甘肃省河西地区自然-社会系统脆弱性评价

doi:10.18402/resci.2018.02.20

Abstract

Abstract:

Vulnerability is important content and a hot issue in the study of global environmental change and regional sustainable development. Based on vulnerability assessment modeling, contribution of factors modeling and the entropy-right method, we constructed an evaluation system for vulnerability in a natural-social system. Exposure, sensibility, adaptive capacity and vulnerability of each village and town in Hexi area were analyzed. The contribution of each index and feature factors were also analyzed. We found that medium, higher and high vulnerability areas occupied 70.85% of the whole area in Hexi. The vulnerability degree was high and the vulnerability of southern mountain areas was higher than northern areas at lower altitudes. From the perspective of three continental river basins, the highest level of vulnerability appeared in Shule River Basin, and the vulnerability of the Black River Basin took second place, and that of the Shiyang River Basin was the lowest. Regions considering the adaptive capacity degree of natural system, sensibility degree of the social-economic system, sensibility degree of natural system and exposure degree of natural system as the main contribution factor occupied 91.77%, 87.23%, 67.85% and 56.53% of the whole area in Hexi, so reduced the adaptive capacity degree of the natural system, the sensibility degree of the natural system, the sensibility degree of the social-economic system and the exposure degree of the natural system is the key to reducing vulnerability in Hexi. Only by doing this can we improve our living environment.

Key words: vulnerability assessment, natural-social system, scale of villages and towns, main contribution factor, Hexi area

Sue ZHOU, Mingjun ZHANG, Shengjie WANG, Meiping SUN. Assessment of vulnerability in natural-social system in Hexi, Gansu[J].Resources Science, 2018, 40(2): 452-.

Figures/Tables 3

Table 1

Figure 1

Figure 2

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标准层	要素层	指标层	指标类型	熵值（H）	效用值（d）	权重（W）
暴露度	自然暴露度	多年平均气温	–	0.913	0.087	0.038
		多年平均降水量	+	0.956	0.044	0.019
		耕地面积占比	+	0.933	0.067	0.030
	社会经济暴露度	各乡镇GDP	+	0.843	0.157	0.069
		乡镇人口密度	–	0.816	0.184	0.081
敏感性	自然敏感性	冰川体积	+	0.704	0.296	0.131
		森林覆盖率	+	0.773	0.227	0.100
		荒漠面积占比	–	0.884	0.116	0.051
	社会经济敏感性	社会总抚养比	–	0.838	0.162	0.071
		乡镇居民生活人均日用水量	+	0.864	0.136	0.060
		单位GDP用水量	–	0.940	0.060	0.026
		单位工业增加值用水量	+	0.856	0.144	0.064
适应能力	自然适应能力	节水灌溉面积占比	+	0.944	0.056	0.025
		乡镇生态环境用水量	+	0.776	0.224	0.099
	社会经济适应能力	各乡镇农民人均纯收入	+	0.965	0.035	0.015
		第三产业产值比重	+	0.980	0.020	0.009
		粮食产量	+	0.856	0.144	0.064
		九年义务教育在校人数	+	0.993	0.007	0.003
		恩格尔系数	+	0.900	0.100	0.044

Assessment of vulnerability in natural-social system in Hexi, Gansu

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