Resources Science ›› 2017, Vol. 39 ›› Issue (6): 1071-1083.doi: 10.18402/resci.2017.06.08

• Orginal Article • Previous Articles     Next Articles

Dynamic relations among oil production and trade and economic growth in oil producing countries in the Belt and Road

Hanxiao KONG1,2(), Lei SHEN1,2, Shuai ZHONG1()   

  1. 1. Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100101,China
    2. University of Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100049,China
  • Received:2017-02-10 Revised:2017-03-05 Online:2017-06-20 Published:2017-06-20

Abstract:

With the advance of the Belt and Road,trade contact between countries along the line and China has become increasingly closed. Oil resources are a crucial strategy energy is particularly important in the regional cooperation. Based on the principle of mutual benefit,in order to reveal action mechanism among economic growth and oil supply and demand,we collected Gross Domestic Product data,oil production data and oil trade data from the Belt and Road from 2000 to 2015 and applied the granger causality test,vector autoregressive modeling and impulse response to look at relationships between economic growth,oil production and oil trade. The results show that there are three kinds of dynamic relationships: circular causality chain,where a recurrent changing relationship is found from three variables;reciprocal causation,where one or two alternate changing relationships are found from two of three variables;and one-way causation,where only one successive changing relationship is found from two of three variables. Combined with the Chinese situation and the Impulse Response Function,we propose a differentiation trade cooperation strategy based on oil trade cooperation and talent technology output in order to contribute to strengthen trade cooperation between Chinese and oil producing countries in the Belt and Road. Strengthening the Economic Corridor of Central Asia and West Asia and the New Asia Europe Economic Corridor should be done via a priority cooperation strategy. This will help relieve pressure on China’s oil supply and promote the Belt and Road Initiative.

Key words: the Belt and Road, oil trade and production, economic growth, granger causality test, impulse response function