中国国际贸易海运CO2排放特征及驱动因素研究

doi:10.18402/resci.2018.10.20

Abstract

Abstract:

A bottom-up approach provided by IPCC was developed for calculating the CO₂ emissions from China's international seaborne trade sector during the period of 2001—2016. Based on the freight transport volume and considering the various commodities, shipping modes can be categorized into liquid bulk shipping, dry bulk shipping, and containers. The specified CO₂ emissions were estimated referring to the considered shipping modes. The aggregated CO₂ emissions were characterized to figure out the features during the study period. The decomposition analysis adopting Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index (LMDI) method was introduced to investigate the key influencing factors that initiated an impact on the CO₂ emission changes in the China's international maritime activities. The results demonstrated that ①. The CO₂ emissions from China's international seaborne trade witnessed a significant increase between 2001 and 2016. The short-term evolution trend did exhibit three different stages. ② The factors of per capita GDP and population size were proved to be the positive contributors all the time. The per capita GDP was served as the major force, which reflected the close correlation between the CO₂emissions and the economic development. ③ Energy intensity of vessels generated CO₂ emissions during the study period and it had become the most powerful driving factor for the future CO₂ emissions reduction in maritime transportation sector. The reduction of the marine transportation intensity appeared to be another inhibiting factor that contributed to the mitigation of the CO₂ emissions. And ④ Under the business-as-usual (BAU) scenario without launching the new policies, CO₂ emissions from China's international maritime transportation will keep on as an increase trend in the future. It is desirable for policy makers to develop future mitigation policies according to this work.

Key words: international trade, maritime transportation, LMDI, CO₂ emissions mitigation, policy implications, China

Xuefei MA, Hualong YANG, Yuwei XING. Study on characteristics and driving factors of CO₂ emissions from China's international maritime transportation sector[J].Resources Science, 2018, 40(10): 2132-2142.

Figures/Tables 9

Table 1

Two exceptional cases in LMDI decomposition"

	$T S i t T S i 0$	$△ C ti, i$	$△ C rg, i$	$△ C p, i$	$△ C ts, i$	$△ C ei, i$
情形1	0	0	0	0	$C i t - C i 0 / 2$	$C i t - C i 0 / 2$
情形2	+	0	0	0	0	$C i t - C i 0$

Table 1

Figure 1

Figure 2

Figure 3

Table 2

The cumulative effects and contributions of five driving forces on CO2 emissions changes from 2001 to 2016"

	$Δ C ei$	$Δ C ts$	$Δ C ti$	$Δ C rg$	$Δ C p$	$Δ C tot$
CO₂累计变化/万t	-1 408.21	-1 065.08	938.97	11 914.70	855.25	11 235.64
CO₂累计变化贡献率/%	-12.6	-9.4	8.4	106	7.6	100

Table 2

Figure 4

Figure 5

Table 3

Effect of commodity structure on CO2 emissions from 2001 to 2016 (万t)"

年份	$Δ C ts$	$Δ C ts 1$	$Δ C ts 2$	$Δ C ts 3$
2001—2002	44.41	-14.65	-11.82	70.88
2002—2003	91.92	65.95	-49.06	75.03
2003—2004	84.03	50.30	-51.21	84.94
2004—2005	-23.43	-143.37	54.20	65.74
2005—2006	-44.45	-80.41	42.51	-6.55
2006—2007	33.68	-99.84	21.23	112.29
2007—2008	67.92	97.12	-58.09	28.89
2008—2009	-620.42	-89.60	258.61	-789.43
2009—2010	51.87	73.56	-44.61	22.92
2010—2011	-134.70	-120.04	93.01	-107.67
2011—2012	-170.43	-57.59	83.91	-196.74
2012—2013	-171.58	-105.62	103.07	-169.03
2013—2014	-262.32	-18.84	103.42	-346.90
2014—2015	186.00	164.33	-135.08	156.74
2015—2016	-197.84	233.05	-23.45	-407.44
2001—2016	-1 065.08	-45.65	386.89	-1 406.32

Table 3

Figure 6

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Study on characteristics and driving factors of CO₂ emissions from China's international maritime transportation sector

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Study on characteristics and driving factors of CO2 emissions from China's international maritime transportation sector

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Study on characteristics and driving factors of CO₂ emissions from China's international maritime transportation sector