中国城镇化进程中产业、空间、人口对能源消费的影响分解

doi:10.18402/resci.2018.01.20

Abstract

Abstract:

On the basis of a literature review, we constructed the fusion mechanism of energy consumption in urbanization on the interactive development of industry, space and population, and analyzed factor decomposition of changes in energy consumption from 1998 to 2015 in China, based on the Kaya expansion model of vector form and the Aggregate the Sum of Polynomial Multiplication of LMDI. We found that the pulling effect of urbanization on production energy consumption is much greater than that of households. The transformation and upgrading traditional energy-driven industries and technological progress alleviate the energy pressure. In recent years, apart from household expenditure, other economic units, because of the improvement of extensive “three-high” development model rather than household consumption, are more energy-conserving. The household consumption effect is still the dominant factor in the promotion of indirect energy consumption, the positive contribution of convergence between urban and rural household consumption behavior to the fluctuation of energy consumption strengthens gradually, and, with the expansion of population, has become a constraint of the sustainable development of energy. The spread of low density sprawling space exacerbates energy consumption, except for the negative contribution to the fluctuation of energy consumption by the scale effect of population agglomeration. Under the situation of strengthening of energy restraint of new urbanization, although the structural adjustment and technological progress at the industrial level still have the effect of reduction of energy consumption, more attention should be paid to improvements on the patterns and habits of energy consumption at the population level, and releasing the new kinetic energy of reducing energy consumption by space distribution of resource, and also strive to achieve sharing economy to ease the energy consumption pressure, and accordingly.

Key words: urbanization, industry, space, population, energy consumption, LMDI

Xiang YAN, Changchun CHENG, Yizhen JIA. Effect decomposition of industry, space and population on energy consumption during Chinese urbanization[J].Resources Science, 2018, 40(1): 216-225.

