Resources Science ›› 2019, Vol. 41 ›› Issue (6): 1141-1153.doi: 10.18402/resci.2019.06.13

• Orginal Article • Previous Articles     Next Articles

Evaluation of air temperature of the typical river basin in desert area of Northwest China by the CMIP5 models:A case of the Kaidu-Kongqi River Basin

Xiaofei LI1,2(), Changchun XU1,2(), Lu LI1,2, Yingxue LUO1,2, Qiuping YANG1,2, Yuanyuan YANG1,2   

  1. 1. College of Resource and Environmental Science, Xinjiang University, Urumqi 830046, China
    2. Key Laboratory of Oasis Ecology of Ministry of Education, Xinjiang University, Urumqi 830046, China
  • Received:2018-11-16 Revised:2018-12-10 Online:2019-06-25 Published:2019-06-25

Abstract:

Global warming will result in serve water shortage, aggravating the existing outstanding water problem in the Kaidu-Kongqi River Basin. Studies on the future climate change will contribute to the rational distribution and utilization of water in the basin. Based on the CRU(Climate Research Unit) dataset and 32 BCSD-downscaled CMIP5 model air temperature dataset from DCHP (Downscaled CMIP3 and CMIP5 Climate and Hydrology Projections), the paper assessed the simulation ability of both 32 models and multi-model ensemble mean through the test of long-term trend and abrupt change of annual average, maximum and minimum air temperature in the Kaidu-Kongqi River Basin over the period of 1950-2005 by using the methods of linear trend calculation, moving average, Mann-Kendall (M-K) test and moving T-test (MMT). Results show that (1) 12 of 32 models are capable of reproducing the significant warming trend of three temperature indicators during 1950-2005, 8 of 32 models can only simulate that of some temperature indicators, but all of them underestimate the warming rate, so does the multi-model ensemble mean. (2) Most models failed to simulate the time of abrupt change accurately except two, FIO-ESM and MPI-ESM-MR. The ensemble mean of preferred models, PM-PLS and PM-EE, are superior to the individual model in simulating abrupt change. Between them, PM-PLS is better. (3) The further evaluation indicates that the multi-model ensemble PM-PLS can better capture the linear trend of spatio-temporal characteristics, but the problem of underestimating the warming rate still exists. It appeals to strengthen the study of model optimum selection and multiple models assemble in the future climate prediction using climate models.

Key words: air temperature, Taylor diagram, multi-model ensemble mean, Mann-Kendall, abrupt change, Kaidu-Kongqi River Basin