产业结构演进对海洋渔业经济波动的影响

doi:10.18402/resci.2019.02.08

Abstract

Abstract:

The structural adjustment and economic fluctuation is an important research content of economics. Clarifying the relationship between structural adjustment and economic fluctuations plays an important role in deepening the supply-side structural reform. To consolidate the fundamental status of the marine fishery economy, this current study analyzed the driving force of marine fishery economic fluctuation from the perspective of industrial structure according to industrial structure theory and used dynamic panel model to judge whether the evolution of marine fishery industry structure is ironing or amplifying the economic fluctuation of marine fishery. The research results showed that： (1) The evolution of marine fishery industry structure could cause economic fluctuations The differences in the economic fluctuations of marine fisheries affected by different marine fishery industry structures were obvious. (2) The “leverage effect” from the marine fishery industry structure advanced and processing coefficient was obvious. The amplification effect of the advanced industrial structure of marine fishery industry was more significant than processing coefficient. (3) The “ironing effect” of the rationalization, softening, and catching structure of marine fisheries on the economic fluctuation of marine fisheries was significant. The suppression effect of industrial structure rationalization of marine fishery industry was higher than that of the catching structure, but lower than the softening of industrial structure. In order to realize the steady advancement of the structural reform of the supply-side of marine fishery and promote the high quality development of marine fisheries economy, it is essential to promote the advanced industrial structure. It is also necessary to pay more attention to the ironing effect of the rationalization and softening of industrial structure on the economic fluctuation of marine fishery.

Key words: marine fishery, economic fluctuations, industrial structure, leverage effect, ironing effect, China

Bo WANG, Guojiang NI, Limin HAN. Impact of the evolution of industry structure on the economic fluctuation of marine fishery[J].Resources Science, 2019, 41(2): 289-300.

Figures/Tables 6

Table 1

Table 2

Calculation methods of development data for some marine fisheries industries"

产业形态		计算方法
海水育苗	海水育苗产值 $= 海水养殖产量水产养殖产量 × 水产苗种产值$
海产品加工	海产品加工产值 $= 海水加工产品水产加工品总量 × 水产品加工产值$
海洋渔船渔机修造	海洋渔船鱼机修造产值 $= 海洋机动渔船年末拥有量机动渔船年末拥有量 × 渔船渔机修造产值$
海洋渔用绳网制造	海洋渔用绳网制造产值 $= 海域机动渔船年末拥有量机动渔船年末拥有量 × 渔用绳网制造产值$
海洋渔用饲料、药物、海洋渔业建筑	海洋渔用饲料、药物与渔业建筑产值 $= 海水养殖产量水产养殖产量 × 渔用饲料产值 + 渔用药物产值 + 建筑产值$
海洋水产流通	海洋水产流通产值 $= 海产品产量 - 用于加工的海产品数量 + 海水加工产品水产品总量 - 用于加工的水产品数量 + 水产加工品总量 × 水产流通产值$
海洋水产(仓储)运输	海洋水产（仓储）产值 $= 海产品产量 + 用于加工的海产品数量 + 海水加工产品水产品总量 + 用于加工的水产品数量 + 水产加工品总量 × 水产流通产值$
海洋休闲渔业	$海洋休闲渔业产值 = 海洋渔业第一产业产值渔业第一产业产值 × 休闲渔业产值$

Table 2

Table 3

Table 4

Figure 1

Figure 2

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变量类别	变量名称	变量代码
被解释变量	海洋渔业经济波动	wgfp
核心解释变量	海洋渔业产业结构	MFS
	产业结构高级化	sadvance
	产业结构合理化	srationalize
	产业结构软化	ssoften
	养捕结构	mfcs
	加工系数	mfsp
中间变量	海洋渔业劳动力	flabor
中间变量	海洋渔业资本	mfcapital

变量	Fisher-ADF检验				LLC检验	检验结果
变量	P	Z	L*	P_m	Adjusted t^*	检验结果
wgfp_i_,_t	63.251***	-5.143***	-5.384***	6.839***	-2.863***	平稳
wflabor_i_,_t	70.806***	-5.784***	-6.115***	8.033***	-5.264***	平稳
wmfcapital_i_,_t	79.098***	-6.332***	-6.869***	9.344***	-4.374***	平稳
g.sadvance	138.655***	-9.582***	-12.192***	18.761***	-9.871***	平稳
g.sadvance_i_,_t·wgfp_i_._t	65.176***	-5.329***	-5.575***	7.143***	-2.759***	平稳
g.srationalize_i_,t	68.557***	-5.725***	-5.952***	7.670***	-5.285***	平稳
g.srationalize_i_,_t·wgfp_i_._t	70.168***	-5.803***	-6.077***	7.932***	-3.473***	平稳
g.ssoften_i_,_t	76.329***	-6.183***	-6.636***	8.906***	-4.731***	平稳
g.ssoften_i_,_t·wgfp_i_,_t	95.259***	-7.509***	-8.365***	11.899***	-5.672***	平稳
g.mfcs_i_,_t	69.543***	-5.576***	-5.987***	7.833***	-3.201***	平稳
g.mfcs_i_,_t·wgfp_i_,_t	67.978***	-5.740***	-5.910***	7.586***	-5.236***	平稳
g.mfsp_i_,_t	74.200***	-6.108***	-6.462***	8.570***	-3.566***	平稳
g.mfsp_i_,_t·wgfp_i_,_t	73.217***	-6.082***	-6.381***	8.414***	-4.917***	平稳

解释变量	被解释变量（wgfp_i,t）
解释变量	模型1	模型2	模型3	模型4	模型5
wgfp_i_,_t_-1	-0.040 (-0.41)	0.110 (0.45)	-0.415*** (-5.10)	-0.042 (-0.22)	-0.256 (-1.24)
wflabor_i_{, t}	-0.200 (-0.53)	-0.131 (-0.64)	-0.080 (-0.62)	-0.437*** (-2.01)	-0.396 (-0.95)
wmfcapital_i_,_t	0.094 (1.44)	-0.225* (-1.95)	-0.027 (-0.26)	0.103 (0.81)	0.139 (0.72)
g.sadvance	0.088** (2.11)
g.sadvance_i_,_t·wgfp_i_._t	2.533*** (4.28)
g.srationalize_i_,_t		-0.466* (-2.55)
g.srationalize_i_,_t·wgfp_i_._t		3.046** (2.07)
g.ssoften_i_,_t			-0.436*** (-3.59)
g.ssoften_i_,_t·wgfp_i_,_t			2.288*** (3.27)
g.mfcs_i_,_t				-0.205** (-2.49)
g.mfcs_i_,_t·wgfp_i_,_t				2.442** (1.87)
g.mfsp_i_,_t					1.229** (1.90)
g.mfsp_i_,_t·wgfp_i_,_t					-2.789*** (-2.60)
AR(2)	0.730	0.994	0.091	0.861	0.119
Sargan检验(p-value)	0.054	0.261	0.374	0.115	0.884
Hansen检验(p-value)	0.999	0.997	0.985	0.992	0.731
Wald chi2	1 058.69***	81.05***	37.62***	20.34***	13.10**
Number of obs	110	110	110	110	110

Impact of the evolution of industry structure on the economic fluctuation of marine fishery

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