江西省农业人口转移对耕地利用效率影响的门槛效应

doi:10.18402/resci.2019.08.16

Abstract

Abstract:

The large-scale transfer of agricultural population to cities and secondary and tertiary industries causes other agricultural production factors to change, ultimately affecting the efficiency of cultivated land use. In this study, 11 cities in Jiangxi Province were used as research areas. The super-EBM (Epsilon Based Measure) model was used to measure the utilization efficiency of cultivated land from 2007 to 2016. On this basis, taking the proportion of agricultural transferred population in agricultural population as the threshold variable, the impact of agricultural population transfer on farmland utilization efficiency was analyzed through the panel threshold model. The study indicates that during the inspection period, the agricultural transfer population and the cultivated land use efficiency of the cities in Jiangxi Province showed an upward trend, and the regional differences were significant. In 2016, the impact of agricultural population transfer on the efficiency of cultivated land utilization in most cities of Jiangxi Province showed a threshold effect. Before and after the threshold value (0.428), agricultural population transfer always promoted the efficiency of cultivated land use, but its impact coefficient decreased from 0.5089 to 0.2495. The promotion effect is reduced by 51%. According to whether the degree of agricultural population transfer is across the threshold, the countermeasures for improving the utilization efficiency of cultivated land for different regions are proposed.

Key words: agricultural population transfer, land use efficiency, panel threshold model, super-EBM (Epsilon Based Measure) model, Jiangxi Province

Xiuqing ZOU,Ying WANG,Tingyan WU,Yulin YIN,Xiaosong TU,Guoliang XU. Threshold effect of agricultural population transfer on cultivated land use efficiency in Jiangxi Province[J].Resources Science, 2019, 41(8): 1576-1588.

Figures/Tables 9

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指标	变量	指标名称	说明
投入指标	X₁	农业从业人员/万人	反映劳动力投入情况
	X₂	粮食作物播种面积/hm²	反映耕地利用情况
	X₃	农业机械总动力/万kW	反映农用机械投入情况
	X₄	农用化肥施用量（折纯量）/万t	反映资本投入
	X₄			X₅	塑料薄膜使用量/t	反映资本投入
	产出指标		Y	粮食产量/万t	反映产出情况

变量分类	变量名称	最大值	最小值	方差	均值	计算方法
被解释变量	耕地利用效率（LUE）	1.23	0.79	0.09	0.99	—
解释变量	农业转移人口占比（RATE）	0.60	0.19	0.11	0.36	—
控制变量	农村居民人均可支配收入（INC）/万元	1.53	0.28	0.32	0.80	自然对数
	有效灌溉面积（IRR）/万hm²	31.10	2.32	10.20	17.45	自然对数
	农用化肥施用量（FER）/万t	241122.00	23874.00	74907.69	126476.24	自然对数
	农业机械总动力（ATP）/万kW	705.31	49.53	167.70	270.71	自然对数

	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016
南昌	65.69	63.01	66.55	72.42	78.80	91.16	91.44	96.38	83.79	86.59
景德镇	29.44	31.18	32.33	33.69	33.68	33.88	33.85	33.73	34.10	35.24
萍乡	68.69	68.40	69.04	70.41	71.12	69.56	70.02	70.41	70.11	71.79
九江	96.79	96.38	96.65	97.59	97.35	97.48	99.97	102.31	102.44	103.05
新余	13.53	13.55	14.63	16.05	15.55	15.15	16.83	17.78	18.46	18.75
鹰潭	18.21	18.70	18.87	20.93	23.42	23.92	24.75	27.06	28.31	28.45
赣州	168.21	171.50	175.33	181.26	190.99	203.86	211.12	233.13	247.85	258.15
吉安	77.81	79.75	88.80	92.58	97.37	100.50	103.71	105.85	107.62	109.95
宜春	97.45	97.50	97.68	100.64	105.32	110.13	113.94	121.23	116.97	117.20
抚州	57.39	60.14	62.54	65.32	74.40	90.68	103.29	114.50	117.81	119.52
上饶	154.75	162.98	173.68	183.99	186.54	196.46	190.83	197.80	195.07	200.54
总计	847.96	863.09	896.10	934.88	974.54	1032.78	1059.75	1120.18	1122.53	1149.23

