居住模式、地方政府土地供给行为与人口流动——以广东省和山东省为例

doi:10.18402/resci.2017.10.06

Abstract

Abstract:

Between irregular and regular settlement patterns,based on theoretical analysis,we built two general equilibrium models for local government,enterprise and residents. By model derivation and numerical simulation,two research hypotheses were put forward. Using panel data for prefecture-level cities in Guangdong and Shandong for 2001 to 2014,we analyzed the empirical impact of land supply from local governments on population flow by threshold regression,under different settlement patterns. We found that under an irregular settlement pattern,the local government land supply is a very important impact factor and has a linearity effect on population inflow between cities. The population inflow will increase when local governments enlarge industrial land supply,and the population inflow will slow or outflow when local governments decrease industrial land supply. Under a regular settlement pattern,local government supply is a relative important impact factor and has an inverted U type relationship with population inflow between cities. The [0,Si*] interval helps draw population inflow while increasing the proportion of the industrial land or decreasing the proportion of residential and commercial land. The [Si*,∞] interval increases the proportion of residential and commercial land and favors population inflow. Based on the above research conclusion,we suggest that local governments use land supply as a tool to guide population inflow and outflow.

Key words: settlement pattern, local government, land supply, population flow, general equilibrium model, Guangdong Province, Shandong Province

Shangui PENG, Chen CHEN, Jian WANG, Yueyan ZHANG, Daoping CHENG. Settlement patterns,local government land supply and population flow[J].Resources Science, 2017, 39(10): 1858-1870.

Figures/Tables 7

Figure 1

Table 1

Figure 2

Table 2

Table 3

The results of regression analysis"

	解释变量	待估系数	标准误	t检验值	VIF
广东省线性模型	$C$	-22.477	4.227	-5.242	—
	$S it - 1$	1.620***	1.159	4.251	1.331
	$k it 1$	0.229*	0.012	-1.925	2.089
	$k it 2$	-0.199	0.044	-1.171	8.758
	$I it$	0.249***	0.147	5.028	1.680
	$Q ˉ it$	0.144***	0.026	5.975	1.430
	$N it$	0.379***	0.014	28.228	6.897
	$R ˉ 2$	0.951	F值	55.672
	D.W.统计值	1.869	P（F）	0.000
山东省单门限模型	$C$	-3 187.351	193.969	-18.364	—
	$S it - 1 (S it - 1 ≤ 0.826)$	4.175***	0.992	4.789	7.802
	$S it - 1 (S it - 1 > 0.826)$	-4.209***	1.057	-4.189	7.491
	$k it 1$	14.116***	1.267	11.076	3.511
	$k it 2$	-1.008	1.403	-0.811	1.285
	$I it$	1.507*	0.795	1.904	1.478
	$Q ˉ it$	14.730	2.608	1.328	7.369
	$N it$	32.859***	33.823	17.936	4.731
	$R ˉ 2$	0.991	F值	78.413
	D.W.统计值	2.104	P（F）	0.000

