes:Taking the three provinces in Northeast China as examples

WANG Yong1,2,HAN Shuwan1(),LI Jiayuan3,LI Bo1   

  1. 1. School of Statistics, Dongbei University of Finance and Economics, Dalian 116025, China
    2. Postdoctoral Research Station, Dongbei University of Finance and Economics, Dalian 116025, China
    3. School of Marine Engineering, Dalian Maritime University, Dalian 116026, China
  • Received:2019-04-22 Revised:2019-07-30 Online:2019-10-25 Published:2019-10-25
  • Contact: HAN Shuwan E-mail:shuwanhan@163.com

Abstract:

The transportation industry is one of the key industries necessary for the development of the national economy and the everyday life of residents, and it is also one of the main sources of carbon emissions. High energy consumption and high pollution have always been problems in the transportation industry. The effective control of carbon emissions in the transportation industry is greatly important for achieving China’s carbon emission peak target. This study took the three provinces in Northeast China as the research object and conducted a detailed examination on the carbon emissions of five different modes of transportation: road, railway, air, waterway, and pipeline transportation. First, we used the generalized divisia index method (GDIM) to examine the factors affecting the carbon emissions of the five transportation modes from 2005 to 2016 and Monte Carlo simulation to calculate the carbon emissions of the five major transportation modes in 2017-2030. The annual average rate of change was used for dynamic scenario analysis. The results show that the scale of investment is the primary factor affecting the carbon emissions of railway, road, air, and pipeline transportation. The transportation scale is the primary factor affecting the carbon emissions of waterway transportation. During the same period, the influencing factors are different. In different time periods, the same factors also affect growth or reduction of carbon emissions differently. Except under the baseline scenario, the carbon emissions of the five modes of transportation in 2017-2030 will gradually decline; the carbon emissions of the five types of transportation are expected to decline the most under the technological breakthrough scenario. The development of transportation equipment using clean energy, performance improvement, and vigorous promotion should be the main development path for energy conservation and emission reduction in the future transportation industry.

Key words: transportation industry, carbon peak, empirical decomposition, scenario simulation, Monte Carlo simulation, three provinces in Northeast China