中国新四化对能源强度的影响

doi:10.18402/resci.2017.08.02

Abstract

Abstract:

Establishing a new path of development in order to realize four modernizations （urbanization,industrialization,informatization and agricultural modernization）implies energy-saving. Simple indices such as urbanization rate or the fraction of industrial added value in GDP have been the focus of previous research. Simple construction of the indices cannot reflect new pattern development of the four modernizations. The implication of the new-pattern means other factors,such as energy consumption,environmental disruption and conservation need to be considered. This study investigated the effects of new pattern development of the four modernizations on energy intensity in order to assess the regional development of China,employing provincial level data from 2011 to 2014. First,we constructed four new type indices using principal component analysis and then presented the distribution of the indices among 30 provinces of China. The results show that the development of the four modernizations basically coincides with the economic development of China. Then,we use panel data model to estimate the effect of four new type indices on energy intensity. The results show that the development of new-type urbanization,informatization and agricultural modernization significantly improve energy intensity （i.e. decrease the energy consumption per production）. However,we show that the impact of new-type industrialization on energy intensity is minor. In addition,the marginal contribution of the new-type index has a decreasing effect on energy intensity. Specifically,improving one facet of the four modernizations will have minor effect on energy intensity under high-development of the other three dimensions of modernization. These results indicate that the effect of modernization on energy intensity will be convergent at some point. Therefore,it is very important to decrease China's energy intensity by improving regional resource allocation efficiency and the new pattern four modernizations of underdeveloped provinces.

Key words: new-pattern urbanization, new-pattern industrialization, informatization, agricultural modernization, energy intensity, system generalized method of moments

Biao LI, Changxu SONG, Jia WU, Bo WU. Influence of development of China's ‘four modernizations’ on energy intensity[J].Resources Science, 2017, 39(8): 1444-1456.

Figures/Tables 5

Table 1

Table 2

Figure 1

Table 3

Table 4

References 44

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变量名称	变量定义	平均值	标准差	最小值	最大值	样本数
能源强度（y）	y=ln（基期为2011年的单位GDP能耗）	-0.226	0.424	-1.086	0.719	120
人均GDP（lrjgdp）	lrjgdp= ln（基期为2011年的实际人均GDP）	11.456	0.108	11.310	11.658	120
资均能耗（lek）	lek=ln（能耗总量/基期为2011年的固定资产投资）	4.729	0.368	3.993	5.570	120
劳均能耗（lel）	lel=ln（能耗总量/年末就业人员总量）	1.748	0.467	0.942	2.719	120
新型城镇化水平（lurb）	lurb=ln（新型城镇化指数）	2.296	0.039	2.240	2.390	120
新型工业化水平（lind）	lind=ln（新型工业化指数）	2.306	0.060	2.207	2.447	120
信息化水平（linf）	linf=ln（信息化指数）	2.375	0.011	2.361	2.414	120
农业现代化水平（lagr）	lagr=ln（农业现代化指数）	2.335	0.034	2.268	2.415	120

类别	主成分	2011年		2012年		2013年		2014年
类别	主成分	特征根	权重	特征根	权重	特征根	权重	特征根	权重
lurb	第一主成分	3.903	0.354	3.696	0.341	3.450	0.317	3.432	0.325
	第二主成分	3.050	0.277	2.904	0.268	3.009	0.277	2.823	0.267
	第三主成分	2.132	0.193	2.252	0.208	2.392	0.220	2.391	0.226
	第四主成分	1.944	0.176	1.985	0.183	2.028	0.186	1.920	0.182
lind	第一主成分	4.946	0.477	4.324	0.443	4.930	0.468	4.426	0.414
	第二主成分	3.370	0.325	3.640	0.373	3.502	0.333	4.238	0.397
	第三主成分	2.060	0.199	1.796	0.184	2.093	0.199	2.020	0.189
lagr	第一主成分	4.394	0.512	4.490	0.520	4.291	0.505	4.617	0.535
	第二主成分	1.643	0.191	1.730	0.200	1.686	0.199	1.599	0.185
	第三主成分	1.454	0.169	1.346	0.156	1.308	0.154	1.279	0.148
	第四主成分	1.098	0.128	1.076	0.125	1.205	0.142	1.128	0.131