Figures/Tables 6

Figure 1

Figure 2

Table 1

Figure 3

Figure 4

Figure 5

References 37

[1]	刘耀彬. 中国城市化与能源消费关系的动态计量分析[J]. 财经研究, 2007, 33(11): 72-81.
	[Liu Y B.An analysis of dynamic econometric relationship between development of urbanization and growth of energy consumption in China[J]. Journal of Finance and Economics, 2007, 33(11): 72-81. ]
[2]	Wang Q.Effects of urbanisation on energy consumption in China[J]. Energy Policy, 2014, 65(3): 332-339.
[3]	李玲玲, 张耀辉. 收入差距视角下居民消费行为对能源消耗的影响[J]. 经济管理, 2013, (4): 1-10.
	[Li L L, Zhang Y H.The analysis on consumption behavior of residents and the energy consumption in China in view of the income gap[J]. Journal of Economic Management, 2013, (4): 1-10. ]
[4]	张馨, 牛叔文, 赵春升, 等. 中国城市化进程中的居民家庭能源消费及碳排放研究[J]. 中国软科学, 2011, (9): 65-75.
	[Zhang X, Niu S W, Zhao C S, et al. The study on household energy consumption and carbon emissions in China’s urbanization[J]. Journal of China Soft Science, 2011, (9): 65-75. ]
[5]	Normile D.China’s living laboratory in urbanization[J]. Science, 2008, 319(5864): 740-743.
[6]	Bergh V D, Jeroen C J M. Energy conservation more effective with rebound policy[J]. Environmental and Resource Economics, 2011, 48(1): 43-58.
[7]	路正南. 产业结构调整对我国能源消费影响的实证分析[J]. 数量经济技术经济研究, 1999, (12): 53-55.
	[Lu Z N.The empirical analysis on the influence of industrial structure adjustment on China's energy consumption[J]. Journal of Quantitative & Technical Economics, 1999, (12): 53-55. ]
[8]	Jacobsen H K.Energy demand, structural change and trade: a decomposition analysis of the Danish manufacturing industry[J]. Economic Systems Research, 2000, 12(3): 319-343.
[9]	许涤龙, 钟雄, 汤智斌. 产业结构对能源消耗与经济增长的协同影响分析[J]. 经济问题, 2012, (6): 19-24.
	[Xu D L, Zhong X, Tang Z B.The analysis of industrial structure on synergistic effects of energy consumption and economic growth[J]. On Economic Problems, 2012, (6): 19-24. ]
[10]	史丹, 张金隆. 产业结构变动对能源消费的影响[J]. 经济理论与经济管理, 2003, (8): 30-32.
	[Shi D, Zhang J L.The influence of industrial structure change on energy consumption[J]. Economic Theory and Business Management, 2003, (8): 30-32. ]
[11]	魏艳旭, 孙根年, 李静. 基于技术进步的中国能源消耗与经济增长: 前后两个30年的比较[J]. 资源科学, 2011, 33(7): 1338-1345.
	[Wei Y X, Sun G N, Li J.Energy consumption and economic growth in China due to technological progress: a comparison of two phases[J]. Resource Science, 2011, 33(7): 1338-1345. ]
[12]	李廉水, 周勇. 技术进步能提高能源效率吗?基于中国工业部门的实证检验[J]. 管理世界, 2006, (10): 82-89.
	[Li L S, Zhou Y.Can technological advances improve energy efficiency? Empirical test based on China's industrial sector[J]. Management World, 2006, (10): 82-89. ]
[13]	董锋, 谭清美, 周德群, 等. 技术进步对能源效率的影响-基于考虑环境因素的全要素生产率指数和面板计量分析[J]. 科学学与科学技术管理, 2010, 31(6): 53-58.
	[Dong F, Tan Q M, Zhou D Q, et al. The effect of technology progress to energy efficiency: Based on total-factor productivity index including environment factor and panel econometric analysis[J]. Science of Science and Management of S. & T, 2010, 31(6): 53-58. ]
[14]	严翔, 成长春. 长江经济带科技创新能耗的库兹涅茨曲线效应[J]. 南通大学学报(社会科学版), 2017, 33(3): 1-8.
	[Yan X, Cheng C C.The Kuznets Curve effect on energy consumption by science and technology innovation in Yangtze River Economic Zone[J]. Journal of Nantong University(Social Sciences Edition), 2017, 33(3): 1-8. ]
[15]	Newman P G, Kenworthy J R.Cities and Automobile Dependence: An International Sourcebook[M]. VT: Gower Publishing, 1989.
[16]	Parikh J, Shukla V.Urbanization, energy use and greenhouse effects in economic development: Results from a cross-national study of developing countries[J]. Global Environmental Change, 1995, 5(2): 87-103.
[17]	Karathodorou N, Graham D J, Noland R B.Estimating the effect of urban density on fuel demand[J]. Energy Economics, 2010, 32(1): 86-92.
[18]	王元京. 走“空间节约”之路-不同资源配置、能源消耗模式的差异给我们的启示[J]. 经济理论与经济管理, 2006, (12): 16-20.
	[Wang Y J.Take the road of space saving[J]. Economic Theory and Business Management, 2006, (12): 16-20. ]
[19]	Burton E.The compact city: Just or just compact? A preliminary analysis[J]. Urban Studies, 2000, 37(11): 1969-2006.
