Resources Science ›› 2019, Vol. 41 ›› Issue (6): 1059-1069.doi: 10.18402/resci.2019.06.05

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Impact of short-term government intervention on the periodic fluctuation of residential land price

Yaoyao LI1(), Daolin ZHU1,2(), Jiangmeng ZHAO1, Ting DU1   

  1. 1. College of Land Science and Technology, China Agricultural University, Beijing 100193, China
    2. Center for Land Policy and Law, Beijing 100193, China
  • Received:2018-12-07 Revised:2019-01-07 Online:2019-06-25 Published:2019-06-25

Abstract:

In order to explore the effect of short-term government intervention on the periodic fluctuation of land price, this study put forward that the government takes on dual roles when it makes policy to adjust and control the land market. Meanwhile, change of the macroeconomic environment and behavior of the “economic man” would lead to the short-term volatility of policy, thus aggravating information asymmetry, affecting the expectation of market subjects and increasing land price fluctuations. Based on the empirical estimates and using k-means clustering method, 31 cities in China were divided into four categories according to the characteristics of fluctuation of residential land price. The study selected Beijing and Shanghai, among the 31 cities, for regression analysis between the periodic fluctuation of residential land price and short-term policy intervention. The study found that although the fluctuation of residential land price in all cities showed an asymmetric structure of “sharp rise and slow fall”, the impact of government short-term intervention behavior on the fluctuation of residential land price had obvious differences among these cities. The fluctuation of residential land price in Beijing was not significantly affected by the short-term intervention of the government, while there was a significant positive correlation between the short-term intervention by means of macroeconomic policies of the government and the fluctuation of residential land price in Shanghai. In addition, different policies showed different impact intensities. The change of fiscal policies had the greatest effect on the fluctuation of residential land price, followed by monetary policy and land policy.

Key words: short-term government intervention, land price, periodic fluctuation, land policy, fiscal policy, monetary policy