“一带一路”国家入境游客规模演化规律与中国出境游客的对应特征

doi:10.18402/resci.2019.05.10

Abstract

Abstract:

The “Belt and Road” initiative ushered in a new opportunity for the development of China’s tourism industry internationally. A comparison of the spatial pattern of change between outbound tourism from China and inbound tourism from the destination countries in the “Belt and Road” countries can provide some guidance on the overall arrangement to broaden the space for the development of China’s outbound tourism market. In this study, using multiple spatial analysis methods such as coefficient of variation, average annual growth rate, spatial hot spot, trajectory of gravity center change, and standard deviation ellipse, the spatial pattern and change of outbound tourism from China and inbound tourism from the corresponding destination countries from 2001 to 2015 were identified. Three main results were obtained. (1) Cambodia and Vietnam received rapidly growing Chinese outbound tourists, while Thailand is an important destination favored by both Chinese and foreign tourists. (2) China’s outbound tourism is still dominated by tropical and subtropical island countries around Asia; distant tourism markets in other countries have always been cold spots; the Southeast Asian tourism market is a joint hot spot for both China’s outbound tourism and global tourism destinations, such as Thailand and Malaysia. (3) Spatial distribution of Chinese outbound tourists gradually developed from south-north to northwest-southeast; the spatial distribution of inbound tourists from corresponding destination countries remained in northwest-southeast direction, and the spatial variation of Chinese outbound tourists was much larger than that of inbound tourists from destinations. While maintaining the scale advantage of the Southeast Asia tourism market, China’s outbound tourism can pay attention to other mature tourism markets such as Eastern Europe and the Middle East in the context of the “Belt and Road” initiative.

Key words: outbound tourism, inbound tourism, hot spot analysis, trajectory of gravity center, “Belt and Road”

Xiaojin WEN, Yiyi JIANG, Yanxu LIU. Inbound tourism from destination countries in the “Belt and Road” region and corresponding outbound tourism from China during 2001 to 2015[J].Resources Science, 2019, 41(5): 931-942.

Figures/Tables 4

Figure 1

Table 1

Outbound tourism from China, inbound tourism from destination countries, and ratio of outbound/inbound at 2001 and 2015, the coefficient of variation and average increasing rate from 2001 to 2015"

