边境贸易地区土地利用变化驱动力演变研究

doi:10.18402/resci.2018.04.07

Abstract

Abstract:

Analyses of land use change driving force is of great significance to understanding the mechanisms of land use change and land use planning. The rapid development of border trade has changed land use structure in border areas. Therefore, the study of driving forces of land use change under the development of border trade becomes increasingly important. We focused on Suifenhe city as a typical case and used landsat images for 1990, 2000, 2011 and 2016, and DEM data and socio-economic statistics. Canonical correlation analysis and a binary logistic regression model were used to analyze the evolution of land use change under rapid development of border trade from two aspects: time macro and spatial microcosmic. We found that the main explanatory variables of cultivated land area change are agricultural total output in the early period and total fixed assets investment and gross national product in the later period. The explanatory variables of forest area changed from the previous period to imports and the latter to exports and international tourist numbers. During the early period of border trade development the main explanatory factor of built-up land is gross fixed asset formation, late due to changes in border trade structure; gross industrial production accounted for this leading role. Topographic conditions have always been an important factor limiting land use pattern in Suifenhe. After 2000 and the establishment of the China-Russia Sui-Bo inter-city trade zone, the border economic cooperation zone and the Suifenhe Comprehensive Bonded Zone have attracted built-up land and impacted land use patterns. The analysis of land use change in Suifenhe enriches research into border cities and provides consultation and suggestions for local sustainable development.

Key words: driving force of land use change, canonical correlation analysis, binary logistic regression model, border trade area, Suifenhe City

Zhengwei LIU, Meichen FU, Qian DING. Driving force evolution of land use change in a border trade area of China[J].Resources Science, 2018, 40(4): 729-736.

Figures/Tables 5

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References 25

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变量	变量含义	1990年	2000年	2016年
X1	建设用地/hm²	375.470	1 004.220	2 352.780
X2	耕地/hm²	4 424.150	4 131.450	3 575.340
X3	林地/hm²	29 043.340	29 178.450	29 218.590
X4	其他用地/hm²	4 756.520	5 061.960	4 161.330
Y1	人口/万人	2.740	4.950	7.715
Y2	农业生产总值/万元	1 364	1 641	2 980
Y3	国际旅游人数/万人	0.580	25.500	75.500
Y4	地区生产总值/万亿元	0.984	9.099	136.900
Y5	工业生产总值/万亿元	0.320	2.351	18.960
Y6	固定资产投资总额/万亿元	0.120	2.707	85.500
Y7	进口额/万亿美元	1.145	6.177	28.300
Y8	出口额/万亿美元	2.350	4.004	4.200

Driving force evolution of land use change in a border trade area of China

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