Resources Science ›› 2017, Vol. 39 ›› Issue (9): 1739-1752.doi: 10.18402/resci.2017.09.12

• Orginal Article • Previous Articles     Next Articles

Multi-scenario land use change simulation in Caidian using CLUE-S based on Tietenberg Modeling

Bin LI(), Yueyan LIU(), Bin ZHANG, Jincheng HUANG, Xiaoyu GUO   

  1. School of Public Management,China University of Geosciences (Wuhan),Wuhan 430074,China
  • Received:2016-12-23 Revised:2017-05-05 Online:2017-09-20 Published:2017-09-20

Abstract:

A comparative study of multi-scenario simulation about land use change is an important basis for clarifying the characteristics of different land-use change scenarios , and it can provide multi-decision support for land use planning and policy formulation. Based on the analysis of the transfer of various land types, this paper follows the principle of natural growth and maximum benefit, simulates the future land use change in different situation by combining the CLUE-S model with Markov model and Tietenberg model, then analyzes the spatial-temporal characteristics and land benefits of land use change in different situations. The results show as follows. Under different scenarios,the structure of urban and residential land and mining land sources is obviously different. In scenario Ⅰ,the increase of urban and residential land and mining land mainly comes from cultivated land and water area from 2010 to 2019. In scenario Ⅱ,the increase of urban and residential land and mining land is mainly from cultivated land. From the view of landscape structure and stability,the cultivated land, urban and residential land and mining lands changed significantly under the two scenarios. The cultivated land presented a change principle of "stability to instability and then to stability" under two scenarios. The landscape stability of urban and residential land and mining lands was higher. The newly generated urban and residential land and mining land's plots have the small area, large quantity characteristics. In different scenarios,the expansion of the urban and residential land and mining land is different. In Scenario Ⅰ,urban and residential and mining lands have been expanding rapidly which is mainly around the core urban area and the surrounding areas. In scenario Ⅱ,urban and residential and mining lands have the characteristics of more rapid expansion and more uniform layout. It encourages the rational urban land to expand in an orderly way. From the perspective of land benefits, the land acquisition income in scenario Ⅱ is higher than that in scenario Ⅰunder the same amount use of land.

Key words: land use change, scenario simulation and prediction, Tietenberg model, CLUE- S model, landscape pattern, Wuhan City