地区	国家		出境/万人次				入境/万人次		出入境比/%				2001—2015年CV/%				2001—2015年平均增长率/%
地区	国家		2001		2015		2001	2015	2001		2015		出境		入境		出境		入境
东亚与俄罗斯	蒙古		5.74		18.95		16.59	38.60	34.60		49.09		28.89		27.84		10.74		7.11
东亚与俄罗斯	俄罗斯		40.92		100.72		1 945.68	3 110.60	2.10		3.24		22.05		16.82		8.01		3.57
东南亚及巴布亚新几内亚	泰国		69.49		482.81		1 040.66	988.11	6.68		16.61		84.14		38.72		17.91		8.28
	缅甸		1.68		32.61		47.50	410.34	3.54		7.95		102.56		87.43		31.13		18.85
	马来西亚		45.32		216.63		1 277.51	2 573.63	3.55		8.42		58.45		27.09		15.32		5.91
	越南		46.17		173.44		209.70	714.93	22.02		24.26		57.46		42.00		12.82		9.74
	菲律宾		1.89		50.47		196.81	462.55	1.11		9.78		78.74		33.97		31.40		8.46
	新加坡		49.74		251.56		968.73	1 708.51	5.13		14.22		49.90		24.19		13.91		4.87
	印度尼西亚		3.22		98.85		515.36	1 040.70	0.62		9.50		83.61		27.42		30.08		5.46
	老挝		1.03		19.54		17.30	418.72	5.95		4.67		81.40		78.47		29.88		28.01
	柬埔寨		3.20		56.14		40.84	477.51	7.84		11.76		88.75		60.87		25.08		19.79
	巴布亚新几内亚		0.10		1.02		5.42	23.68	1.85		4.31		67.01		47.46		20.20		11.43
南亚	印度		1.39		22.23		253.73	801.77	0.55		2.77		66.68		34.16		22.91		8.77
	巴基斯坦		0.57		4.94		49.97	126.23	1.14		3.91		44.68		28.46		19.92		9.91
	孟加拉国		0.69		1.27		20.72	16.93	3.33		7.50		42.18		37.41		14.30		3.42
	阿富汗		0.98		3.14		22.75	31.66	4.31		9.92		49.13		20.48		10.07		2.77
	马尔代夫		0.73		39.93		46.10	120.49	1.58		32.35		110.02		34.24		39.38		8.89
	斯里兰卡		0.37		7.44		33.68	179.89	1.10		4.14		103.11		56.4		29.24		13.84
	不丹		0.00		0.57		0.64	7.04	0.00		8.10		110.68		69.29		38.00		20.09
	尼泊尔		0.86		13.28		36.12	53.90	2.38		24.64		88.18		31.63		27.69		4.09
中亚	哈萨克斯坦		2.73		14.34		184.47	541.87	1.48		2.65		42.00		29.14		14.23		9.00
	吉尔吉斯斯坦		0.52		9.86		9.86	305.04	5.27		1.00		41.06		73.53		15.03		41.37
	塔吉克斯坦		0.01		0.13		0.80	41.40	1.25		0.31		88.87		51.42		36.11		71.24
	土库曼斯坦		0.24		2.85		9.90	62.61	2.42		4.55		60.11		59.96		19.87		14.34
	乌兹别克斯坦		0.09		1.56		34.49	258.96	0.26		0.60		87.13		71.14		26.53		20.23
西亚和埃及	阿联酋		2.16		9.47		522.41	1 984.28	0.41		0.48		37.99		36.59		11.59		10.19
	沙特阿拉伯		0.95		1.38		672.66	1 807.11	0.14		0.08		52.79		33.68		12.57		8.51
	阿曼		0.17		1.31		64.73	231.71	0.26		0.57		43.35		38.06		22.08		10.67
	伊朗		0.37		4.06		140.19	538.48	0.26		0.75		96.18		45.17		25.93		11.22
	以色列		0.63		2.81		119.57	281.11	0.53		1.00		71.61		31.31		21.77		7.26
	土耳其		2.44		15.95		1 078.27	3 467.43	0.23		0.46		57.18		33.09		15.13		9.02
	也门		0.03		0.36		7.56	25.91	0.40		1.39		55.87		39.53		35.35		13.25