	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016
南昌	0.9015	0.9118	0.9736	1.0358	1.0469	1.0133	1.0016	1.0074	1.0039	1.0071
景德镇	0.8560	0.9212	0.8988	0.9234	0.9149	0.9042	0.8969	0.9231	0.9385	0.9446
萍乡	0.9509	0.9653	1.0010	1.0147	1.0225	1.0069	1.0192	1.0098	1.0313	1.0389
九江	0.8085	0.8061	0.8072	0.8041	0.8140	0.8950	0.8875	0.8685	0.8704	0.8988
新余	0.9176	0.8886	0.8967	0.9047	0.9053	0.8816	0.9303	1.0075	1.0035	1.0466
鹰潭	0.8222	0.8483	0.9659	1.0871	1.1092	1.0327	1.0007	1.0397	1.0830	1.0537
赣州	0.9552	0.9202	0.9391	0.9250	0.9177	0.9400	1.0008	1.0061	1.0345	1.0451
吉安	1.0037	1.0209	1.0332	1.0483	1.0338	1.0229	1.0615	1.1329	1.1181	1.1150
宜春	1.0090	1.0111	1.0089	1.0287	1.0077	1.0124	1.0537	1.0264	1.0278	1.0629
抚州	1.0564	1.0832	1.1302	1.1640	1.2059	1.2289	1.1559	1.1380	1.1580	1.1679
上饶	0.8856	0.9925	1.0122	1.0283	1.0402	0.9842	0.9947	0.9947	1.0104	1.0374

模型	F值	P值	BS次数	临界值
模型	F值	P值	BS次数	1%	5%	10%
单门槛	16.519***	0.003	500	12.832	7.602	5.458
双门槛	-11.972	0.326	500	0.258	-4.080	-5.764

Threshold effect of agricultural population transfer on cultivated land use efficiency in Jiangxi Province

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变量	系数	标准误	T统计量	P值
RATE_itI(RATE_it≤0.428)	0.5089***	0.1475	3.45	0.001
RATE_itI(RATE_it>0.428)	0.2495**	0.1070	2.33	0.022
INC_it	0.0609**	0.0253	2.41	0.018
IRR_it	0.0208*	0.1012	1.92	0.083
FER_it	0.1978*	0.1038	1.91	0.060
ATP_it	-0.0135*	0.0242	-1.95	0.079

农业人口转移对耕地利用效率影响程度	2007年	2016年
影响较大区（RATE≤0.428）	南昌（0.254）、景德镇（0.399）、九江（0.351）、新余（0.261）、鹰潭（0.300）、赣州（0.242）、吉安（0.209）、宜春（0.244）、抚州（0.193）、上饶（0.269）	南昌（0.371）、赣州（0.360）、宜春（0.275）、上饶（0.325）
影响较小区（RATE>0.428）	萍乡（0.546）	景德镇（0.605）、萍乡（0.560）、九江（0.445）、新余（0.513）、鹰潭（0.577）、吉安（0.455）、抚州（0.434）

变量	固定效应模型				单门槛模型
变量	系数	标准误	T统计量	P值	系数	标准误	T统计量	P值
RATE_it	0.2929**	0.1158	2.53	0.0133	-	-	-	-
RATE_itI(RATE_it≤0.428)	-	-	-	-	0.5089***	0.1475	3.45	0.001
RATE_itI(RATE_it>0.428)	-	-	-	-	0.2495**	0.1070	2.33	0.022
INC_it	0.0100*	0.0614	2.31	0.0706	0.0609**	0.0253	2.41	0.018
IRR_it	0.1373*	0.1091	1.93	0.0919	0.0208*	0.1012	1.92	0.083
FER_it	0.0065*	0.1033	2.05	0.0535	0.1978*	0.1038	1.91	0.060
ATP_it	-0.1988***	0.0575	-3.456	0.0009	-0.0135*	0.0242	-1.95	0.079

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