收入增长与老龄化对城镇居民食物消费水足迹的影响

doi:10.18402/resci.2018.01.10

Abstract

Abstract:

Scientifically using the concept of water footprint will help people understand the complex relationship between human activities and natural resources. Water footprint affects the evaluation and management of water resources. Here, we attempt to establish a relationship between socioeconomic factors and water footprint through food consumption. We point out how socioeconomic factors affect the water demand of food consumption. Based on a week-long diary survey of 2, 023 households from 10 cities in China, we aimed to empirically analyze water footprints behind food consumption and identify influencing factors, with specific attention to the impact of income growth and population aging. We forecast future trends in the water footprint of food consumption in urban China based on different circumstances for income growth and population aging. The results show that the water footprint behind food consumption increases with a decreasing rate as income rises, suggesting a continually growing pressure on water supply until the water footprint reaches a turning point around the year 2027. In contrast to the income effect, China's aging population has a significant negative effect on the water footprint of food consumption. Understanding this nature and making full use of population aging effects will help to find more scientific and dynamic methods to coordinate pressures on water resource. Our results show that food consumed away from home plays a significant role in understanding the water footprint of food consumption, suggesting a potential downward bias without considering this part.

Key words: food consumption, water footprint, income growth, aging

Fei XU, Caiping ZHANG, Junfei BAI. Impact of income growth and aging on the water footprintof food consumption in urban China[J].Resources Science, 2018, 40(1): 104-116.

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References 38

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第一层分组	第二层分组	在所属第一层分组中的消费比重/%	绿水/（m³/t）	蓝水/（m³/t）	灰水/（m³/t）	说明
谷物	大米	-	792	355	310
	小麦粉	-	830	471	315
	其他谷物	-	1 297	19	182
肉类	猪肉	58.3	5 225	414	671	由带骨、不带骨鲜肉及其他肉制品系数按消费量加权平均求得
	牛肉	10.9	12 743	493	396	同上
	羊肉	2.4	5 228	441	13	同上
	禽肉	20.9	2 836	281	854	同上
	内脏	6.8	2 219	152	305	由猪、牛、羊、禽内脏系数按照各类消费比重加权平均求得
	其他肉类	0.7	5 338	378	638
禽蛋	鲜蛋	-	2 211	217	666
禽蛋	禽蛋制品	-	2 457	247	739
水产		-	608			水产系数由0.55的料肉比以及当前72%的养殖占比推算得出
蔬菜	新鲜蔬菜	-	218	4	143
	脱水/腌制蔬菜	-	624	13	409
	其他蔬菜	-	218	4	143
水果	鲜果	-	755	29	287	由各种鲜果系数按消费量加权平均得到
	干果／腌制水果	-	898	23	300
	其他水果	-	797	24	287	鲜果与干果各取50%权重进行调整
乳制品	鲜奶	-	927	145	210
	酸奶	-	1 077	169	244
	其他奶制品	-	4 603	720	1 041	由奶粉及黄油系数按照消费比重求得
豆类及制品	豆腐	-	2 999	293	257
	豆浆／豆汁／豆奶	-	2 576	252	221	样本数据并没有对豆浆与豆奶作区分无法获得居民实际的消费权重,又因二者水足迹系数相差较大,故各取50%权重进行调整
	非蔬菜豆类	-	1 471		617
	豆干/豆皮/腐竹/香干/干丝/素鸡/千张/豆粉	-	4 472	437	383
	豆奶	0.5	4 472	437	383

	变量	变量说明	单位	均值	方差	最小值	最大值
被解释变量	人均消费水足迹	家庭每人每年食物消费水足迹	m³/（人·年）	1 007.09	339.79	177.00	3 050.93
	人均在家消费水足迹	家庭每人每年在家食物消费水足迹	m³/（人·年）	791.06	328.31	0.00	2 518.00
	人均在外消费水足迹	家庭每人每年在外食物消费水足迹	m³/（人·年）	216.03	246.27	0.00	2 124.94
	每千克食物消费水	家庭每千克食物消费水足迹	m³/kg	1.81	0.38	0.88	4.09
解释变量	家庭人均可支配收入	以2010年为基础	元/月	1 804.52	1 142.98	118.04	16 977.93
	家庭规模	家庭总人口	人	2.85	0.89	1.00	7.00
	儿童比重	家庭14岁以下人口比重	%	9.86	0.15	0.00	66.67
	青年人口比重	家庭15到39岁人口比重	%	28.00	0.26	0.00	100.00
	中年人口比重	家庭40到59岁人口比重	%	41.73	0.34	0.00	100.00
	老年人口比重	家庭60岁以上人口比重	%	20.40	0.34	0.00	100.00
	户主性别	1=男性;0=女性	-	0.26	0.44	0.00	1.00
	户主受教育程度	1=学前教育水平;2=小学水平;3=初中水平;4=高中水平;5=职业学校水平;6=大学水平;7=大学以上水平		4.21	1.22	1.00	7.00

样本城市	调查时间	样本家庭/户	常住人口/万	人均可支配收入（以2010年为基础/元）
南京	2009年6—9月	245	821	2 210
成都	2010年6—9月	206	1 417	1 707
西安	2011年6—9月	212	846	1 678
沈阳	2011年6—9月	206	825	1 715
厦门	2011年6—9月	149	381	2 164
哈尔滨	2012年6—9月	212	1 000	1 491
太原	2012年6—9月	202	429	1 491
台州	2012年6—9月	190	603	2 475
南宁	2012年6—9月	197	786	1 730
兰州	2012年6—9月	201	368	1 451