	伊拉克		0.00		0.00		12.67	93.29	0.00		0.00		230.52		73.08		35.37		0.00
	叙利亚		0.07		0.39		165.99	284.37	0.04		0.14		63.03		40.2		37.47		6.36
	约旦		0.32		2.03		130.40	251.08	0.25		0.81		51.00		20.92		17.69		5.33
	科威特		0.02		0.16		13.14	35.81	0.15		0.45		56.57		43.39		22.17		11.13
	黎巴嫩		0.16		0.45		83.71	151.80	0.19		0.30		49.88		26.43		11.17		5.84
	卡塔尔		0.20		2.29		37.60	293.00	0.53		0.78		65.25		57.21		20.03		16.38
	阿塞拜疆		0.04		0.65		52.59	220.78	0.08		0.29		61.84		48.58		30.10		12.60
	格鲁吉亚		0.06		1.09		24.74	228.16	0.24		0.48		95.36		71.84		33.32		18.60
	亚美尼亚		0.02		1.23		12.29	119.20	0.16		1.03		70.65		59.95		45.57		18.07
	巴林		0.42		0.14		278.90	700.38	0.15		0.02		79.11		29.92		9.98		8.46
	埃及		1.30		6.72		464.85	937.61	0.28		0.72		46.64		28.42		17.39		6.59
地区		国家		出境/万人次				入境/万人次				出入境比/%				2001—2015年CV/%				2001—2015年平均增长率/%
地区		国家		2001		2015		2001		2015		2001		2015		出境		入境		出境	入境
中东欧		爱沙尼亚		0.04		1.38		132.00		276.30		0.03		0.50		98.55		24.77		32.13	5.63
		拉托维亚		0.05		1.04		59.10		202.40		0.08		0.51		102.14		27.9		31.80	10.16
		白俄罗斯		0.01		0.08		176.11		323.08		0.01		0.02		40.17		19.04		34.95	4.66
		保加利亚		0.31		1.40		318.59		756.27		0.10		0.19		50.83		22.97		11.93	6.47
		波兰		2.14		13.78		1 500.00		1 672.83		0.14		0.82		54.66		9.20		16.94	1.01
		波黑		0.01		0.66		13.85		67.83		0.07		0.97		124.20		46.12		49.15	12.29
		克罗地亚		0.17		4.91		654.40		1265.79		0.03		0.39		104.29		18.94		30.03	4.87
		阿尔巴尼亚		0.03		0.51		34.29		415.96		0.09		0.12		77.02		69.08		28.25	19.94
		斯洛伐克		0.22		6.84		497.44		636.37		0.04		1.07		85.05		10.29		31.95	2.20
		斯洛文尼亚		0.04		2.40		121.87		249.42		0.03		0.96		100.29		21.18		36.62	5.34
		乌克兰		0.43		1.19		917.42		1176.89		0.05		0.10		31.57		29.3		10.76	3.88
		黑山		0.07		1.33		10.67		155.99		0.66		0.85		99.36		60.27		108.52	26.61
		捷克		1.76		27.00		813.79		1 114.80		0.22		2.42		82.84		10.34		22.81	2.45
		希腊		0.08		3.98		1 405.73		359.90		0.01		0.17		113.72		17.42		41.46	4.09
		马其顿		0.03		0.49		9.89		48.55		0.30		1.01		106.39		41.81		24.45	12.38
		摩尔多瓦		0.02		0.05		56.49		77.08		0.04		0.06		44.00		11.56		16.02	2.67
		立陶宛		0.11		1.10		90.86		211.04		0.12		0.52		69.99		24.13		27.12	6.60
		罗马尼亚		0.81		2.75		313.40		678.66		0.26		0.41		41.85		21.56		11.10	6.22
		匈牙利		5.00		19.39		1 147.00		1 431.60		0.44		1.35		46.84		14.02		11.39	2.00
		塞尔维亚		0.15		0.74		30.99		113.22		0.48		0.65		77.93		39.2		14.98	10.3
		塞浦路斯		0.04		0.13		269.67		265.9		0.01		0.05		46.16		5.89		14.90	0.07