Table 3

Figure 3

Figure 4

References 39

[1]	傅勇,张晏. 中国式分权与财政支出结构偏向:为增长而竞争的代价[J]. 管理世界,2007,(3):4-12.
	[Fu Y,Zhang Y.Chinese style decentralization and fiscal expenditure structure deviation[J]. Management World,2007,(3):4-12.]
[2]	王玉波,唐莹. 中国土地财政地域差异与转型研究[J]. 中国人口·资源与环境,2013,23(10):151-159.
	[Wang Y B,Tang Y.Discrepancy of land finance in different areas and its transfor-mation in China[J]. China Population,Resources and Environ-ment,2013,23(10):151-159.]
[3]	中华人民共和国中央人民政府. 国家新型城镇化规划(2014-2020年)[EB/OL]. (2014-03-16)[2017-03-21]. .
	[The Central People's Government of the People's Republic of China. Na-tional New-type Urbanization Plan[EB/OL]. (2014-03-16)[2017-03-21]..]
[4]	国务院发展研究中心,世界银行. 中国:推进高效、包容、可持续的城镇化[M]. 北京:中国发展出版社,2014.
	[Development Research Center of the State Council China,World Bank. China:Promoting Efficient,Inclusive and Sustainable Urbanization[M]. Beijing:China Development Press,2014.]
[5]	李强. 影响中国城乡流动人口的推力与拉力因素分析[J]. 中国社会科学,2003,(1):126-131.
	[Li Q.An analysis of push and pull factors in the migration of rural workers in China[J]. China Social Sciences,2003,(1):126-131.]
[6]	段成荣. 影响我国省际人口迁移的个人特征分析-兼论“时间”因素在人口迁移研究中的重要性人口研究[J]. 人口研究,2000,24(4):14-22.
	[Duan C R.Individual level determinants of interprovincial migration in China:on the effects of time sequence in migration studies[J]. Population Research,2000,24(4):14-22.]
[7]	李燕凌,曾福生. 托达罗人口流动模型对社会主义新农村建设的启示-基于湖南省8位“革命前辈”故乡村的实证研究[J]. 湖南社会科学,2006,(5):109-113.
	[Li Y L,Zeng F S.Todaro's model of population flow and its inspiration to the construction of new socialist countryside:based on the empirical study of 8 old revolutionary hometown villages in Hunan[J]. Hunan Social Sciences,2006,(5):109-113.]
[8]	Sang P.A study on the urban Hukou switching intention of migrant workers in China:focused on Beijing,Shanghai and Guangzhou city[J]. Korean-Chinese Social Science Studies,2016,14(1):1533-1536.
[9]	张志伟,胡石清. 我国人口流动的现状及影响因素分析[J]. 安徽农业大学学报(社会科学版),2005,14(6):34-37.
	[Zhang Z W,Hu S Q.The analysis of the people’s floating in China and its influencing factors[J]. Journal of Anhui Agricultural Univer-sity(social science edition),2005,14(6):34-37.]
[10]	Glaeser E L,Shapiro J.Urban growth in the 1990s:is city living back?[J]. Journal of Regional Science,2003,43(1):139-165.
[11]	Glaeser E L,Gyourko J,Saks R.Urban growth and housing supply[J]. Journal of Economic Geography,2006,6(1):71-89.
[12]	Vermeulen W,Ommeren J V.Does land use planning shape regional economies? A simultaneous analysis of housing supply,internal migration and local employment growth in the Nether-lands[J]. Journal of Housing Economics,2009,18(4):294-310.
[13]	Roback J.Wages,rents and the quality of life[J]. The Journal of Political Economics,1982,90(6):1257-1278.
[14]	Yan S,Ge X J,Wu Q.Government intervention in land market and its impacts on land supply and new housing supply:evi-dence from major Chinese markets[J]. Habitat International,2014,44:517-527.
[15]	范剑勇,莫家伟,张吉鹏. 居住模式与中国城镇化-基于土地供给视角的经验研究[J]. 中国社会科学,2015,(4):44-63.
	[Fan J Y,Mo J W,Zhang J P.Housing models and urbanization in China:empirical research from the perspective of land supply[J]. China Social Sciences,2015,(4):44-63.]
[16]	陈治国,李成友,刘志有. 中国城市土地供给政策对住房价格和城市发展影响研究[J]. 现代财经(天津财经大学学报),2015,(9):24-33.
	[Chen Z G,Li C Y,Liu Z Y.Research on the impact of urban land supply policy on housing prices and urban growth in China[J]. Modern Finance and Economics(Journal of Tianjin University of Finance and Economics),2015,(9):24-33.]
[17]	彭山桂,汪应宏,陈晨,等. 山东省建设用地供给结构对人口流动的影响研究[J]. 资源科学,2016,38(1):62-72.
	[Peng S G,Wang Y H,Chen C,et al.The impact of local government con-struction land supply structure on migration in Shandong,China[J]. Resources Science,2016,38(1):62-72.]
[18]	陶然,袁飞,曹广忠. 区域竞争、土地出让与地方财政效应:基于1999-2003年中国地级城市面板数据的分析[J]. 世界经济,2007,(10):15-27.
	[Tao R,Yuan F,Cao G Z.Regional com-petition,land transfer and the effect of local finance:based on panel data of cities in China between 1999 and 2003[J]. World Economics,2007,(10):15-27.]
[19]	陶然,陆曦,苏福兵,等. 地区竞争格局演变下的中国转轨:财政激励和发展模式反思[J]. 经济研究,2009,(7):21-32.
