考虑碳排放成本的中国农业绿色生产率变化

doi:10.18402/resci.2019.05.06

Abstract

Abstract:

Green development will become the key component of China’s future agricultural growth. Measuring green productivity of agriculture is conducive to identifying its current development stage. By introducing carbon emissions trading theory and taking agricultural green GDP considering carbon emission cost as output, nitrogen and phosphorus losses as an input factor, and using parameter stochastic frontier analysis (SFA) model, this study calculated and analyzed the provincial-level green total factor productivity (GTFP) change index of China’s agricultural sector from 2000 to 2015, then compared it with the traditional total factor productivity (TFP). The results show that the average annual decline of China’s agricultural GTFP was 0.14% during the study period, mainly due to the “retrogression” of environmental technologies before 2008/2009. The temporal trend fluctuated and the spatial distribution varied between regions. In addition, the index of TFP in agriculture was superior to GTFP’s, with an average annual increase of 0.02%,mainly due to technological progress, but the average traditional technology efficiency is declining. The key to improving the green productivity of agriculture in China in the future is to shift the focus of research and development investment away from overemphasizing output, strengthen the research and development of agricultural environmental technologies, and improve the technical efficiency of the traditional input factors.

Key words: agricultural green productivity, cost of carbon emissions, nitrogen loss, phosphorus loss, stochastic frontier analysis, China

Jintao ZHAN, Yujiao XU, Jihong GE. Change in agricultural green productivity in China considering the cost of carbon emissions[J].Resources Science, 2019, 41(5): 884-896.

Figures/Tables 6

Table 1

Table 2

Table 3

Estimation results of stochastic frontier analysis (SFA) model"

自变量	GTFP模型			TFP模型
自变量	估计系数	标准误	伴随概率	估计系数	标准误	伴随概率
t	-0.269***	0.088	0.002	-0.186***	0.066	0.005
0.5 × t × t	0.011***	0.002	0.000	0.011***	0.002	0.000
lnx₁	1.559**	0.654	0.017	0.654*	0.346	0.059
lnx₂	-0.880	1.004	0.381	-0.926	0.743	0.213
lnx₃	-2.204**	0.984	0.025	-0.493	0.724	0.496
lnx₄	10.720***	1.941	0.000	1.997**	0.964	0.038
lnx₅	0.223	0.382	0.559	0.407	0.256	0.112
lnne	-7.329***	1.651	0.000
lnpe	-1.684***	0.629	0.007
t × lnx₁	0.005	0.010	0.611	0.041***	0.011	0.000
t × lnx₂	-0.008	0.013	0.511	-0.023	0.014	0.104
t × lnx₃	0.005	0.010	0.601	-0.008	0.011	0.473
t × lnx₄	0.049**	0.023	0.031	-0.007	0.013	0.568
t × lnx₅	-0.001	0.005	0.791	0.012**	0.005	0.011
t × lnne	-0.040*	0.022	0.063
t × lnpe	-0.005	0.008	0.570
lnx₁ × lnx₁	-0.021	0.091	0.822	0.231**	0.090	0.010
lnx₂ × lnx₂	0.372***	0.121	0.002	0.309**	0.122	0.011
lnx₃ × lnx₃	0.155***	0.043	0.000	0.170***	0.054	0.002
lnx₄ × lnx₄	-0.624**	0.290	0.031	0.158	0.114	0.166
lnx₅ × lnx₅	0.022**	0.010	0.032	-0.014	0.011	0.203
lnne × lnne	-0.597***	0.210	0.004
lnpe × lnpe	-0.219***	0.051	0.000
lnx₁ × lnx₂	-0.404***	0.105	0.000	-0.298***	0.112	0.008
lnx₁ × lnx₃	0.174**	0.073	0.018	0.050	0.082	0.542
lnx₁ × lnx₄	0.525**	0.211	0.013	-0.243**	0.102	0.017
lnx₁ × lnx₅	-0.094**	0.040	0.020	-0.080***	0.031	0.010
lnx₁ × lnne	-0.417**	0.163	0.011
lnx₁ × lnpe	0.123*	0.068	0.068
lnx₂ × lnx₃	-0.088	0.159	0.579	-0.242	0.160	0.131
lnx₂ × lnx₄	-0.933***	0.259	0.000	-0.247	0.160	0.122
lnx₂ × lnx₅	0.156***	0.048	0.001	0.098**	0.047	0.036
lnx₂ × lnne	0.654***	0.170	0.000
lnx₂ × lnpe	-0.034	0.088	0.701
lnx₃ × lnx₄	-0.198	0.178	0.267	0.072	0.166	0.664
lnx₃ × lnx₅	-0.072*	0.042	0.089	-0.082**	0.036	0.022
lnx₃ × lnne	0.380***	0.107	0.000
lnx₃ × lnpe	-0.310***	0.075	0.000
lnx₄ × lnx₅	-0.103	0.075	0.167	0.048	0.049	0.325
lnx₄ × lnne	0.920**	0.424	0.030
lnx₄ × lnpe	0.710***	0.180	0.000
lnx₅ × lnne	0.044	0.073	0.544
lnx₅ × lnpe	0.053	0.043	0.211
lnne × lnpe	-0.160	0.165	0.334
Constant	-6.999	4.95 1	0.157	2.209	2.150	0.304
z_itδ	-0.382*	0.179	0.033	-0.602	0.500	0.228
σ	0.329***	0.042	0.000	0.467***	0.108	0.000
σ_v	0.035***	0.010	0.001	0.038***	0.012	0.002
λ	9.410***	0.043	0.000	12.161***	0.103	0.000
Wald统计量	65 734.680			44 475.340
Wald伴随概率	0.000			0.000
对数似然函数	328.154			197.709
观测数	496			496

