俄罗斯与中日两国能源地缘经济合作关系评价

doi:10.18402/resci.2019.09.08

Abstract

Abstract:

How to evaluate energy geo-economics cooperation relations of exporters and importers have become the important research issues for geography. Russia is one of the most important producers and exporters of crude oil and natural gas in the world, and has been the main source of imports of crude oil and natural gas in china and Japan since 1990s, which resulted in the certain structure of energy geopolitical and energy geo-economics relations among the three countries. This article attempts to build an evaluation model for evaluating energy geo-economics cooperation relations between energy exporter (Russia) and energy importers (China and Japan) in the Russian Far East-Pacific crude oil pipeline construction from 1995 to 2016. The results show that: (1) The scissor difference has been recorded between the rising energy geo-economics cooperation relations index of Russia with China and the declining that of Russia with Japan, and its intersection appeared in 2012. (2) Sino-Russian energy geo-economic cooperation relations have undergone an increasing variation, namely from wave shape variation (1995-2002) and oblique “N” shape variation (2003-2008) to rapidly rise variation (2009-2016), and Sino-Russian energy geo-economic cooperation has entered a stage of rapid development since 2008. (3) During the same period, variation of energy geo-economic cooperation relations between Russia and Japan has showed a downward trend, namely from wave variation and rapidly drop variation to fluctuating decline, and Japan has become one of the energy importers with less volume from Russia. The increasing sustainable progress of energy geo-economic cooperation relations between Russia and China will be recorded in the perspective of the Sino-Russian comprehensive strategic partnership of coordination in the future.

Key words: energy geo-economics, Sino-Russian energy cooperation, Japan-Russian energy cooperation, evaluation on cooperation relations, Russian Far East-Pacific crude oil pipeline

XIONG Chenran,WANG Limao,ZHANG Chao,QU Qiushi,XIANG Ning. Evaluation on energy geo-economics cooperation relations of Russia with China and Japan[J].Resources Science, 2019, 41(9): 1665-1674.

Figures/Tables 9

Table 1

Variables and data sources"

符号及其含义	计算所需的具体指标	数据来源
$I ij$ 为i国和j国地缘经济相互依存指数	俄罗斯与中国、日本的双边贸易额	UN Comtrade
$I ij$ 为i国和j国地缘经济相互依存指数	中国、日本、俄罗斯的进出口贸易总额	世界银行
$T ij$ 为i国和j国地缘能源相互依存指数	能源出口国石油生产量与消费量	国际能源署（IEA）
$T ij$ 为i国和j国地缘能源相互依存指数	能源进口国石油生产量与消费量	国际能源署（IEA）
$α j$ 为进口国能源消费增长指数	历年石油消费总量	国际能源署（IEA）
$β j$ 为进口国能源进口增长指数	历年石油净进口量	国际能源署（IEA）
$γ j$ 为进口国能源消费结构指数	历年石油消费总量和一次能源消费总量	BP能源统计年鉴
$δ j$ 为进口国能源缺口指数	历年石油消费量和生产量	国际能源署（IEA）
$G j$ 为能源进口国GDP增长率	中国和日本GDP年增长率	世界银行
$W j$ 为j国地缘经济领先指数	中国、俄罗斯、日本和韩国4国GDP	世界银行

Table 1

Table 2

Energy geo-economics cooperation relationships evaluation result"

年份	相互依存指数		能源需求结构指数		地缘经济发展指数		$E geo - e C ij$
年份	中俄	日俄	中国	日本	中国	日本	中俄	日俄
1995	0.155	0.813	2.410	1.544	0.212	0.791	0.079	0.992
1996	0.164	0.833	0.827	1.555	0.228	0.754	0.031	0.976
1997	0.305	0.851	1.791	1.488	0.244	0.707	0.133	0.896
1998	0.327	0.867	0.255	1.452	0.259	0.695	0.022	0.875
1999	0.432	0.851	0.916	1.550	0.249	0.717	0.099	0.946
2000	0.489	0.902	1.163	1.506	0.260	0.734	0.148	0.997
2001	0.473	0.974	0.439	1.398	0.290	0.668	0.060	0.910
2002	0.499	0.993	0.758	1.534	0.316	0.630	0.120	0.960
2003	0.551	0.920	1.022	1.497	0.330	0.631	0.186	0.869
2004	0.624	0.848	1.235	1.452	0.342	0.615	0.263	0.757
2005	0.612	0.831	0.577	1.475	0.377	0.563	0.133	0.690
2006	0.659	0.802	0.886	1.364	0.424	0.502	0.247	0.549
2007	0.684	0.797	0.787	1.449	0.481	0.447	0.259	0.516
2008	0.702	0.768	0.758	1.287	0.470	0.399	0.250	0.394
2009	0.722	0.721	0.789	1.300	0.504	0.365	0.287	0.342
2010	0.794	0.712	1.002	1.439	0.529	0.437	0.422	0.448
2011	0.841	0.744	0.835	1.503	0.541	0.361	0.380	0.404
2012	0.883	0.761	0.842	1.513	0.549	0.356	0.408	0.410
2013	0.905	0.741	0.820	1.390	0.601	0.301	0.446	0.310
2014	0.947	0.684	0.866	1.297	0.630	0.261	0.517	0.232
2015	0.969	0.677	0.931	1.387	0.677	0.254	0.611	0.238
2016	1.011	0.644	1.037	1.512	0.661	0.273	0.693	0.266

Table 2

Figure 1

Figure 2

Figure 3

Figure 4

Figure 5

Table 3

Figure 6

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Evaluation on energy geo-economics cooperation relations of Russia with China and Japan

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年份	主要协议内容	金额/亿美元
2005	中石油（CNPC）向俄罗斯国家石油公司（Rosneft）提供贷款	60
2006	中石油（CNPC）注资49%和俄 Rosneft 成立沃斯托克能源有限公司（Vostok Energy LTD）	—
2006	中石化（SINOPEC）收购Rosneft旗下Udmurtneft 49%股权	35
2007	中石化（SINOPEC）收购Rosneft萨哈林-3项目（Sakhalin-3 project）25%股份	—
2009	中国国家开发银行向Rosneft（150亿美元）和Transneft（100亿美元）提供贷款建设中俄原油管道	250
2013	中石油（CNPC）与俄罗斯Rosneft签署25年供油协议,每年向中国供油原油4600万t	2700
2013	中石化（SINOPEC）与俄罗斯Rosneft签署10年供油协议	850
2013	中石油（CNPC）购买诺瓦泰克亚马尔液化天然气项目（Novatek’s Yamal LNG Project）20%股份	54
2014	中石油（CNPC)与俄天然气公司（Gazprom）签署30年天然气合作协议,Gazprom向中国每年供油380亿m³天然气	4000
2015	中国丝路基金购买亚马尔液化天然气工程9.9%股份并向该工程提供7.9亿美元贷款	12
2016	中国进出口银行和中国开发银行向亚马尔液化天然气工程提供15年长期贷款	120