	[Tao R,Lu X,Su F B,et al.China’s transition and development model under evolving regional competition patterns[J]. Eco-nomic Research Journal,2009,(7):21-32.]
[20]	Cai H,Treisman D.Does competition for capital discipline governments? Decentralization,globalization,and public policy[J]. The American Economic Review,2005,95(3):817-30.
[21]	师展. 地方政府土地出让行为及其市场影响研究[D]. 北京:清华大学,2011.
	[Shi Z.Research on the Effects of Local Govern-ments’ Land Leasing Behaviors on the Land and Housing Markets in Chinese Cities[D]. Beijing:Tsinghua University,2011.]
[22]	Zheng S Q,Yu M F,Hong Y L.Demand for urban quality of living in China:evolution in compensating land-rent and wage rate differentials[J]. The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Eco-nomics,2009,38(3):194-213.
[23]	曹春艳,吴群. 财政分权、地方财政支出偏好与城市用地规模扩张-以长三角地区为例[J]. 华东经济管理,2013,27(12):81-85.
	[Cao C Y,Wu Q.Fiscal decentralization,preference of local fiscal expenditure and scale of urban land expansion-based on a case study of Yangtze River Delta[J]. East China Economic Management,2013,27(12):81-85.]
[24]	吴群,李永乐. 财政分权、地方政府竞争与土地财政[J]. 财贸经济,2010,(7):51-59.
	[Wu Q,Li Y L.Fiscal decentralization,government competition and land finance[J]. Finance and Trade Economics,2010,(7):51-59.]
[25]	丰雷,魏丽,蒋妍. 论土地要素对中国经济增长的贡献[J]. 中国土地科学,2008,22(12):4-10.
	[Feng L,Wei L,Jiang Y.Study on the contribution of land element to economic growth in China[J]. China Land Science,2008,22(12):4-10.]
[26]	傅晨. 农民工市民化的制度创新-基于广东省的实证研究[M]. 北京:中国经济出版社,2013.
	[Fu C.System Innovation of Citi-zenization of Peasant-Workers:The Evidence from Guangdong Province[M]. Beijing:China Economic Press,2013.]
[27]	山东省住房和城乡建设厅,山东省统计局. 山东省城镇化发展报告(2015)[M]. 济南:黄河出版社,2015.
	[ Housing and Urban-Rural Development Department of Shandong Province,Shandong Statistical Bureau. Urbanization Development Report of Shandong Province(2015)[M]. Ji’nan:The Yellow River Press,2015.]
[28]	Hansen B E.Sample splitting and threshold estimation[J]. Eco-nometrics,2000,68(3):575-603.
[29]	Chan K S.Consistency and limiting distribution of the least squares estimator of a threshold autoregressive model[J]. The Annals of Statistics,1993,21(1):520-533.
[30]	中华人民共和国住房和城乡建设部. 中国城市建设统计年鉴(2002-2015)[M]. 北京:中国计划出版社,2002-2015.
	[Ministry of Housing and Urban- Rural Development of the PRC. China Urban Construction Statistics Yearbook(2002-2015)[M]. Bei-jing:China Planning Press,2002-2015.]
[31]	山东省住房和城乡建设厅. 山东省城市建设统计年报(2002-2015)[M]. 北京:中国建筑工业出版社,2002-2015.
	[Housing and Urban-Rural Development Department of Shandong Province. Shandong Provincial Urban Construction Statistics Annual Report(2002-2015)[M]. Beijing:China Building Industry Press,2002-2015.]
[32]	广东省统计局. 广东省统计年鉴(2002-2015)[M]. 北京:中国统计出版社,2002-2015.
	[Bureau of Statistics of Guangdong Province. Statistical Yearbook of Guangdong Province(2002-2015)[M]. Beijing:China Statistics Press,2002-2015.]
[33]	山东省统计局. 山东省统计年鉴(2002-2015)[M]. 北京:中国统计出版社,2002-2015.
	[Bureau of Statistics of Shandong Province. Statistical Yearbook of Shandong Province(2002-2015)[M]. Beijing:China Statistics Press,2002-2015.]
[34]	中国银行. 中国银行外汇牌价[EB/OL].(2016-03)[2017-03-15]. .
	[Bank of China. Foreign Exchange Rate of Bank of China [EB/OL].(2016-03)[2017-03-15]. .]
[35]	中国气象科学数据共享服务网. 中国地面气候资料日值数据集(V3.0)[EB/OL]. (2012-08-14)[2017-03-15]. .
	[China Meteorological Science Data Sharing Service Net-work. China Ground Climate Data Daily Data Set(V3.0)[EB/OL]. (2012-08-14)[2017-03-15]. .]
[36]	于涛方. 中国城市人口流动增长的空间类型及影响因素[J]. 中国人口科学,2012,(4):47-58.
	[Yu T F.Spatial-temporal fea-tures and influential factors of the China urban floating popul-ation growth[J]. Chinese Journal of Population Science,2012,(4):47-58.]
[37]	余珮,孙永平. 集聚效应对跨国公司在华区位选择的影响[J]. 经济研究,2011,(1):71-82.
	[Yu P,Sun Y P.The impacts of agglomeration on MNE’s location choice in China[J]. Economic Research Journal,2011,(1):71-82.]
[38]	Hansen B E.Threshold effects in non-dynamic panels:esti-mation,testing,and inference[J]. Econometrics,1999,93(2):345-368.
[39]	余泳泽. FDI技术外溢是否存在“门槛条件”-来自我国高技术产业的面板门限回归分析[J]. 数量经济技术经济研究,2012,(8):49-63.
	[Yu Y Z.Is there FDI a “threshold condition” in technology spillover[J]. The Journal of Quantitative and Technical Economics,2012,(8):49-63.]

