基于社会网络视角的土地整治重大项目实施风险识别与评价方法

doi:10.18402/resci.2018.06.05

Abstract

Abstract:

The risk identification and control of major land consolidation projects is important for ensuring their effectiveness. Based on the whole life cycle of land consolidation, we built a social network model on the basis of recognizing the risk of major land consolidation projects and analyzed the relationships and influence of each risk. We found that from the two dimensions of project stage and factor integration, 39 risk factors can be identified according to the risk subject and risk category. Social network analysis showed that risks are closely linked. Maximum bias exists in the lack of communication between government, having the greatest impact on other risks. The highest degree of intermediation is the lack of communication between construction units, having the strongest control with other risks. The highest agent score is the lack of communication between governments, having a dominant position in coordinating the external risks. According to cohesion characteristics and agency characteristics, the lack of communication between construction units is the most influential risk. The control of the top ten key risks in weighting can effectively reduce at least 7. 12% risk value in major land consolidation projects. Improving the multi-party demand expression mechanism, building a multi-dimensional financial security system, strengthening project quality management and fulfilling the evaluation mechanism are feasible methods of controlling risk. It is necessary to strengthen the management of risk in major land consolidation projects.

Key words: land consolidation, social network model, full cycle life, major projects, implementation risk, identification, evaluation

Wenxin WANG, Xiaobin JIN, Xiaoyan YANG, Xiaomin XIANG, Jing LIU, Yinkang ZHOU. Risk identification and evaluation of major land consolidation projects based on social networks[J].Resources Science, 2018, 40(6): 1138-1149.

Figures/Tables 9

Figure 1

Table 1

Table 2

Figure 2

Table 3

Table 4

Table 5

Table 6

Table 7

Score of the influence of the key risks of major land consolidation projects in research area"

风险指标	好（0~0.2）	较好（0.3~0.4）	较差（0.5~0.6）	差（0.7~0.8）
参与主体信息交流情况	建立了定期交流讨论的工作机制,各主体能够有效传达实际需求,协调解决问题	形成了交流讨论的工作模式,各主体能够协商解决主要问题	没有形成固定的交流讨论工作模式,各主体交流频率较低,解决问题周期较长	没有形成有效的交流讨论工作模式,出现问题难以及时有效解决
资金运行情况	地方有稳定的资金支持,配套资金充足且能按进度及时拨付	地方有较稳定的资金支持,配套资金较充足且能及时拨付	地方资金有时不能按时、足额到位	地方资金不能按时、足额到位
参与主体责任落实情况	权责划分清晰,有专项管理规定	权责划分较清晰,有相关管理规定	缺乏较明确的权责划分依据	缺乏明确的权责划分依据
工程质量情况	单体工程按照设计文件建成、质量符合标准;各类工程衔接顺畅,辅助工程与主体工程同步建成	单体工程按照设计文件建成、质量符合标准;各类工程衔接顺畅,辅助工程与主体工程基本同步建成	单体工程按照设计文件建成、质量符合标准;工程衔接性存在一定问题,辅助工程与主体工程不能同期建成	单体工程按照设计文件建成、质量符合标准;工程衔接性存在较大问题,辅助工程与主体工程不能同期建成
自然条件情况	自然条件和施工条件较好,无影响工程实施的自然灾害	自然条件和施工条件较好,无明显影响工程实施的自然灾害	自然条件较差,对工期或施工造成影响	自然条件差,严重延误工期或增加施工难度
施工单位资质与经验	承包方具备相应资质、经验丰富;施工单位具有严格的工作程序和管理制度等;总承包商严格按照施工合同施工	承包方具备资质,具有一定经验;建立了相关工作程序和管理制度等;总承包商能遵守施工合同	承包方具备资质,但相关经验较少;相关管理制度存在薄弱之处,部分工程存在分包情况	承包方具备资质但缺乏相关经验,管理制度不健全,工程存在分包、转包情况

