Resources Science ›› 2017, Vol. 39 ›› Issue (10): 1858-1870.doi: 10.18402/resci.2017.10.06

• Orginal Article • Previous Articles     Next Articles

Settlement patterns,local government land supply and population flow

Shangui PENG1(), Chen CHEN2, Jian WANG3, Yueyan ZHANG1, Daoping CHENG1()   

  1. 1. School of Business,Shandong Normal University,Ji’nan 250014,China
    2. Land Administration Bureau,Ji’nan Railway Bureau,Ji’nan 250001,China
    3. College of Public Administration,Nanjing Agriculture University,Nanjing 210095,China
  • Received:2017-03-21 Revised:2017-09-13 Online:2017-10-20 Published:2017-10-20


Between irregular and regular settlement patterns,based on theoretical analysis,we built two general equilibrium models for local government,enterprise and residents. By model derivation and numerical simulation,two research hypotheses were put forward. Using panel data for prefecture-level cities in Guangdong and Shandong for 2001 to 2014,we analyzed the empirical impact of land supply from local governments on population flow by threshold regression,under different settlement patterns. We found that under an irregular settlement pattern,the local government land supply is a very important impact factor and has a linearity effect on population inflow between cities. The population inflow will increase when local governments enlarge industrial land supply,and the population inflow will slow or outflow when local governments decrease industrial land supply. Under a regular settlement pattern,local government supply is a relative important impact factor and has an inverted U type relationship with population inflow between cities. The [0,Si*] interval helps draw population inflow while increasing the proportion of the industrial land or decreasing the proportion of residential and commercial land. The [Si*,∞] interval increases the proportion of residential and commercial land and favors population inflow. Based on the above research conclusion,we suggest that local governments use land supply as a tool to guide population inflow and outflow.

Key words: settlement pattern, local government, land supply, population flow, general equilibrium model, Guangdong Province, Shandong Province