模型假设		广东省模型			山东省模型
原假设	备选假设	F值	5%临界值	P值	F值	5%临界值	P值
（1）线性模型	单门限模型	19.109	51.813	0.677	76.637	58.597	0.019
（2）单门限模型	双门限模型	7.775	44.462	0.847	15.582	32.933	0.569
（3）双门限模型	三门限模型	15.128	32.171	0.588	6.614	30.158	0.705

Settlement patterns,local government land supply and population flow

RichHTML

PDF (PC)

Like

Knowledge

Abstract

Cite this article

share this article

Figures/Tables 7

References 39

Related Articles 15

Metrics

Comments

Recommended 0

[1]	PENG Shangui, SUN Hao, WANG Jian, WU Qun. Officials’ individual effect on local government land transfer behavior [J]. Resources Science, 2021, 43(1): 134-147.
[2]	LI Zihao, YUAN Bingbing. Environmental policy mechanism of local governments in the treatment of haze pollution：Policy tools, spatial correlations and threshold effects [J]. Resources Science, 2021, 43(1): 40-56.
[3]	YANG Yang, LI Erling. A theoretical framework and empirical analysis of the formation mechanism of green agricultural industry cluster：A case study of the Shouguang vegetable industry cluster in Shandong Province [J]. Resources Science, 2021, 43(1): 69-81.
[4]	TANG Yudi, ZHU Daolin, CHENG Jian, Li Yaoyao, SONG Yang. Impact of differential pricing strategy of land supply on the upgrading of industrial structure:A study based on the empirical analysis of 277 cities in China [J]. Resources Science, 2020, 42(3): 548-557.
[5]	Yanbo QU, Shuwen WEI, Ran SHANG, Jie ZHENG. Spatial morphology of rural settlements based on site and functional characteristics [J]. Resources Science, 2019, 41(6): 1035-1047.
[6]	CAO Hui, ZHAO Kai. Farmland scale and farmers’ pro-environmental behavior：Verification of the inverted U hypothesis [J]. Resources Science, 2019, 41(4): 740-752.
[7]	Xun WU, Jie WANG. Fiscal decentralization, environmental protection expenditure and haze pollution [J]. Resources Science, 2018, 40(4): 851-861.
[8]	Xueqi WANG, Wei ZOU, Gaoli ZHU, Tieyi CAO. The impact of local government-dominated farmland transfer on farmer’s transfer scale and grain yield in five cities in Jiangsu [J]. Resources Science, 2018, 40(2): 326-334.
[9]	Wen WEN, Na CHE, Dingyang ZHOU, Guanghui JIANG. The interaction between industrial land supply and industrial transformation in Beijing [J]. Resources Science, 2017, 39(9): 1702-1711.
[10]	Shiyong YOU, Zhongyuan LIN, Zhaozhou HAN. Spatial-temporal characteristics and growth mechanism of urban tourism efficiency in Guangdong Province [J]. Resources Science, 2017, 39(8): 1545-1559.
[11]	Yanbo QU, Yong ZHANG, Huiyan LI, Yu GAO. Evaluation of construction land intensive use and obstacle control based on Five-Variables Collaboration Model [J]. Resources Science, 2017, 39(6): 1013-1025.
[12]	Kaisheng LONG, Wei DU. Differences in mechanisms of agricultural land conversion permission between central and local governments in China [J]. Resources Science, 2017, 39(2): 188-197.
[13]	PENG Shangui,WANG Yinghong,CHEN Chen,WANG Jian,LEI Gang,WU Xianhua. Rationality evaluation and driving force of industrial land expansion in Shandong Province [J]. Resources Science, 2016, 38(2): 228-238.
[14]	PENG Shangui,WANG Yinghong,CHEN Chen,WANG Jian,LEI Gang,CHENG Daoping. The impact of local government construction land supply structure on migration in Shandong,China [J]. Resources Science, 2016, 38(1): 62-72.
[15]	YANG Chuanqiang,LI Shimei. Carbon storage of arboreal forests in 2012 in Shandong Province,China [J]. Resources Science, 2015, 37(8): 1661-1667.