Table 1

Table 2

Figure 2

References 38

[1]	蒋依依, 刘祥艳, 宋慧林. 出境旅游需求的影响因素: 兼论发展中经济体与发达经济体的异同[J]. 旅游学刊, 2017, 32(1): 12-21.
	[Jiang Y Y, Liu X Y, Song H L.Influencing factors of outbound tourism and their different functions in developing and developed economies[J]. Tourism Tribune, 2017, 32(1): 12-21.]
[2]	Dai B, Jiang Y Y, Yang L Q, et al.China’s outbound tourism: Stages, policies and choices[J]. Tourism Management, 2017, 58: 253-258.
[3]	陆大道. 当代中国的全球观念与全球战略[J]. 地理科学, 2016, 36(4): 483-490.
	[Lu D D.The global concept and strategy of contemporary China: Analysis on the geopolitical and geoeconomic environment of the ‘Belt and Road Initiative’[J]. Scientia Geographica Sinica, 2016, 36(4): 483-490.]
[4]	杜德斌, 马亚华. “一带一路”: 中华民族复兴的地缘大战略[J]. 地理研究, 2015, 34(6): 1005-1014.
	[Du D B, Ma Y H.One Belt and One Road: The grand geo-strategy of China’s rise[J]. Geographical Research, 2015, 34(6): 1005-1014.]
[5]	Huang S, Keating B W, Kriz A, et al.Chinese outbound tourism: An epilogue[J]. Journal of Travel & Tourism Marketing, 2015, 32(1-2): 153-159.
[6]	Xiang Y.The characteristics of independent Chinese outbound tourists[J]. Tourism Planning & Development, 2013, 10(2): 134-148.
[7]	Lin V S, Liu A, Song H.Modeling and forecasting Chinese outbound tourism: An econometric approach[J]. Journal of Travel & Tourism Marketing, 2015, 32(1-2): 34-49.
[8]	Li X, Harrill R, Uysal M, et al.Estimating the size of the Chinese outbound travel market: A demand-side approach[J]. Tourism Management, 2010, 31(2): 250-259.
[9]	邢宁宁, 杨双双, 黄宇舟, 等. 90后出境旅游动机及价值追寻[J]. 旅游学刊, 2018, 33(9): 58-69.
	[Xing N N, Yang S S, Huang Y Z, et al.The motivation and value pursuit of outbound tourism of post-90s[J]. Tourism Tribune, 2018, 33(9): 58-69.]
[10]	李享, Banning-Taylor M, Alexander P B, 等. 中国老年人出国旅游需求与制约: 基于北京中老年人市场调查[J]. 旅游学刊, 2014, 29(9): 35-43.
	[Li X, Banning-Taylor M, Alexander P B, et al.Demands and constraints on Chinese elderly people traveling abroad: Based on a market survey of middle-aged and elderly people in Beijing[J]. Tourism Tribune, 2014, 29(9): 35-43.]
[11]	孔海燕, 宋海岩, 窦尚孝. 中国游客赴韩旅游研究: 重要性、满意度及差距[J]. 资源科学, 2015, 37(11): 2129-2139.
	[Kong H Y, Song H Y, Dou S X.Chinese outbound tourists in South Korea: Importance, satisfaction and gaps[J]. Resources Science, 2015, 37(11): 2129-2139.]
[12]	冯志伟, 吴悦芳, 徐红罡. 东道国视域下中国出境游客形象的塑造与认知: 基于泰国媒体文本挖掘视角[J]. 热带地理, 2017, 37(4): 462-472.
	[Feng Z W, Wu Y F, Xu H G.Perception and reacting strategies to Chinese outbound tourist image: Taking Thailand public media as an example[J]. Tropical Geography, 2017, 37(4): 462-472.]
[13]	Keating B W, Huang S, Kriz A, et al.A systematic review of the Chinese outbound tourism literature: 1983-2012[J]. Journal of Travel & Tourism Marketing, 2015, 32(1-2): 2-17.
[14]	蒋依依, 刘祥艳, 宋慧林. 出境旅游需求的影响因素: 兼论发展中经济体与发达经济体的异同[J]. 旅游学刊, 2017, 32(1): 12-21.
	[Jiang Y Y, Liu X Y, Song H L.Influencing factors of outbound tourism and their different functions in developing and developed economies[J]. Tourism Tribune, 2017, 32(1): 12-21.]
[15]	Tse T S M. A review of Chinese outbound tourism research and the way forward[J]. Journal of China Tourism Research, 2015, 11(1): 1-18.
[16]	McDowall S, Wang Y. An analysis of international tourism development in Thailand: 1994-2007[J]. Asia Pacific Journal of Tourism Research, 2009, 14(4): 351-370.
[17]	Lee C G.Are tourist arrivals stationary? Evidence from Singapore[J]. International Journal of Tourism Research, 2009, 11(4): 409-414.
[18]	Mishra S S, Bansal V.Role of source-destination proximity in international inbound tourist arrival: Empirical evidences from India[J]. Asia Pacific Journal of Tourism Research, 2017, 22(5): 540-553.
[19]	Sutton J.From desert to destination: Conceptual insights into the growth of events tourism in the United Arab Emirates[J]. Anatolia, 2016, 27(3): 352-366.
[20]	Rahim H C, Giacomo D C, Vahid G.Cultural and religious tourism development in Iran: Prospects and challenges[J]. Anatolia, 2018, 29(2): 1-11.
[21]	Skivalou M, Filippidi E.Chinese tourism: Development and prospects for Greece[J]. Tourism and Hospitality Research, 2017, 17(3): 325-335.
