气候变化下辽西北春玉米生育期需水量研究

doi:10.18402/resci.2018.01.14

Abstract

Abstract:

Crop water requirement is important to irrigation requirement planning and water resources planning. Understanding historical changes and future trends is critical to predicting future crop water use trends and making rational decisions. Using the Penman-Monteith model recommended by the FAO, the water requirement of spring maize across the whole plantation in northwestern Liaoning was calculated. The net water requirement of spring maize at different growth stages was obtained by soil moisture density function under full irrigation conditions. We found that potential evapotranspiration and spatial and temporal variation in water demand indicates that spring maize increased and decreased over the last 50 years. In the past 50 years, the water demand of spring maize in northwestern Liaoning has not decreased over time. The spatial distribution has gradually increased from southeast to northwest. From net irrigation water demand, the average annual net irrigation water requirement of spring maize in northwestern Liaoning was 402.44 mm, and average annual irrigation requirement index was 0.67. From the perspective of net irrigation water demand under future climate change scenarios, domestic or regional resources (A₂) scenarios and regional sustainable development (B₂) scenarios, the 30a growth rate decreased in turn. This study provides a basis for agricultural water use and reasonable irrigation of spring maize planting in the northern Liaoning. It is of great strategic significance to the increasingly prominent contradiction between supply and demand of water in this region.

Key words: climate change, spring maize, water requirement, irrigation water requirement, Northwest Liaoning

Yongqiang CAO, Weijia LI, Boya ZHAO. Water requirements of spring maize in Northwest Liaoning Province under climate change[J].Resources Science, 2018, 40(1): 150-160.

Figures/Tables 11

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References 21

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时间/（月、旬）	辽宁西部	辽宁北部	时间/（月、旬）	辽宁西部	辽宁北部
4月中旬（播种期）	0.36	0.35	7月上旬（拔节期）	0.91	0.93
4月下旬（播种期）	0.46	0.44	7月中旬（拔节期）	1.17	1.14
5月上旬（苗期）	0.47	0.45	7月下旬（抽穗期）	1.21	1.16
5月中旬（苗期）	0.51	0.46	8月上旬（抽穗期）	1.02	1.08
5月下旬（苗期）	0.55	0.48	8月中旬（成熟期）	0.97	0.98
6月上旬（苗期）	0.58	0.51	8月下旬（成熟期）	0.95	0.93
6月中旬（苗期）	0.68	0.62	9月上旬（成熟期）	0.91	0.89
6月下旬（拔节期）	0.80	0.81	9月中旬（成熟期）	0.78	0.79

指标项	成份
指标项	1	2	3	4	5	6	7
降水量	-0.221	0.774	0.488	-0.323	0.089	-0.040	-0.004
平均风速	-0.797	-0.367	0.187	0.257	0.357	0.042	0.008
平均气温	0.961	-0.151	0.181	0.075	0.073	0.069	-0.073
平均相对湿度	-0.123	0.832	0.115	0.509	-0.141	-0.008	-0.003
高程	-0.264	-0.368	0.234	0.314	0.497	-0.380	-0.241
日照时数	-0.385	-0.755	0.449	0.028	-0.279	0.030	0.006
日最高气温	0.890	-0.343	0.166	0.141	0.078	-0.191	0.022
日最低气温	0.968	0.146	0.127	0.010	0.041	0.144	0.059

主成分因子	特征值	贡献率/%	累计贡献率/%
1	3.500	49.999	49.999
2	2.158	30.829	80.828
3	0.564	8.062	88.891
4	0.455	6.505	95.395
5	0.167	2.314	97.594
6	0.079	1.206	98.916
7	0.066	0.950	99.866
8	0.009	0.134	100.000

气象站	播种期（4月中旬— 4月下旬）	苗期（5月上旬— 6月中旬）	拔节期（6月下旬— 7月中旬）	抽穗期（7月下旬— 8月上旬）	成熟期（8月中旬— 9月中旬）	全生育期
彰武	28.20	113.64	102.92	74.32	76.70	395.78
阜新	27.92	110.88	101.96	74.26	97.02	412.04
开原	26.56	103.94	92.82	63.78	85.85	372.95
朝阳	34.62	131.76	103.84	73.56	109.54	453.32
叶柏寿	30.58	116.12	99.20	68.54	107.04	421.48
黑山	29.20	118.70	91.92	60.94	102.96	403.72
锦州	31.30	120.84	95.36	65.50	103.84	416.84
绥中	27.96	109.58	86.56	60.16	100.25	384.51
兴城	26.02	100.24	80.52	56.66	97.90	361.34

气象站	播种期（4月中旬—4月下旬）	苗期（5月上旬—6月中旬）	拔节期（6月下旬—7月中旬）	抽穗期（7月下旬—8月上旬）	成熟期（8月中旬—9月中旬）	全生育期
彰武	0.89	0.85	0.80	0.53	0.60	0.73
阜新	0.89	0.85	0.80	0.52	0.79	0.77
开原	0.86	0.82	0.76	0.52	0.76	0.75
朝阳	0.90	0.86	0.78	0.55	0.83	0.78
叶柏寿	0.90	0.84	0.78	0.53	0.82	0.77
黑山	0.89	0.87	0.80	0.53	0.83	0.78
锦州	0.90	0.86	0.80	0.54	0.79	0.78
绥中	0.89	0.86	0.80	0.54	0.81	0.78
兴城	0.90	0.86	0.80	0.55	0.55	0.73

Water requirements of spring maize in Northwest Liaoning Province under climate change

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	A₂情景			B₂情景
	温度/℃		降水/%	温度/℃	降水/%
2020年	+1.7	+2.5		+1.2	+4.0
2030年	+2.1	+2.8		+1.5	+5.2
2050年	+2.8	+6.0		+2.2	+7.0

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