收入/家庭规模	年人均食物消费量/kg			年人均食物消费水足迹/m³			每公斤食物消费水足迹/m³
收入/家庭规模	在家		在外	总计	在家	在外	总计
低收入组	462.19	65.09	527.28	744.29	165.73	910.02	1.74
中低收入组	479.28	75.34	554.62	797.55	184.31	981.85	1.80
中等收入组	492.40	78.94	571.34	819.79	202.62	1 022.41	1.83
中高收入组	494.81	94.52	589.34	823.44	237.46	1 060.90	1.83
高收入组	464.75	120.82	585.57	770.23	289.82	1 060.04	1.85
1人	520.54	90.79	611.32	866.13	233.73	1 099.86	1.83
2人	558.43	69.61	628.03	909.17	174.28	1 083.45	1.76
3人	447.99	104.06	552.06	744.84	257.4	1 002.24	1.84
4人	420.52	70.24	490.76	702.35	171.74	874.09	1.80
5人及以上	412.77	49.73	462.50	695.93	125.99	821.92	1.79
全部样本	464.20	86.45	550.65	769.31	214.44	983.75	1.79

	是否有14岁以下儿童?				是否有60岁以上老人?
	有		没有	p-值	有	没有	p-值
在家	719.08	824.75	0.00		839.65	767.80	0.00
在外	233.93	207.65	0.03		116.58	263.64	0.00
加总	953.01	1 032.40	0.00		956.23	1 031.44	0.00

Impact of income growth and aging on the water footprintof food consumption in urban China

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	人均食物消费水足迹				每千克食物水足迹
	总量（模型1）		在家（模型2）	在外（模型3）	模型4
人均收入对数值	0.143***	0.072**	0.683***		0.047***
	（0.02）	（0.03）	（0.12）		（0.01）
人均收入对数值平方	-0.055***	-0.129***	-0.100		-0.017**
	（0.01）	（0.03）	（0.09）		（0.01）
家庭人口数	-0.081	-0.017	0.081		-0.007
	（0.01）	（0.02）	（0.06）		（0.01）
老年人比重	-0.060*	0.492***	-2.904***		-0.142***
	（0.03）	（0.06）	（0.20）		（0.02）
中年人口比重	-0.049	0.411***	-1.138***		-0.076***
	（0.03）	（0.06）	（0.20）		（0.02）
青年人口比重^a	-	-	-		-
儿童比重	-0.060	0.399***	-0.175		-0.001
	（0.06）	（0.12）	（0.40）		（0.04）
户主性别	0.011	-0.010	0.009		0.017*
	（0.02）	（0.03）	（0.11）		（0.01）
户主受教育水平	0.015**	-0.002	0.156***		0.007*
	（0.01）	（0.01）	（0.04）		（0.00）
省份变量^b	略	略	略		略
常数项	6.865***	6.266***	3.993***		0.652***
	（0.06）	（0.10）	（0.35）		（0.03）
样本量	2 023	2 023	2 023		2 023
R²	0.133	0.085	0.215		0.195

年份	不考虑老龄化方案				考虑老龄化方案
年份	方案1（4%）*		方案2（5%）*	方案3（6%）*	方案4（4%）*	方案5（5%）*	方案6（6%）*
2017	1 238	1 236	1 235		1 236	1 235	1 234
2018	1 284	1 280	1 276		1 282	1 278	1 274
2019	1 326	1 318	1 310		1 324	1 316	1 308
2020	1 364	1 350	1 336		1 361	1 348	1 334
2021	1 397	1 375	1 355		1 394	1 373	1 352
2022	1 424	1 394	1 365		1 421	1 391	1 362
2023	1 447	1 406	1 366		1 443	1 403	1 363
2024	1 463	1 410	1 359		1 459	1 406	1 355
2025	1 473	1 407	1 343		1 469	1 403	1 339
2026	1 478	1 396	1 319		1 473	1 392	1 315
2027	1 475	1 378	1 287		1 470	1 373	1 282
2028	1 467	1 352	1 247		1 462	1 348	1 242
2029	1 452	1 320	1 201		1 446	1 315	1 196
2030	1 431	1 282	1 148		1 425	1 277	1 143
2035	1 246	1 018	831		1 240	1 013	826

年份	收入增长方案下中国城镇居民食物消费水足迹总量预测值/（万亿m³/年）				同时考虑老龄化后居民食物消费水足迹总量预测值变化/（亿m³/年）
年份	方案1		方案2	方案3	方案4	方案5	方案6
2017	0.988	0.987	0.986		-9.7	-9.7	-9.7
2018	1.042	1.039	1.035		-12.4	-12.4	-12.4
2019	1.094	1.087	1.081		-15.4	-15.3	-15.3
2020	1.144	1.132	1.121		-18.6	-18.5	-18.3
2021	1.191	1.173	1.156		-22.1	-21.8	-21.5
2022	1.236	1.209	1.184		-25.7	-25.2	-24.8
2023	1.276	1.240	1.205		-29.6	-28.8	-28.1
2024	1.312	1.264	1.219		-33.5	-32.4	-31.4
2025	1.344	1.283	1.225		-37.6	-36.1	-34.6
2026	1.370	1.294	1.223		-41.8	-39.7	-37.6
2027	1.391	1.299	1.213		-46.0	-43.2	-40.5
2028	1.406	1.296	1.195		-50.2	-46.5	-43.2
2029	1.415	1.287	1.170		-54.3	-49.7	-45.5
2030	1.418	1.270	1.138		-58.3	-52.6	-47.4
2035	1.261	1.030	0.841		-63.2	-52.1	-42.9

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