[22]	李君轶, 纪星, 李振亭. 欧美旅游者在秦始皇帝陵博物院的情感体验时空变化[J]. 人文地理, 2018, 33(3): 129-136.
	[Li J Y, Ji X, Li Z T.Study on spatio-temporal variation of western tourists’ emotional experiences: A case study of Qin Terra-Cotta Warriors and Horses museum[J]. Human Geography, 2018, 33(3): 129-136.]
[23]	刘军胜, 马耀峰. 入境游客与社区居民旅游供给感知测评及差异分析: 以北京市为例[J]. 资源科学, 2016, 38(8): 1476-1490.
	[Liu J S, Ma Y F.Evaluation and difference analysis on inbound tourists and local resident perception for tourism supply in Beijing[J]. Resources Science, 2016, 38(8): 1476-1490.]
[24]	李创新, 马耀峰, 张颖, 等. 1993-2008年区域入境旅游流优势度时空动态演进模式: 基于改进熵值法的实证研究[J]. 地理研究, 2012, 31(2): 257-268.
	[Li C X, Ma Y F, Zhang Y, et al.Dynamic evolution mode of regional dominance indexes of Chinese inbound tourism flows during 1993 to 2008: An empirical research based on modified entropy technology[J]. Geographical Research, 2012, 31(2): 257-268.]
[25]	王凯, 易静, 李皓. 中国入境旅游发展的时空差异演变分析: 1991-2010[J]. 人文地理, 2014, 29(1): 134-140.
	[Wang K, Yi J, Li H.An analysis of the spatio-temporal disparities of inbound tourism development in China: 1991-2010[J]. Human Geography, 2014, 29(1): 134-140.]
[26]	薛华菊, 马耀峰, 黄毅, 等. 基于ESDA-GIS中国入境旅游流质时空演进模式及影响因素研究[J]. 资源科学, 2014, 36(9): 1860-1869.
	[Xue H J, Ma Y F, Huang Y, et al.The spatial-temporal evolution of inbound tourist flow quality using an ESDA-GIS framework[J]. Resources Science, 2014, 36(9): 1860-1869.]
[27]	刘军胜, 马耀峰. 河南省城市入境旅游规模与位序差异化[J]. 经济地理, 2012, 32(6): 150-155.
	[Liu J S, Ma Y F.Research on disparity of inbound tourism size and rank for cities in Henan Province[J]. Economic Geography, 2012, 32(6): 150-155.]
[28]	刘焱序, 王仰麟, 彭建, 等. 城郊聚落景观的集聚特征分析方法选择研究[J]. 地理科学, 2015, 35(6): 674-682.
	[Liu Y X, Wang Y L, Peng J, et al.Selection of different clustering algorithms for settlement landscape aggregation in suburb[J]. Scientia Geographica Sinaca, 2015, 35(6): 674-682.]
[29]	张俊, 谢朝武, 郑向敏. 基于ESDA方法的中部区域服务产业格局演变探析[J]. 地域研究与开发, 2013, 32(2): 6-11.
	[Zhang J, Xie C W, Zheng X M.Evolvement of the service industry’s pattern in the Central Region based on ESDA[J]. Areal Research and Development, 2013, 32(2): 6-11.]
[30]	王劲峰, 徐成东. 地理探测器: 原理与展望[J]. 地理学报, 2017, 72(1): 116-134.
	[Wang J F, Xu C.Geodetector: Principle and prospective[J]. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2017, 72(1): 116-134.]
[31]	刘焱序, 任志远. 基于区域地形起伏度模型的陕西农村劳动力时空格局[J]. 山地学报, 2012, 30(4): 431-438.
	[Liu Y X, Ren Z Y.Spatio-temporal patterns of Shaanxi rural labor base on the regional terrain model[J]. Journal of Mountain Science, 2012, 30(4): 431-438.]
[32]	蒋依依, 温晓金, 刘焱序. 2001-2015年中国出境旅游流位序规模演化特征[J]. 地理学报, 2018, 73(12): 2468-2480.
	[Jiang Y Y, Wen X J, Liu Y X.Evolutionary characteristics of China’s outbound tourism flow in rank-size distribution from 2001 to 2015[J]. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2018, 73(12): 2468-2480.]
[33]	姚梦汝, 陈焱明, 周桢津, 等. 中国-东盟旅游流网络结构特征与重心轨迹演变[J]. 经济地理, 2018, 38(7): 181-189.
	[Yao M R, Chen Y M, Zhou Z J, et al.The evolution of structural features and gravity center for China-ASEAN tourist flow network[J]. Economic Geography, 2018, 38(7): 181-189.]
[34]	Jørgensen M T, Law R, King B E.Understanding the past, anticipating the future: A critical assessment of China outbound tourism research[J]. Journal of Travel & Tourism Marketing, 2017, 34(7): 880-891.
[35]	杨莹莹, 陈瑛. 我国出境旅游研究综述与展望[J]. 资源开发与市场, 2018, 34(7): 977-981.
	[Yang Y Y, Chen Y.Research and review on China outbound tourism and the way forward[J]. Resource Development & Market, 2018, 34(7): 977-981.]
[36]	杨旸, 刘宏博, 李想. 文化距离对旅游目的地选择的影响: 以日本和中国大陆出境游为例[J]. 旅游学刊, 2016, 31(10): 45-55.
	[Yang Y, Liu H B, Li X.The influences of national cultural distance on international destination choice of Japanese and Chinese residents[J]. Tourism Tribune, 2016, 31(10): 45-55.]
[37]	Sparks B, Pan G W.Chinese outbound tourists: Understanding their attitudes, constraints and use of information sources[J]. Tourism Management, 2009, 30(4): 483-494.
[38]	朱丹, 王珂, 徐红罡. 中国出境游对构建国家软实力的影响与实施路径: 基于澜湄次区域的研究[J]. 世界地理研究, 2018, 27(4): 45-56.
	[Zhu D, Wang K, Xu H G.The impact and implementation path of Chinese outbound tourism to construct China’s soft power[J]. World Regional Studies, 2018, 27(4): 45-56. ]