Table 3

Table 4

Table 5

Annual average change index and decomposition index of agricultural green total factor productivity (GTFP) and total factor productivity (TFP) in 31 provinces of China’s mainland from 2000 to 2015"

省份	包含环境因素			GTFPCH较TFPCH的增减	不包含环境因素
省份	GTFPCH	GECH	GTCH		TFPCH	ECH	TCH
辽宁	0.998 3	1.002 1	0.996 2	-	1.003 7	0.998 5	1.005 5
吉林	1.021 3	1.014 1	1.007 4	+	0.969 8	0.972 7	0.998 1
黑龙江	0.997 8	0.997 1	1.000 1	+	0.993 9	1.010 0	0.983 7
东北区平均	1.005 8	1.004 4	1.001 2	+	0.989 1	0.993 8	0.995 7
北京	0.969 7	0.990 6	0.979 5	-	0.987 2	0.988 7	1.001 7
天津	0.986 6	1.002 4	0.983 5	+	0.977 2	1.005 0	0.970 7
山东	1.018 7	0.996 1	1.024 4	+	1.006 2	0.988 0	1.019 7
河北	1.019 7	1.013 9	1.007 4	+	1.019 2	1.021 6	0.999 3
河南	0.994 8	0.978 4	1.017 5	+	0.992 0	0.974 0	1.019 3
黄淮海区平均	0.997 9	0.996 3	1.002 5	+	0.996 4	0.995 5	1.002 2
上海	0.962 1	0.997 8	0.964 3	-	0.981 4	1.002 6	0.979 6
江苏	0.991 6	0.995 0	0.996 5	-	1.005 4	1.000 6	1.004 4
浙江	0.979 8	0.990 5	0.989 8	-	1.008 4	0.989 9	1.019 4
安徽	1.010 6	0.993 9	1.017 8	+	0.982 6	0.983 2	0.999 8
湖北	0.993 8	0.995 6	0.998 4	+	0.989 4	0.990 2	0.999 2
湖南	0.987 9	0.983 5	1.004 5	-	1.010 0	0.986 2	1.024 4
江西	1.019 3	1.010 0	1.010 2	+	1.006 0	1.003 5	1.002 7
长江中下游区平均	0.992 2	0.995 2	0.997 4	-	0.997 6	0.993 8	1.004 2
广东	0.995 8	0.988 8	1.007 6	-	1.021 2	0.977 5	1.045 5
广西	1.017 5	0.996 6	1.022 8	+	1.009 6	0.987 2	1.024 4
福建	1.021 0	1.017 1	1.004 7	+	1.015 2	1.002 2	1.013 5
海南	1.042 5	1.035 5	1.008 6	+	0.987 6	0.982 8	1.004 0
华南区平均	1.019 2	1.009 5	1.010 9	+	1.008 4	0.987 4	1.021 8
内蒙古	0.967 0	0.976 2	0.991 0	+	0.954 7	0.979 4	0.975 4
山西	1.038 3	1.032 8	1.005 5	+	1.023 3	1.025 2	0.999 0
陕西	1.016 9	1.016 5	1.001 4	+	1.002 8	1.006 0	0.997 5
宁夏	1.038 4	1.057 4	0.983 8	+	1.013 5	1.052 7	0.963 7
甘肃	0.994 7	1.001 0	0.993 2	-	1.022 7	1.012 2	1.010 6
青海	1.017 2	1.037 5	0.983 3	+	1.013 9	1.032 1	0.984 3
新疆	0.978 7	0.991 4	0.987 3	+	0.972 5	0.986 8	0.985 9
西北及长城沿线区平均	1.007 3	1.016 1	0.992 2	+	1.000 5	1.013 5	0.988 1
四川	0.985 8	0.992 2	0.993 9	-	1.025 1	0.995 2	1.030 3
重庆	0.974 4	0.992 3	0.981 4	-	1.002 5	0.997 1	1.004 4
贵州	0.995 7	1.005 3	0.988 7	-	1.051 5	1.022 1	1.025 5
云南	0.956 9	0.963 3	0.993 1	-	0.998 0	0.968 5	1.030 4
西藏	0.965 6	0.981 2	0.985 2	-	0.960 9	0.970 9	0.991 0
西南区平均	0.975 7	0.986 9	0.988 5	-	1.007 6	0.990 8	1.016 3