Table 7

References 29

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	S1F1	S2F1	S3F1	S4F1
S1F1	-	（4,3）	（3,3）	（2,2）
S2F1	-	-	（4,3）	（1,1）
S3F1	-	-	-	（2,2）
S4F1	-	-	（3,3）	-

风险关系	分值
风险关系	5	4	3	2	1	0
政府缺乏沟通是否对管护单位落实管护责任造成影响	显著影响	较大影响	一般影响	有影响	略有影响	不影响
项目区是否存在政府缺乏沟通影响管护单位责任落实的情况	普遍存在	经常存在	时有发生	偶尔存在	不常存在	不存在

序号	风险名	风险编号	入度	出度	度差
1	政府缺乏沟通	S1F1	5	163	158
2	政府责任落实不到位	S1F13	11	52	41
3	村集体缺乏沟通	S6F1	16	42	26
4	设计单位缺乏沟通	S2F1	22	43	21
5	政府资金不足	S1F2	6	26	20
6	自然条件限制	S1F12	0	18	18
7	施工单位经验不足	S3F3	17	34	17
8	监理单位缺乏沟通	S4F1	17	32	15
9	监理单位责任落实不到位	S4F13	19	33	14
10	施工单位技术能力不足	S3F6	24	38	14

序号	风险名	风险编号	中介中心度
1	施工单位缺乏沟通	S3F1	0.049 3
2	监理单位缺乏沟通	S4F1	0.037 4
3	设计单位缺乏沟通	S2F1	0.032 9
4	施工单位工程质量不达标	S3F9	0.026 4
5	政府缺乏沟通	S1F1	0.024 4
6	施工单位技术能力不足	S3F6	0.019 8
7	施工单位资质不满足要求	S3F5	0.017 3
8	村集体缺乏沟通	S6F1	0.016 8
9	施工单位工作失误	S3F10	0.013 5
10	农户利用行为不合理	S7F10	0.013 2

序号	风险名	风险编号	圈内协调者	发言人	守门人	联络人	总数
1	政府缺乏沟通	S1F1	4	57	0	0	61
2	施工单位缺乏沟通	S3F1	1	3	31	1	36
3	设计单位缺乏沟通	S2F1	2	14	9	9	34
4	施工单位资质不满足要求	S3F5	6	0	14	0	20
5	监理单位缺乏沟通	S4F1	0	6	7	5	18
6	政府责任落实不到位	S1F13	0	18	0	0	18
7	监理单位责任落实不到位	S4F13	0	12	1	5	18
8	施工单位资金不足	S3F2	1	0	16	0	17
9	管护单位责任落实不到位	S5F13	4	8	3	1	16
10	施工单位工程质量不达标	S3F9	0	8	0	6	14

Risk identification and evaluation of major land consolidation projects based on social networks

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序号	风险名	风险编号	数值权重	熵值权重	平均权重
1	施工单位缺乏沟通	S3F1	10.19	7.24	8.71
2	政府资金不足	S1F2	4.17	11.86	8.01
3	政府责任落实不到位	S1F13	7.87	7.21	7.54
4	施工单位工程质量不达标	S3F9	5.09	9.69	7.39
5	村集体缺乏沟通	S6F1	6.48	7.66	7.07
6	自然条件限制	S1F12	3.70	10.38	7.04
7	政府缺乏沟通	S1F1	13.43	0.57	7.00
8	施工单位资质不满足要求	S3F5	6.48	6.36	6.42
9	设计单位缺乏沟通	S2F1	12.04	0.04	6.04
10	施工单位经验不足	S3F3	3.24	8.64	5.94
11	监理单位缺乏沟通	S4F1	9.72	1.81	5.77
12	施工单位技术能力不足	S3F6	4.17	7.14	5.66
13	施工单位资金不足	S3F2	2.78	6.60	4.69
14	监理单位责任落实不到位	S4F13	4.17	4.62	4.39
15	施工单位工作失误	S3F10	2.31	4.24	3.28
16	管护单位责任落实不到位	S5F13	2.31	4.24	3.28
17	农户利用行为不合理	S7F10	1.85	1.68	1.77

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