Resources Science ›› 2019, Vol. 41 ›› Issue (9): 1655-1664.doi: 10.18402/resci.2019.09.07

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Energy substitution path optimization under supply and demand mismatch

YAN Liang1,2,XIONG Weiwei1,WANG Xiaolin1,2,WANG Teng2   

  1. 1. School of Economics and Management, China University of Geosciences (Wuhan), Wuhan 430074, China
    2. Research Center of Resource and Environmental Economics, China University of Geosciences (Wuhan), Wuhan 430074, China
  • Received:2018-11-09 Revised:2019-01-27 Online:2019-09-25 Published:2019-09-25

Abstract:

The conflict between the demand of upgrading industrial structure and the condition of energy consumption in China is becoming increasingly more prominent. The imbalance of energy supply and demand structure restricts the support of energy industry for national economic development. It is imperative to form a set of policy tools to guide the formation of supply-side price and capacity replacement mechanism from the bottom. Based on the price substitution mechanism of inter-energy demand and the capacity substitution mechanism within each energy source, this study simulates the trend of energy substitution in China from 2017 to 2050 and takes it as a benchmark scenario. On this basis, the scenarios of price, market, cost, subsidy and carbon trading are set from the supply side. The results show that under the benchmark scenario, coal is the main energy consumption for a long time, and the pressure of structural adjustment and emission reduction is greater. Under the subsidy strategy and carbon trading strategy, the level of clean energy utilization has been significantly improved. Therefore, we must boost the incentive level of natural gas to ensure a smooth transition and reduce the cost of new energy acquisition, improve the reform of energy pricing mechanism, and broaden the scope of carbon trading price change in order to effectively achieve a supply-demand coordinated energy substitution path.

Key words: energy substitution, supply-demand mismatch, putty-clay, system dynamics, energy consumption, scenerio analysis