变量	POLS				SYS-GMM
变量	回归1	回归2	回归3	回归4	回归5	回归6	回归7	回归8
lrjgdp	0.898***	0.142	0.305**	0.242*	-2.144*	0.059	1.834***	0.012
	（0.327）	（0.161）	（0.130）	（0.123）	（1.116）	（0.404）	（0.357）	（0.378）
lel	0.052	0.252***	0.326***	0.358***	0.337***	0.024	0.071***	0.236***
	（0.085）	（0.041）	（0.031）	（0.030）	（0.094）	（0.028）	（0.029）	（0.026）
lek	0.851***	0.389***	0.425***	0.337***	0.727***	0.399***	0.597***	0.361***
	（0.124）	（0.062）	（0.047）	（0.049）	（0.107）	（0.042）	（0.049）	（0.033）
lurb		-5.675***	（0.368）	-19.514***		-2.220***	-0.596*	-19.224***
		（0.510）	（0.635）	（4.986）		（0.420）	（0.354）	（5.807）
lind		-1.352***	-1.093***	-20.931***		-1.074***	-0.805***	-18.934***
		（0.328）	（0.239）	（5.133）		（0.242）	（0.184）	（5.643）
linf			-16.333***	-39.415***			-9.837***	-31.287***
			（2.036）	（6.268）			（1.281）	（6.186）
lagr			-2.351***	-22.138***			-0.827	-19.932***
			（0.479）	（5.135）			（0.556）	（6.228）
luiia				1.541***				1.444***
				（0.398）				（0.450）
y（-1）					0.533***	0.537***	0.297***	0.270***
					（0.138）	（0.041）	（0.037）	（0.052）
常数项	-14.635***	15.265***	41.341***	187.841***	-11.778***	3.441**	17.083***	161.310***
常数项	（4.053）	（2.412）	（3.409）	（38.007）	（2.960）	（1.635）	（3.480）	（42.198）
样本数	120	120	120	120	90	90	90	90
IV过度识别检验					0.029	0.178	0.738	0.951

弹性系数		1%	5%	10%	25%	50%	75%	90%	95%	99%
ξ_lurb	lind	-1.512	-1.397	-1.338	-1.174	-0.756	-0.467	-0.050	0.192	0.318
	linf	-0.542	-0.531	-0.519	-0.502	-0.475	-0.414	-0.333	-0.239	-0.155
	lagr	-1.272	-1.153	-1.074	-0.948	-0.837	-0.560	-0.362	-0.307	-0.188
ξ_lind	lurb	-0.990	-0.944	-0.901	-0.786	-0.650	-0.312	-0.057	0.099	0.189
	linf	-0.646	-0.636	-0.624	-0.607	-0.580	-0.521	-0.442	-0.350	-0.268
	lagr	-1.060	-0.942	-0.863	-0.737	-0.627	-0.351	-0.154	-0.099	-0.019
ξ_linf	lurb	-13.864	-13.820	-13.778	-13.666	-13.534	-13.206	-12.959	-12.807	-12.720
	lind	-14.164	-14.053	-13.995	-13.838	-13.434	-13.154	-12.751	-12.517	-12.395
	Lagr	-13.932	-13.817	-13.741	-13.619	-13.512	-13.244	-13.053	-12.999	-12.885
ξ_lagr	lurb	-2.211	-2.166	-2.123	-2.009	-1.875	-1.542	-1.290	-1.136	-1.047
	lind	-2.516	-2.403	-2.344	-2.184	-1.773	-1.488	-1.079	-0.841	-0.716
	linf	-1.871	-1.861	-1.850	-1.833	-1.806	-1.747	-1.669	-1.579	-1.498

Influence of development of China's ‘four modernizations’ on energy intensity

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