环渤海地区滴灌的资源与经济效应——政府与农户目标一致性检验

doi:10.18402/resci.2019.08.02

Abstract

Abstract:

Water resources are an important factor that affects rural social and economic development and farmers’ income. This study starts from the goal of coordinating the government and farmers on efficiency and income,based on the survey data of 357 vegetable growers of the main vegetable production area in the Bohai Rim in 2017, applied the simultaneous equations model (SEM), conditional mixture process (CMP), propensity score matching (PSM), and instrumental variable quantile regression (IVQR) to investigate the efficiency and income increase ability of drip irrigation technology and the constraints of promotion effect at the micro level, to explore the path to promote sustainable development of China’s agriculture. The results show that: (1) In the main production areas facing severe water scarcity, households with fewer years of planting, abundant capital, and higher level of knowledge on water saving tend to adopt drip irrigation technology; (2) Drip irrigation technology has significant effects on increasing production efficiency and income. The output of unit irrigation water and income on average increase by 17.16 kg/t of vegetables and 45.90 yuan/t for farmers who adopt the drip irrigation technology, which provides long-term incentives for its broader adoption; (3) The output and economic effects of drip irrigation technology have a “Matthew effect,” which means that farmers with better production conditions benefit more from the technology; (4) Imperfect design of irrigation system, poor design and quality of equipment engineering, inadequate training and after-sales service, lack of professional knowledge and technology of farmers, weak ability to practice modern agriculture, and poorly designed subsidies of the government are important factors affecting the enthusiasm of farmers to adopt drip irrigation technology. Furthermore, proper increase of irrigation water price will help speed up the popularization of field water-saving technology.

Key words: vegetable, main production area, drip irrigation, resource effect, economic effect, CMP, IVQR, the Bohai Rim area

Zhexi ZHANG,Yueying MU,Lingling HOU,Xin YANG. Resource and economic effects of drip irrigation in the Bohai Rim area: Consistency of goals of the government and farmers[J].Resources Science, 2019, 41(8): 1400-1415.

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References 63

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项目	单位	北京市	河北省	辽宁省
常住人口	万人	2173	7470	4378
耕地面积	万hm²	21.63	652.05	497.45
GDP	万亿元	2.49	3.18	2.22
第一产业增加值	亿元	129.6	3492.8	2173.1
地下水资源量	亿m³	21.1	120.9	133.7
人均水资源量	m³/人	161.6	757.1	279.7
样本数	户	115	81	161

变量类型	变量名称	参数表示	单位	滴灌组	非滴灌组
灌溉水投入产出情况	灌溉水量	Water	t	708.30	924.00
	灌溉水生产率	WP	kg/t	45.00	27.20
	灌溉水净利润	r	元/t	94.89	39.53
生产投入	种苗投入	Seed	元/t	9.90	4.24
	农膜投入	Nm	元/t	6.71	3.85
	农药投入	Pes	元/t	8.05	2.51
	肥料投入	Tfer	元/t	16.84	9.90
	化肥投入	Fer	元	2064.08	2388.28
	有机肥投入	Ofer	元	1575.15	1552.14
户主及农户家庭条件	性别	Gen	0=女;1=男	0.93	0.92
	年龄	Age	岁	51.25	52.20
	蔬菜种植年限	Vyear	年	16.28	18.54
	受教育年限	Edu	年	8.57	8.58
	风险态度	Ati	—	2.01	1.92
	滴灌技术了解程度	Know	—	4.46	4.14
	水资源信息技术来源	Chan	—	1.14	1.11
	交流频率	Comm	—	3.45	3.53
	家庭劳动力数	Lab	人	2.02	2.00
	家庭年收入	Tinc	万元	7.48	6.05
	温室大棚数	Num	个	2.58	2.84
	专业化生产	Spe	%	85.14	85.25
自然、市场	水稀缺度	Rare	—	2.72	2.42
与社会环境	灌溉水价	Wprice	元/度	0.65	0.67
	蔬菜价格	P	元/kg	0.83	0.67
	受政府补贴农户比例	Sub	%	3.61	6.80
	产业集聚程度	Agg	%	41.60	37.71

方程名称	变量名称	CMP方法		OLS方法
方程名称	变量名称	回归系数	标准误	回归系数	标准误
农户滴灌技术采用方程（1）	Rare	0.095*	0.049	0.097**	0.049
	Gen	0.157	0.256	0.146	0.257
	Age	0.002	0.009	0.002	0.009
	Vyear	-0.015*	0.009	-0.015*	0.009
	Edu	-0.006	0.032	-0.007	0.032
	Ati	0.071	0.091	0.055	0.096
	Know	0.209***	0.068	0.198***	0.071
	Chan	0.011	0.162	0.024	0.170
	Lab	-0.011	0.107	0.001	0.112
	Tinc	3.68E-06**	1.65E-06	4.21E-06**	1.68E-06
	Num	-0.063*	0.037	-0.072*	0.038
	Sub	-0.442	0.315	-0.333	0.323
	Agg	0.004	0.003	0.004	0.003
	_cons	-1.463**	0.741	-1.502**	0.745
灌溉水生产率方程（2）	Drip	17.158*	9.701	16.188***	5.335
	Rare	1.685	2.058	2.962	1.879
	Gen	11.339	10.011	11.790	9.920
	Age	-0.287	0.335	-0.323	0.328
	Vyear	0.036	0.419	-0.092	0.324
	Edu	1.444	1.221	1.184	1.203
	Comm	5.142**	2.142	5.261***	2.044
	Fer	-0.002*	0.001	-0.002*	0.001
	Ofer	0.0002	0.002	0.0005	0.002
	Spe	27.218**	12.890	21.548*	13.002
	_cons	-12.053	25.602	-15.859	25.698
灌溉水净收益方程（3）	WP	2.675***	0.346	2.466***	0.083
	P	73.834***	6.440	74.411***	6.479
	Wprice	-30.690***	9.000	-30.494***	9.104
	Seed	1.671***	0.272	1.691***	0.274
	Tfer	-0.103	0.249	-0.132	0.246
	Nm	-3.915***	0.708	-3.892***	0.715
	Pes	-0.019	0.105	-0.024	0.106
	_cons	-54.048***	14.930	-47.049***	8.778
独立性检验	/atanhrho_12	-0.167	0.212
	/atanhrho_13	0.011	0.096
	/atanhrho_23	-0.188	0.275

变量名称	处理类型	滴灌组	非滴灌组	差值	标准误
灌溉水生产率	Unmatched	45.002	27.205	17.797***	5.336
灌溉水生产率	ATT	45.580	25.734	19.846***	6.129
灌溉水净收益	Unmatched	94.890	39.532	55.358***	14.363
灌溉水净收益	ATT	97.420	38.292	59.128***	16.412

变量名称	25%分位点		50%分位点		75%分位点
变量名称	系数	标准误	系数	标准误	系数	标准误
灌溉水生产率	12.373**	6.216	16.384**	6.492	66.522***	24.870
灌溉水净收益	22.270***	1.084	33.541***	1.777***	182.578***	5.876

Resource and economic effects of drip irrigation in the Bohai Rim area: Consistency of goals of the government and farmers

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