Resources Science ›› 2018, Vol. 40 ›› Issue (3): 486-497.doi: 10.18402/resci.2018.03.03

• Orginal Article • Previous Articles     Next Articles

The impact of emergencies on national metal resource security

Xuehong ZHU1,2(), Hongwei ZHANG1,2(), Jianbai HUANG1,2, Liuguo SHAO1,2, Yaoqi GUO2,3   

  1. 1. Business School, Central South University, Changsha 410083, China
    2. Metal Resource Strategic Research Institute, Central South University, Changsha 410083, China
    3. Mathematics and Statistics School, Central South University, Changsha 410083, China
  • Received:2017-08-14 Revised:2017-12-26 Online:2018-03-10 Published:2018-03-10

Abstract:

Complex and unpredictable emergencies impose a significant impact on national metal resource security. Here, we analyzed the influence mechanism of emergencies on national metal resource security based on the pressure-state-response (PSR) model from an unconventional security perspective. The system dynamics model taking copper as an example was carried out to explore the influence degree and conduction path of different types of emergencies on metal resource security. We found that natural disasters, geopolitics, resource nationalism, major mining accidents and environmental pollution have a direct impact on the price of metal resources. When a 20%, 50% and 100% reduction during the period of event occurred in imports occurred due to such emergencies, the copper price rose immediately, compared to the benchmark situation, to the strongest gain of 3. 55%, 10. 00%, and 27. 30% respectively. Prices gradually fell back to baseline and the effects lasted a long time. However, the speculative behavior of financial markets indirectly affected the price through speculative demand. When the speculations result in a 20% and 50% reduction in the amount of positions during the event, copper prices fall immediately to their greatest level of 1. 201% and 3. 150% with rapid rebound to benchmark. On the contrary, if speculation positions increase by 20% and 50%, copper prices immediately rise to the maximum increase of 1. 132% and 2. 716%. Copper prices decline to baseline level rapidly. We conclude by proposing strategic adjustments to deal with emergencies in metal resources to provide a scientific basis for safeguarding national metal resource security.

Key words: emergency, PSR model, system dynamics, influence mechanism, coping strategies