Resources Science ›› 2019, Vol. 41 ›› Issue (6): 1082-1092.doi: 10.18402/resci.2019.06.07

• Orginal Article • Previous Articles     Next Articles

Worst case scenario-based methodology for simulating land-use change in coastal city in China: A case study of Lianyungang

Xiaoyan YANG1(), Yu LING3, Long LI2, Longgao CHEN1(), Longqian CHEN2   

  1. 1. School of Geography, Geomatics and Planning, Jiangsu Normal University, Xuzhou 221116, China
    2. School of Environment and Spatial Informatics, China University of Mining and Technology, Xuzhou 221116, China
    3. Land Consolidation Center in Jiangsu Province, Nanjing 210024, China
  • Received:2018-10-17 Revised:2019-02-27 Online:2019-06-25 Published:2019-06-25

Abstract:

Simulating and predicting future land-use pattern is of great importance for supporting land-use eco-environmental impact assessment and optimizing land-use planning schemes. Using artificial neural network (ANN) and cellular automata (CA) based future land use simulation (FLUS) model, we proposed a land-use change simulation methodology and applied it for predicting the land-use pattern in a coastal city of China, Lianyungang, in 2020 using the worst case scenario-based (WSB) constraint and non-worst case scenario-based (NWSB) models. The results indicate that: (1) The “worst case” areas are mainly identified in the central-eastern part of the city with a national nature reserve, high elevation and steep slope, natural forests, and water bodies such as rivers, lakes, and reservoirs, and the area is 489.67 km2; (2) With or without the constraint of prohibiting factors or “worst case”, urban land would both expand to a large extent; and with the WSB constraint urban expansion would avoid the “worst case” areas; (3) More arable land would convert into rural residential land in the simulation based on NWSB than with WSB constraint, indicating that the land use simulation with WSB constraint can decrease the occupation of arable land when additional rural residential land is needed; However, (4) the overall area of arable land converting to urban land is lager in the simulation based on the WSB constraint due to the restriction of land use conversion in the “worst case” areas, which challenges the arable land protection strategy in the city. The simulation and prediction of future land-use pattern based on the “worst case” constraint can support eco-environmental protection and regional sustainable development as well as local land-use planning and management. It may also provide a reference for land-use change simulation in other areas.

Key words: worst case constraint, ecological tolerance index, land-use change, simulation, Lianyungang City