[20]	顾朝林, 谭纵波, 刘宛, 等. 气候变化、碳排放与低碳城市规划研究进展[J]. 城市规划学刊, 2009, (3): 38-45.
	[Gu C L, Tan Z B, Liu W, et al. A study on climate change, carbon emissions and low-carbon city planning[J]. Urban Planning Forum, 2009, (3): 38-45. ]
[21]	程开明. 城市紧凑度影响能源消耗的理论机制及实证分析[J]. 经济地理, 2011, 31(7): 1107-1112.
	[Cheng K M.Theoretical mechanism and empirical study about the influence of city compactness on energy consumption[J]. Economic Geography, 2011, 31(7): 1107-1112. ]
[22]	Rudlin D, Falk N.Building the 21st Century Home: The Sustainable Urban Neighbourhood [M]. Oxford: Architectural Press, 1999.
[23]	宋元梁, 肖卫东. 中国城镇化发展与农民收入增长关系的动态计量经济分析[J]. 数量经济技术经济研究, 2005, 22(9): 31-40.
	[Song Y L, Xiao W D.An analysis of dynamic econometric relationship between development of urbanization and income growth of rural residents in China[J]. Journal of Quantitative & Technical Economics, 2005, 22(9): 31-40. ]
[24]	王泳璇, 王宪恩. 基于城镇化的居民生活能源消费碳排放门限效应分析[J]. 中国人口·资源与环境, 2016, 26(12): 94-102.
	[Wang Y X, Wang X E.Threshold effect analysis on carbon emissions of household energy consumption based on urbanization[J]. China Population, Resources and Environment, 2016, 26(12): 94-102. ]
[25]	Weber C, Perrels A.Modelling lifestyle effects on energy demand and related emissions[J]. Energy Policy, 2000, 28(8): 549-566.
[26]	李艳梅, 张雷. 中国居民间接生活能源消费的结构分解分析[J]. 资源科学, 2008, 30(6): 890-895.
	[Li Y M, Zhang L.Structural decomposition analysis of China's indirect household energy consumption[J]. Resources Science, 2008, 30(6): 890-895. ]
[27]	Pfaff A S P, Chaudhuri S, Nye H L M. Household production and environmental Kuznets curves-examining the desirability and feasibility of substitution[J]. Environmental and Resource Economics, 2004, 27(2): 187-200.
[28]	何文举, 陈雄超, 卜赛男. 城镇人口规模与能源资源消费关系的实证研究-以湖南省为例[J]. 经济地理, 2013, 33(11): 70-76.
	[He W J, Chen X C, Pu S N.An empirical research on the relations between Unban population scale and energy resource consumption-case in Hunan Province[J]. Economic Geography, 2013, 33(11): 70-76. ]
[29]	张玉周. 中国人口年龄结构变动对能源消费的影响研究-基于省际动态面板数据的GMM分析[J]. 中国人口·资源与环境, 2015, 25(11): 69-74.
	[Zhang Y Z.Research on the effects of changes in the age structure of China’s population to energy consumption: based on the provincial dynamic panel data by GMM[J]. China Population, Resources and Environment, 2015, 25(11): 69-74. ]
[30]	郭文, 孙涛. 人口结构变动对中国能源消费碳排放的影响-基于城镇化和居民消费视角[J]. 数理统计与管理, 2017, 36(2): 295-312.
	[Guo W, Sun T.Effect of population structure change on carbon emission in China: Based on perspectives of urbanization and residents' consumption[J]. Journal of Applied Statistics and Management, 2017, 36(2): 295-312. ]
[31]	Fang W S, Miller S M, Yeh C C.The effect of ESCOs on energy use[J]. Energy Policy, 2012, 51(4): 558-568.
[32]	魏楚. 城镇化会增加居民能源需求吗-基于事实与文献的述评[J]. 经济理论与经济管理, 2017, 36(1): 95-109.
	[Wei C.Will urbanization increase residential energy demand-a literature review[J]. Economic Theory and Business Management, 2017, 36(1): 95-109. ]
[33]	Kaya Y.Impact of Carbon Dioxide Emission on GNP Growth: Interpretation of Proposed Secnarios. Presentation to the Energy and Industry Subgroup[R]. Paris: Response Strategies Working Group, IPCC, 1989.
[34]	Ang B W.Decomposition analysis for policymaking in energy: which is the preferred method?[J]. Energy Policy, 2004, 32(9): 1131-1139.
[35]	李京文, 杨正东. “多项连乘和加总”的因素分解法在能源平衡表中的应用[J]. 数量经济技术经济研究, 2014, (5): 117-132.
	[Li J W, Yang Z D."Aggregate the sum of polynomial multiplication" decomposition in energy balance table[J]. Journal of Quantitative & Technical Economics, 2014, (5): 117-132. ]
[36]	中华人民共和国国家统计局. 中国统计年鉴[M]. 北京: 中国统计出版社, 1998-2015.
	[National Bureau of Statistics of China. China Statistical Yearbook[M]. Beijing: China Statistics Press, 1998-2015. ]
[37]	国家统计局能源统计司. 中国统计年鉴[M]. 北京: 中国统计出版社, 1998-2015.
	[Energy Statistics Division of Chinese National Bureau of statistics. China Energy Statistical Yearbook[M]. Beijing: China Statistics Press, 1998-2015. ]

