改进选择实验法在居民浒苔治理意愿评估中的应用

doi:10.18402/resci.2018.10.04

Abstract

Abstract:

Choice experiment is an advanced method for evaluating non-market items by acquiring individual's preference information through a series of questionnaires. Faced with a large information load of selection sets, the respondents often use cut-offs to simplify the decision-making process, which may make the traditional model selection generating biased estimates. In order to assess residents’ preference and willingness to pay for the governance of the Enteromorpha prolifera in Qingdao, we designed the choice experiment including attribute cut-offs and incorporate attribute cutoffs into the random parameter logit model. Data for this study were collected from the field research in Qingdao. The results demonstrated that attribute cut-offs and their violation can be universal. The ignorance of this situation will make the estimates biased, which illustrates the essence to introduce cut-offs into the model. Comparisons between models with/without attribute cut-offs suggest that the use of cut-offs will significantly improve the goodness-of-fit of the model and better explain the respondents’ selection behavior. Results from estimation of models further indicate that each governance attribute has a positive impact on the level of utility and the attribute cutoffs of marine coastal landscape and coastal water quality have a negative impact on the level of utility. The willingness to pay for strengthen governance of the Enteromorpha prolifera to improve the coastal landscape is 90.68 CNY, the willingness to pay to improve coastal water quality is 84.92 CNY, the willingness to pay to improve marine biological resource is 43.17 CNY, and the willingness to pay to improve biodiversity is 49.34 CNY. The overall ecological damage cost is 3.3 billion CNY per year. Compared to the traditional model, the model with attribute cut-offs will better reflect the actual marginal utility and improve the validity of the estimate of willingness to pay.

Key words: attribute cut-offs, choice experiment, the governance of Enteromorpha prolifera, willingness to pay, Qingdao

Jingzhu SHAN, Jingmei LI, Yufei LIN, Guoshan WANG. Application of the choice experiment to the evaluation of willingness to manage Enteromorpha prolifera disasters from the perspective of attribute cut-offs[J].Resources Science, 2018, 40(10): 1943-1953.

Figures/Tables 5

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References 32

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修复要素	状态水平	解释
滨海景观	良好	治理方案使浒苔得到全面清理,该年海面及海岸保持完全无浒苔,滨海景观完全恢复至浒苔发生前的基线水平
	中等	治理方案使多数浒苔得到清理,该年海面及海岸偶尔漂浮、堆积少量浒苔
	较差*	治理方案效果不佳,该年海面及海岸不断漂浮、堆积大量浒苔,严重影响居民及游客娱乐休闲
近海水质	良好	该年浒苔未腐烂即全部打捞,近海水质完全恢复至浒苔发生前的基线水平
	中等	该年少量浒苔沉降,近海水质略有下降
	较差*	治理方案效果不佳,该年大量浒苔沉降、腐烂,近海水质严重恶化
生物资源	恢复基线水平	治理方案使该年受影响的鱼虾贝藻等生物资源质量提高、数量增加,完全恢复并保持浒苔发生前的基线水平
	略有下降	治理方案使该年受影响的鱼虾贝藻等生物资源质量提高、数量增加,但较基线水平仍略有下降
	明显下降*	治理方案效果不佳,鱼虾贝藻等受影响生物资源质量降低,数量严重减少
生物多样性	恢复基线水平	治理方案使该年受影响海域生物种群结构稳定,物种丰富度提高,完全恢复并保持受影响前的基线水平
	略有下降	治理方案使该年受影响海域生物群落结构稳定,物种丰富度提高,但较基线水平仍略有下降
	明显下降*	治理方案效果不佳,浮游植物等群落结构发生明显不利变化,物种丰富度明显降低
支付意愿/（元/（人•a））	0*,50,100,200	每人每年对治理浒苔达到以上不同状态水平的支付意愿

修复要素	方案A	方案B	方案C
滨海景观	中等	较差	较差
近海水质	较差	较差	较差
生物资源	明显下降	略有下降	明显下降
生物多样性	恢复基线水平	略有下降	明显下降
支付费用/（元/（人•a））	200	50	0
我选择

属性临界值	水平	样本数/个	比例/%	违反比例/%
滨海景观修复最低临界值	良好	236	59.45	57.78
	中等	156	39.29
	较差（保持现状）	5	1.26
近海水质修复最低临界值	良好	250	62.97	54.16
	中等	136	34.26
	较差（保持现状）	11	2.77
海洋生物资源修复最低临界值	恢复基线水平	281	70.78	57.08
	略有下降	102	25.69
	明显下降（保持现状）	14	3.53
生物多样性修复最低临界值	恢复基线水平	268	67.51	55.87
	略有下降	111	27.96
	明显下降（保持现状）	18	4.53
支付金额最高临界值 /（元/（人•a））	0	61	15.37	34.81
	1~200	301	75.82
	>200	35	8.82

变量	无cut-off模型		含cut-off模型
变量	系数	标准误	系数	标准误
X1	0.776***	0.070	0.407**	0.164
X2	0.736***	0.067	0.423***	0.149
X3	0.577***	0.053	0.378***	0.141
X4	0.643***	0.064	0.432***	0.143
Y	-0.004***	0.000 6	0.005***	0.001
VX1			-0.387**	0.187
VX2			-0.320*	0.165
VX3			-0.152	0.155
VX4			-0.165	0.157
VY			-0.013***	0.001
随机参数的标准差
σX1	0.815***	0.089	0.802***	0.088
σX2	0.860***	0.085	0.772***	0.085
σX3	0.465***	0.084	0.436***	0.085
σX4	0.489***	0.124	0.401***	0.132
log likelihood	-1 669.430		-1 606.745
Pseudo R²	0.234		0.263

属性	边际价值
属性	无cut-off模型	含cut-off模型
滨海景观	189.82	90.68
近海水质	180.07	84.92
海洋生物资源	140.50	43.17
生物多样性	157.20	49.34

Application of the choice experiment to the evaluation of willingness to manage Enteromorpha prolifera disasters from the perspective of attribute cut-offs

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