陕西省耕地转移对生态系统服务价值的影响

doi:10.18402/resci.2019.06.06

Abstract

Abstract:

This study developed a panel threshold model to examine the impact of cultivated land transition due to urban expansion and ecological restoration project on ecosystem service value, according to the economic analysis framework based on land use/land cover change derived from remote sensing data of 1990-2015 in Shaanxi Province. Cultivated land transition has moved in two opposite directions driven by urban expansion and ecological restoration policy. Urban expansion affects negatively and significantly on ecosystem service value, but its marginal effect is a function of the rate of forest and grassland coverage. With the implementation of the Grain for Green project, forest and grassland coverage increase can make up for the loss of the ecosystem service value caused by urban expansion. The rate of forest and grassland coverage is captured by the panel threshold model, which indicates that when this rate reaches 87.3%, urban expansion has no significant impact on the ecosystem service value. In 2017, the rate of forest and grassland coverage in Shaanxi Province was 68.83%. Therefore it is essential for the province to further expand the scale of returning farmland to forest (grass) to ensure regional ecological security and meet the needs of ecological civilization construction while ensuring that the basic farmlands remain unchanged.

Key words: cultivated land transition, ecosystem service value, Grain for Green project, urban expansion, panel threshold model, Shaanxi Province

Zhenmin DING, Shunbo YAO. Effects of cultivated land transition on ecosystem service value in Shaanxi Province of China[J].Resources Science, 2019, 41(6): 1070-1081.

Figures/Tables 9

Figure 1

Table 1

Table 2

Figure 2

Table 3

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Table 6

Figure 3

References 31

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变量代码	变量名称	计算方式	单位	均值	标准差	最小值	最大值
mesv	单位面积生态系统服务价值	县域生态系统服务价值/县域总面积	元/hm²	9840.700	3124.693	0.000	15273.050
urban	城镇扩张水平	县域城镇用地面积/（县域城乡建设用地面积+县域耕地面积）	—	0.046	0.172	0.000	1.000
pfgc	林草覆盖率	（县域林地面积+县域草地面积）/县域总面积	—	0.500	0.266	0.000	0.952
slope	坡度	均值提取于DEM（90 m）栅格数据	°	3.513	2.481	0.174	10.165
aspect	坡向	均值提取于DEM（90 m）栅格数据,并经过计算得到	°	-7.518	6.069	-23.155	-0.068
temp	气温	均值提取于气温（1 km）格数据	℃	11.944	1.938	7.240	15.490
rain	降水量	均值提取于降水（1 km）格数据	mm	683.159	213.128	287.124	1401.146
water	水域比例	县域水域面积/县域面积	—	0.011	0.013	0.000	0.076

1990	2000
1990	耕地	森林	草地	水域	城乡建设用地	未利用地	转出总计
耕地	0.000	2.442	4.798	3.964	-1.306	-0.111	9.788
森林	-1.767	0.000	-0.734	0.215	-0.313	-0.053	-2.653
草地	-9.706	0.999	0.000	2.304	-0.152	-1.160	-7.715
水域	-6.830	-0.187	-3.375	0.000	-0.058	-0.351	-10.802
城乡建设用地	0.084	0.015	0.036	0.029	0.000	0.000	0.164
未利用地	0.108	1.079	16.892	0.883	-0.002	0.000	18.960
转入总计	-18.111	4.349	17.617（0.725）	7.394	-1.831	-1.676	7.742*（-9. 15）

2000	2015
2000	耕地	森林	草地	水域	城乡建设用地	未利用地	转出总计
耕地	0.000	16.906	38.546	18.125	-5.348	-0.132	68.097
森林	-4.393	0.000	-0.718	1.300	-1.430	-0.799	-6.040
草地	-21.049	2.598	0.000	7.732	-5.502	-2.041	-18.263
水域	-13.632	-0.777	-6.927	0.000	-2.193	-0.324	-23.852
城乡建设用地	0.397	0.369	0.212	0.895	0.000	0.000	1.873
未利用地	0.452	0.199	2.606	2.106	-0.083	0.000	5.281
转入总计	-38.224	19.296	33.719（31.113）	30.158	-14.556	-3.297	27.096*（24.490）

门槛类型	F值	P值	BS次数	门槛值	置信区间
单一门槛(pfgc1)	669.292***	0.007	300	0.013	[0.013,0.014]
双重门槛(pfgc1)	1.459**	0.013	300	0.837	[0.837,0.837]
(pfgc2)				0.013	[0.013,0.014]
三重门槛(pfgc3)	0	0.28	300	0.041	[0.025,0.053]

lnmesv	模型（1）直接效应		模型（2）调节效应		模型（3）门槛效应
lnmesv	系数	标准误差	系数	标准误差	系数	标准误差
urban	-0.976***	0.197	-1.588***	0.312
urban_1 (pfgc<0.013)					-2.782***	0.166
urban_2 (0.013<=pfgc<0.837)					-0.617***	0.142
urban_3 (pfgc>=0.837)					2.504	2.866
pfgc	1.472***	0.211	1.479***	0.428
pu			11.600***	2.502
lntemp	-0.127	0.085	-0.459*	0.272	-0.679***	0.095
lnrain	0.063	0.054	0.069	0.070	-0.078	0.049
slop	0.223***	0.031	0.180***	0.058	0.089***	0.009
aspect	0.124***	0.036	0.067	0.077	0.011***	0.003
water	15.804***	1.561	15.478***	4.717	12.664***	1.244
控制个体	YES		YES		—
_cons	6.812***	0.519	8.560***	1.486	12.696***	0.513
R²	0.9616		0.9641		—

Effects of cultivated land transition on ecosystem service value in Shaanxi Province of China

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