Resources Science ›› 2018, Vol. 40 ›› Issue (3): 558-566.doi: 10.18402/resci.2018.03.10

• Orginal Article • Previous Articles     Next Articles

Impact of industrial structural change on mineral resource demand

Jinhua CHENG1(), Yongguang ZHU1(), Deyi XU1, Anjian WANG2, Zhe YOU1, Jun SHEN1   

  1. 1. Resources Environmental Economic Research Center, China University of Geosciences, Wuhan 430074, China
    2. Research Center of Strategy of Global Mineral Resources, China Geological Survey, Beijing 100037, China
  • Received:2017-09-01 Revised:2018-02-08 Online:2018-03-10 Published:2018-03-10


China's economy has entered a new normal and industrial organizations are facing major transformation. Consumption of mineral resources will continue to grow and varieties are more diverse, making mineral resource management more complex. How changes in industrial structure affect the demand of mineral resources is an important scientific problem. Two threshold models are constructed here: (1) a Panel threshold regression model of 26 countries was constructed using data for iron ore consumption and industrial structure in 26 countries; and (2) a threshold model between six kinds of metal minerals and industrial structure, including iron ore, aluminum, copper, lead, tin and zinc, was constructed using Chinese data. We found that there are remarkable multiple mechanisms between changes in industrial structure and demands for mineral resources, which has changed the main factors of mineral resource demand in two different mechanisms. With continuous evolution of industrial institutions to high technology industries, the demand for mineral resources has also shifted from traditional mineral resources to rare minerals. China metal resource consumption appears at an inflection point echelon evolution. There are multi threshold effects between bulk mineral resources and the second industry. Some threshold effects between rare minerals and secondary industry has also appeared. China is now in the second stage of mineral resource demand. The threshold between bulk mineral industry and high technology industry has appeared. The threshold between rare metal and high technology industries has not yet arrived.

Key words: industrial structure, mineral resources consumption, high technology industry, threshold effects