Resources Science ›› 2018, Vol. 40 ›› Issue (4): 784-796.doi: 10.18402/resci.2018.04.12

• Orginal Article • Previous Articles     Next Articles

The influence of population structural change on water consumption in urbanization

Wei JIN1,2(), Hengquan ZHANG1, Hongbo ZHANG2, Wei KONG2(), Guangxiong MAO2, Chenjun ZHANG3, Xiang YAN1,4   

  1. 1. School of Business, Hohai University, Nanjing 211100, China
    2. School of Urban and Environmental Sciences, Huaiyin Normal University, Huai’an 223300, China;
    3. School of Business Administration, Hohai University, Changzhou 213022, China
    4. Business School of Yancheng Teachers University, Yancheng 224007, China
  • Received:2017-08-10 Revised:2018-01-10 Online:2018-05-02 Published:2018-05-02


We used the dynamical system GMM and panel threshold model to analyze the relationship between population structure change and water consumption in 31 provinces of China from 2000 to 2016. We found that the elasticity coefficient of aging population to water consumption is the largest (0.042). Among non-population structure factors, the elasticity coefficient of the water consumption of previous period to this period is the largest (0.978), followed by the water consumption by million CNY of GDP (0.020) and population scale (0.018). Industrial restructuring significantly inhibits water increases (-0.041); other regression results were not significant. Water use in the east is more affected by changes in population structure than other factors. With one percentage point increase in high-end consumption, population urbanization and rural labor force, water consumption respectively increased by 12.1, 6.5 and 3.6 percentage points respectively. Population structure changes in central and western regions did not significantly affect water consumption. The age and industrial structures have a threshold effect on water consumption, and the elastic coefficients are 0.174, 0.150, 0.139 and -0.012, -0.008 and -0.020, respectively. In 2016, only Tibet did not cross the first threshold of the population age structure, while other provinces crossed the second threshold. Beijing and Shanghai have crossed the second threshold of industrial structure in 2016, with 11 provinces in the second phase of the threshold, while the other 18 provinces have not crossed the first threshold. It is necessary to reduce the promoting effect of population structural change on water consumption, appropriately extend the retirement age and rationally control urban floating population. Other measures such as guiding residents to form water-saving ideas and achieving coordinated regional development are also needed.

Key words: population structure change, water consumption, urbanization, system GMM, threshold effect, China