中国碳排放变化的驱动力效应分析

doi:10.18402/resci.2017.12.06

Abstract

Abstract:

As an important part of economic development,it is essential for carbon emission reduction to clarify factors affecting carbon emission changes in China. Based on input-output analysis （IOA）and structural decomposition analysis （SDA）,we demonstrate detailed insights into how diverse driving factors affect carbon emissions. The results indicate that the total carbon emission is increasing from 5.36 to 15.82 billion tons,and carbon emission intensity is reducing from 2.00 to 0.86 t CO₂/10000 CNY. The driving factors of these carbon emission changes are decomposed into technology,sectoral connection,economic structure,gross economic scale and population. Technology effect always offsets the carbon emission increase. On the contrary,gross economic scale and population have significant positive effects on carbon emissions. It is noteworthy that sectoral connection effects abruptly change from negative to positive because of industrial policy. In China,industrial policies are mainly divided into macro-control policies and industrial self-adjustment policies. Research shows that policy evolution is conducive to carbon emission reduction：before 2002,macro control policies plays a major role in the change in carbon emissions,and the expansion of economic and population scales increase carbon emissions. Technological progress is the major driving force of carbon emission reduction in this period. from 2002 to 2012,industrial self-adjustment policy has the larger impact on carbon emission reduction. Owing to strengthening industry market competition,energy flow and industrial restructuring are promoted. Energy efficiency is improving,and industrial linkage and economic structure play a more important role in reducing carbon emissions. In the future,technological progress is no longer the only driving force in decreasing carbon emissions,and pathways to carbon emission reduction are diversified.

Key words: carbon emission, carbon emission reduction, input-output analysis （IOA）, Structural decomposition analysis （SDA）, driving factors, industrial policy, China

Yanzhi SUN, Lei SHEN, Shuai ZHONG, Litao LIU, Na WU, Linpeng LI, Hanxiao KONG. Driving force analysis of carbon emission changes in China[J].Resources Science, 2017, 39(12): 2265-2274.

Figures/Tables 7

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References 24

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编号	行业	编号	行业
1	农林牧渔业	15	金属制品业
2	煤炭开采和洗选业	16	通用、专用设备制造业
3	石油和天然气开采业	17	交通运输设备制造业
4	金属矿采选业	18	电气机械及器材制造业
5	非金属矿及其他矿采选业	19	通信设备、计算机及其他电子设备制造业
6	食品制造及烟草加工业	20	仪器仪表及文化办公用机械制造业
7	纺织业	21	工艺品及其他制造业
8	纺织服装鞋帽皮革羽绒及其制品业	22	电力、热力的生产和供应业
9	木材加工及家具制造业	23	燃气生产和供应业
10	造纸印刷及文教体育用品制造业	24	水的生产和供应业
11	石油加工、炼焦及核燃料加工业	25	建筑业
12	化学工业	26	交通运输仓储邮电通信业
13	非金属矿物制品业	27	批发和零售贸易餐饮业
14	金属冶炼及压延加工业	28	其他行业

	主要内容	数据用途	数据来源	时间跨度
能源数据	8种能源消耗量	计算行业直接碳排放强度和碳排放量	《中国能源统计年鉴》^[17]	1997—2012年
碳排放系数数据	各类能源碳排放系数	计算各类能源碳排放	见表3
投入产出表	1997年、2002年、2007年和2012年投入产出表	计算行业碳排放并用于分解分析	《中国统计年鉴》^[18]	1997—2012年
价格指数数据	工业产品生产者价格、居民消费价格	将各投入产出表转化为1997年可比价投入产出表	《中国统计年鉴》^[18]	1997—2012年

能源类型	平均低位发热量 /（kJ/kg）	折标准煤系数 /（kgec/kg）	单位热值含碳量 /（tC/TJ）	碳氧化率	CO₂排放系数 /（kgCO₂/kg）
原煤	20 91	0.71	26.40	0.94	1.90
焦炭	28 44	0.97	29.50	0.93	2.86
原油	41 82	1.43	20.10	0.98	3.02
汽油	43 07	1.47	18.90	0.98	2.93
煤油	43 07	1.47	19.50	0.98	3.02
柴油	42 65	1.45	20.20	0.98	3.10
燃料油	41 82	1.43	21.10	0.98	3.17
天然气	38 93 kJ/m³	1.33（kgec/m³）	15.30	0.99	2.16（kgCO₂/m³）

Driving force analysis of carbon emission changes in China

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