Resources Science ›› 2018, Vol. 40 ›› Issue (9): 1693-1705.doi: 10.18402/resci.2018.09.01

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Study on the influence path of China’s urbanization development on energy consumption based on direct and indirect effect perspective

Min ZHOU1(), Yingying XIE1, Yefei SUN2, Wen GAO1   

  1. 1. School of Management, China University of Mining and Technology, Xuzhou 221008, China
    2. School of Management and Economics, Beijing Institute of Technology, Beijing 100081, China
  • Received:2018-03-19 Revised:2018-06-10 Online:2018-09-20 Published:2018-09-14

Abstract:

Accelerating urbanization and achieving total energy consumption control are two major tasks of China's current development. It is of great realistic significance to recognize the action path to achieve green and sustainable development. Based on Chinese provincial panel data from 1990 to 2016 and urban development theory and economic theory, the two-step system GMM method and the threshold regression model were used to construct the path of conduction factors from the perspective of direct and indirect effects and to test the potential threshold effects. The direct effect is the result of the dominant game between expansion effect and quality effect. The results show that urbanization has a significant expansion effect on energy consumption, but tends to weaken gradually. In the indirect transmission path, the energy-saving effect of the industrial structure change is remarkable. The urbanization accelerates technology agglomeration and spillover and accumulation of “human capital bonus, ” which has reversed the positive direction of technology progress and human capital act on energy consumption in the direct effect. However, China’s urbanization is still not divorced from the stage of high carbonization and fails to produce significant energy savings effect as expected. And population and economic growth are still important inducements for energy consumption to keep rising in the process of urbanization. Finally, this paper verifies the threshold effect of different conduction factors, that is, the influence of urbanization on energy consumption is different with the development level of each factor. Therefore, the government and enterprises should combine action path, direction and the threshold stage of different factor, take measures according to local conditions, pay attention to the input of science technology and manpower, reduce the consumption of exhausted energy, optimize the structure of energy consumption, enhance the quality effect, and realize the purpose of energy saving.

Key words: urbanization, energy consumption, influence path, threshold effect, China