Table 5

Figure 1

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时期	方法	不包含环境因素			包含环境因素			作者
时期	方法	TFP变化指数	技术效率变化指数	技术进步指数	GTFP变化指数	技术效率变化指数	技术进步指数	作者
1978—2008年	SBM-M				1.029 4	0.970 5	1.060 8	李谷成^[13]
1991—2011年	DEA				1.009 4	0.998 3	1.042 0	杜江^[15]
1992—2010年	SFA- M	1.056 0	0.992 4	1.064 0	1.056 1	0.998 5	1.057 7	王奇等^[12]
1993—2010年	DEA-ML	1.043 5	0.985 1	1.027 9	1.023 3	0.995 7	1.018 9	韩海彬等^[16]
1997—2011年	DEA-M	1.041 3	0.982 3	1.063 7	1.040 3			崔晓等^[17]
1998—2009年	DEA-ML	1.051 0	0.981 0	1.071 0	1.029 0	1.001 0	1.028 0	潘丹等^[18]
1999—2008年	DEA-ML				1.018 0	0.997 0	1.021 0	杨俊^[19]
2000—2013年	DEA- L	1.877 1	1.002 3	1.092 9	1.150 1	1.000 2	1.016 1	梁俊等^[20]

统计量	最大值	最小值	平均值	标准差
农业绿色生产总值/亿元	1 991.62	19.59	580.21	443.62
农业从业人员数量/万人	3 558.55	33.38	953.89	750.33
农作物总播种面积/千hm²	14 424.96	173.73	5 103.65	3 572.42
农业机械总动力/万kW	13 353.02	95.32	2 608.98	2 656.10
有效化肥施用量/万t	678.09	2.32	155.08	128.29
农业R&D资本存量/百万元	16 151.69	9.35	1 654.13	2 062.60
氮流失量/万t	28.90	0.14	8.68	6.74
磷流失量/万t	4.48	0.02	0.92	0.87
CO₂排放量/万t	805.17	3.41	221.96	173.98
碳排放成本/亿元	3.35	0.01	0.83	0.69

年份	包含环境因素			不包含环境因素
年份	GTFPCH	GECH	GTCH	TFPCH	ECH	TCH
2000/2001	0.888 4	0.976 1	0.910 0	0.889 9	0.979 3	0.908 9
2001/2002	0.963 4	1.044 3	0.922 3	0.953 1	1.028 1	0.927 4
2002/2003	0.888 7	0.950 9	0.934 8	0.901 0	0.955 9	0.942 8
2003/2004	0.957 0	1.010 0	0.947 4	0.970 7	1.014 7	0.956 5
2004/2005	1.033 1	1.075 5	0.960 1	1.011 5	1.043 7	0.969 0
“十五”期间平均	0.946 1	1.011 4	0.934 9	0.945 2	1.004 3	0.940 9
2005/2006	1.007 9	1.036 1	0.972 8	1.013 9	1.033 4	0.981 6
2006/2007	0.963 1	0.977 3	0.985 6	0.964 1	0.970 0	0.994 1
2007/2008	0.972 8	0.974 4	0.998 3	0.969 6	0.963 8	1.006 1
2008/2009	1.075 3	1.063 7	1.010 9	1.083 1	1.064 0	1.017 9
2009/2010	1.051 0	1.027 4	1.023 3	1.050 7	1.021 0	1.029 5
“十一五”期间平均	1.014 0	1.015 8	0.998 2	1.016 3	1.010 4	1.005 8
2010/2011	0.996 4	0.962 4	1.035 6	0.993 5	0.955 1	1.040 7
2011/2012	1.059 0	1.010 5	1.048 0	1.064 0	1.011 3	1.052 2
2012/2013	1.032 9	0.974 2	1.060 2	1.043 2	0.980 6	1.063 9
2013/2014	1.048 9	0.978 6	1.072 1	1.051 9	0.977 8	1.075 9
2014/2015	1.041 8	0.960 9	1.084 2	1.043 4	0.959 2	1.088 0
“十二五”期间平均	1.035 8	0.977 3	1.060 0	1.039 2	0.976 8	1.064 1
研究期内平均	0.998 6	1.001 5	0.997 7	1.000 2	0.997 2	1.003 6

Change in agricultural green productivity in China considering the cost of carbon emissions

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