因子效应	∆TE	∆SE	∆CRE	∆UE	∆HCE	∆PE	∆LPE	∆PSE	∆HDE	∆AE	∆Total
总量/亿tec	-13.10	-2.60	2.14	5.49	33.13	2.25	2.94	0.31	-2.38	2.66	30.83
比例/%	-42.51	-8.45	6.95	17.81	107.46	7.29	9.54	1.00	-7.71	8.61	100.00

Effect decomposition of industry, space and population on energy consumption during Chinese urbanization

RichHTML

PDF (PC)

Like

Knowledge

Cited

Abstract

Cite this article

share this article

Figures/Tables 6

References 37

Related Articles 15

Metrics

Comments

Recommended 0

[1]	WANG Fang, ZHU Mingwen, CHEN Chongwang, XIAO Ying, ZHANG Xuxi. Equity of urban health resources based on walkability and spatial distribution of population: A case study of the central urban area of Guangzhou City [J]. Resources Science, 2021, 43(2): 390-402.
[2]	LIU Jianhua, HUANG Liangchao, ZUO Qiting. Evaluation of harmonious development of economy-population-resource-environment in the lower reaches of the Yellow River [J]. Resources Science, 2021, 43(2): 412-422.
[3]	ZHAO Nana, WANG Zhibao, LI Hongmei. Change of energy consumption pattern and its impact on economic development in China [J]. Resources Science, 2021, 43(1): 122-133.
[4]	MA Dingguo, DAI Xiongzu, YANG Jinfeng, WANG Chuansheng. Resource and environmental carrying capacity and optimal population size for village and town development: Taking Yongfeng County of Jiangxi Province as an example [J]. Resources Science, 2020, 42(7): 1249-1261.
[5]	SUN Di, CUI Baoyu, HUO Mengting. Difference of citizenization willingness and capacity between self-employed and employed migrant agricultural population [J]. Resources Science, 2020, 42(5): 881-893.
[6]	HUANG Li, ZHOU Mi. International ecosystem service research dynamics and regional differences: A bibliometric analysis based on Web of Science data [J]. Resources Science, 2020, 42(4): 607-620.
[7]	LAN Man, LIN Aiwen, JIN Tian, LUO Liting. Quantitative analysis of knowledge maps of natural resources accounting and assessment research in China based on CiteSpace [J]. Resources Science, 2020, 42(4): 621-635.
[8]	LUO Jun, SHI Peiji, ZHANG Xuebin. Spatiotemporal characteristics of population distribution in the upper reaches of the Yellow River：A multi-dimensional approach in the Lanzhou-Xining urban agglomeration [J]. Resources Science, 2020, 42(3): 474-485.
[9]	ZHAI Jun, JIN Diandian, CHEN Yan, LIU Xin, YANG Xu, HOU Peng, XU Yanda. Ecological changes, problems and countermeasures in the High Efficiency Eco-economic Zone of the Yellow River Delta [J]. Resources Science, 2020, 42(3): 517-526.
[10]	WANG Xia, ZHANG Lijun, QIN Yaochen, ZHANG Jingfei. Spatiotemporal changes of carbon emissions in high-carbon manufacturing industry in China and driving factors [J]. Resources Science, 2020, 42(2): 323-333.
[11]	SUN Siao, TANG Qiuhong. Spatiotemporal patterns and driving factors of water resources use in the Yellow River Basin [J]. Resources Science, 2020, 42(12): 2261-2273.
[12]	LI Jiangsu, SUN Wei, YU Jianhui. Change and regional differences of production-living-ecological space in the Yellow River Basin: Based on comparative analysis of resource-based and non-resource-based cities [J]. Resources Science, 2020, 42(12): 2285-2299.
[13]	PENG Fei, FU Ningning, HU Wei, HU Jinlin. Analysis and enlightenment of knowledge map of marine resources research at home and abroad [J]. Resources Science, 2020, 42(11): 2047-2061.
[14]	WANG Wulin, GONG Jiao, WANG Chengjin. Progress and prospect of research on the Arctic Passage based on CiteSpace [J]. Resources Science, 2020, 42(11): 2075-2091.
[15]	ZHAO Jianji, LIU Yan, ZHU Yakun, QIN Shengli, WANG Yanhua, MIAO Changhong. Spatiotemporal differentiation and influencing factors of the coupling and coordinated development of new urbanization and ecological environment in the Yellow River Basin [J]. Resources Science, 2020, 42(1): 159-171.