Resources Science ›› 2017, Vol. 39 ›› Issue (6): 1212-1223.doi: 10.18402/resci.2017.06.20

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Sensitivity analyses of industrial economic output to weather variability in Beijing

Jianfeng SUN1(), Ji WANG2, Guimei HE3, Zhibo CHEN1, Jianxin WANG1()   

  1. 1. School of Information,Beijing Forestry University,Beijing 100083,China
    2. Climate Center,Beijing Meteorological Bureau,Beijing 100089,China
    3. Beijing Research Center for Climate Change,Beijing 100031,China
  • Received:2016-08-07 Revised:2017-04-01 Online:2017-06-20 Published:2017-06-20


Based on 12 years(2002-2013)of economic data and historical weather observations,we analyzed the sensitivity of the industry economy to changes in meteorological factors. By improving an econometric model,Cobb-Douglas(C-D) production function,a quantitative causal relationship is established between meteorological factors and industry economy. Ridge regression modeling was employed to analyze meteorological factors and the industry economy of Beijing. Sensitivity ranking of Beijing economic industry was obtained,three among which are hypersensitive:construction industry,wholesale and retail trade,and financial industry. Agriculture is the least sensitive. The sensitivity ranking,from highest to lowest was:construction industry (0.499 5),wholesale and retail trade(0.417 6),financial industry(0.293 3),transportation,warehousing and postal services(0.280 6),industry(0.279 9),accommodation and catering industry(0.271 0),health and social security and welfare(0.269 1),cultural and sports and entertainment industry(0.260 7),and agriculture(0.253 7). Sensitivity analysis is helpful to the government of Beijing when conducting the industrial restructuring and optimization of resource patterns. This research indicates ridge regression is more in keeping with local economic development in Beijing.

Key words: econometric model, meteorological factors, sensitive industries, ridge regression, Beijing City