Inbound tourism from destination countries in the “Belt and Road” region and corresponding outbound tourism from China during 2001 to 2015

RichHTML

PDF (PC)

Like

Knowledge

Abstract

Cite this article

share this article

Figures/Tables 4

References 38

Related Articles 11

Metrics

Comments

Recommended 0

冷热点类型	（中国游客）出境规模的冷热点国家数				（目的地游客）入境规模的冷热点国家数
冷热点类型	2001	2005	2010	2015	2001	2005	2010	2015
极冷点	12	18	28	16	4	4	3	1
冷点	25	21	15	23	6	6	4	5
较冷点	6	5	1	4	5	1	3	0
较热点	0	1	1	0	0	1	1	1
热点	1	0	0	0	1	0	2	3
极热点	10	11	10	10	0	0	0	0

[1]	Zhongjian LI, Gennian SUN. International influences of outbound tourism from China, the United States, the United Kingdom, Germany, and France：Spatiotemporal analysis based on economic perspective [J]. Resources Science, 2019, 41(5): 919-930.
[2]	Jiayi LIU, Yuping CHEN, Xin XIA. Research on the effect of air pollution on the development of inbound tourism in China [J]. Resources Science, 2018, 40(7): 1473-1482.
[3]	SHI Zhangyu,ZHOU Baohua,SHEN Jinghong,ZHU Lei. Interactions between inbound tourism from nine Asian countries and import and export trade [J]. Resources Science, 2015, 37(9): 1871-1879.
[4]	LI Chuangxin,MA Yaofeng,WANG Yongming. Regional structure and dynamic evolution of Chinese inbound tourism from 1993 to 2012 based on a spatial and temporal view and K-Mmeans spectrum clustering methods [J]. Resources Science, 2015, 37(11): 2100-2110.
[5]	KONG Haiyan,SONG Haiyan,DOU Shangxiao. Chinese outbound tourists in South Korea：importance,satisfaction and gaps [J]. Resources Science, 2015, 37(11): 2129-2139.
[6]	HUANG Xiaoting,ZHANG Xiaoshan,ZHAO Ying. Temporal-spatial behavior patterns of Chinese mainland tourists at Ocean Park Hong Kong [J]. Resources Science, 2015, 37(11): 2140-2150.
[7]	LIN Guowei,BAI Kai,LIU Xiaohui. The influence of reference groups on the conformity behavior of overseas shopping by Chinese tourists [J]. Resources Science, 2015, 37(11): 2151-2161.
[8]	BAI Kai, LU Chunyan. Spatial Coupling Relationship of the Attraction of Provincial Inbound Tourism in China [J]. , 2011, 33(5): 905-911.
[9]	DU Zhongchao, LI Ling, WEN Qi. Analysis on Spatial Evolvement of Inbound Tourist Destination in China [J]. , 2009, 31(6): 994-999.
[10]	CHU Yuliang, GAO Jun, MA Hongli, MA Yaofeng, ZHANG Youyin. Research of the Location Entropy Difference of Inbound Tourism Enterprises in Typical Tourism Regions of China [J]. , 2009, 31(3): 435-441.
[11]	LIU Hong-ying, MA Yao-feng. Coupling Analysis of the Linkages between Inbound Tourism Flows and Tourism Economy:A Case Study of the Westward Diffusion of Tourists through Shanghai [J]. , 2008, 30(8): 1162-1168.