南京市土地资源安全SD法评价研究

doi:10.18402/resci.2017.05.05

Abstract

Abstract:

Land resource security is an important part of national and regional security. Taking Nanjing as our research focus,a regional land resource security evaluation model structure was designed in accordance with Pressure-State-Response（PSR）. Based on system dynamics,land resource security points for three subsystems （food security,land economic security,land ecological security）and the relationship between regional social economy and the ecological environment were analyzed and simulated. The model can fully reveal the land resource system stability and security and continuity. Through the establishment of regional land resource security evaluation of the system flow chart,SD dynamic simulation analysis and evaluation were conducted. Fifteen kinds of schemes were designed,and the optimal scheme of land resource security strategy development was obtained through SD simulation. Vensim PLE was used for adaption and consistency checking for the established model. Option 3,6,2 and 9 were selected as the optimization mode in Nanjing,and Option 3 is optimal. The SD simulation model constructed here is a set of social,economic,environmental,external systems and internal structures as an integrated subsystem of dynamic analysis modeling,and the model is able to clearly express the entire network of land resource security system. This model will help regional land resource security evaluation,and in particular comparative study using a time dimension.

Key words: system dynamics, land resources security evaluation, index system, system flow diagram, Nanjing City

Hui CHEN, Guanghui FU, Youzhao LIU, Pengyu TAI. Regional land resource security evaluation based on system dynamics in Nanjing City[J].Resources Science, 2017, 39(5): 846-859.

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References 30

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初始值	增长率
GDP初始值	GDP增长率
总人口初始值	人口增长率
粮食作物播种面积初始值	粮食作物播种面积增长率
粮食单产初始值	粮食单产增长率
耕地面积初始值	耕地面积减少率（建设占用）
建设用地面积初始值	牧草地面积初始值
园地面积初始值	园地面积减少率
林地面积初始值	林地面积减少率
水域面积初始值	水域面积减少率
未利用土地面积初始值	未利用土地面积减少率
土地整治投资额初始值	土地整治投资增长率

服务功能	耕地	园地	林地	草地	水域	建设用地	未利用土地	小计
气体调节	1 528.15	6 571.02	10 697.02	2 445.03	0.00	0.00	0.00	21 241.22
气候调节	2 720.10	5 501.32	8 251.98	2 750.66	1 405.89	0.00	0.00	20 629.96
水源涵养	1 833.77	6 112.58	9 780.13	2 445.03	62 287.19	-9 760.08	91.69	72 790.31
土壤形成与保护	4 462.18	8 954.93	11 919.53	5 959.77	30.56	0.00	61.13	31 388.10
废物处理	5 012.32	4 003.74	4 003.74	4 003.74	55 563.35	-1 633.08	30.56	70 984.37
生物多样性产生与维持	2 169.97	6 662.71	9 963.51	3 331.36	7 610.16	0.00	1 039.14	30 776.84
食物生产	3 056.29	611.26	305.63	916.89	305.63	0.00	30.56	5 226.26
原材料	305.63	4 064.87	7 946.35	152.81	30.56	0.00	0.00	12 500.23
娱乐文化	30.56	2 017.15	3 912.05	122.25	13 264.30	0.00	30.56	19 376.88
合计	21 118.96	44 499.58	66 779.94	22 127.54	140 497.65	-11 393.16	1 283.64	284 914.16

目标层（E）	准则层（R）	指标层（G）
区域土地	粮食安全保障（R₁）	粮食作物播种面积（G₁₁）
资源安全		粮食单产（G₁₂）
		人均粮食占有量（G₁₃）
		耕地面积（G₁₄）
		人均耕地面积（G₁₅）
	土地经济安全（R₂）	GDP（G₂₁）
		总人口（G₂₂）
		建设用地面积（G₂₃）
	土地生态安全（R₃）	生态用地面积（G₃₁）
		土地生态系统服务价值（G₃₂）

	设定值		计算值
	GDP 增长率	人口增长率	粮食作物播种面积增长率	粮食单产增长率	建设占用耕地面积减少率	土地整治投资增长率	生态用地
	GDP 增长率	人口增长率	粮食作物播种面积增长率	粮食单产增长率	建设占用耕地面积减少率	土地整治投资增长率	园地面积减少率	林地面积减少率	水域面积减少率	未利用土地面积减少率
方案1	10	3.00	-1.22	1.52	0.74	0.030	5.53	1.99	-0.06	3.30
方案2	10	1.26	-0.78	2.12	0.57	0.032	3.73	1.13	0.18	2.21
方案3	10	0.33	-0.54	2.45	0.48	0.033	2.77	0.67	0.30	1.63
方案4	9	3.00	-1.44	1.28	0.73	0.031	5.54	1.99	-0.06	3.24
方案5	9	1.26	-1.00	1.88	0.56	0.032	3.74	1.13	0.18	2.16
方案6	9	0.33	-0.76	2.21	0.46	0.033	2.77	0.67	0.31	1.58
方案7	8	3.00	-1.66	1.04	0.72	0.031	5.54	1.98	-0.05	3.19
方案8	8	1.26	-1.21	1.64	0.54	0.032	3.74	1.13	0.18	2.10
方案9	8	0.33	-0.98	1.97	0.45	0.033	2.78	0.67	0.31	1.52
方案10	7	3.00	-1.88	0.80	0.70	0.031	5.54	1.98	0.05	3.13
方案11	7	1.26	-1.43	1.40	0.53	0.033	3.74	1.12	0.19	2.04
方案12	7	0.33	-1.19	1.73	0.44	0.034	2.78	0.67	0.31	1.46
方案13	6	3.00	-2.09	0.56	0.69	0.032	5.55	1.98	0.04	3.07
方案14	6	1.26	-1.65	1.17	0.52	0.033	3.75	1.12	0.19	1.99
方案15	6	0.33	-1.41	1.49	0.42	0.034	2.78	0.66	0.32	1.41

	粮食作物播种面积 /万hm²	粮食单产 /（kg/hm²）	人均粮食占有量 /（kg/人）	耕地面积 /（万hm²）	人均耕地面积 /（hm²/人）	GDP /亿元	总人口 /万人	建设用地面积 /万hm²	生态用地面积 /万hm²	土地生态系统服务价值/亿元	土地生态系统服务价值底线/亿元
方案1	13.72	8 621	104.00	22.98	0.020	25 167	1137.3	22.58	57.31	130.91	141.13
方案2	14.42	9 205	140.70	23.43	0.025	25 167	942.94	21.47	57.33	164.87	131.38
方案3	14.80	9 532	165.60	23.68	0.028	25 167	851.93	20.84	57.34	181.21	122.69
方案4	13.39	8 400	98.90	23.01	0.020	22 761	1137.3	22.55	57.31	178.86	202.76
方案5	14.07	8 971	133.90	23.47	0.025	22 761	942.94	21.43	57.33	160.12	134.07
方案6	14.45	9 290	157.60	23.71	0.028	22 761	851.93	20.80	57.34	176.10	125.28
方案7	13.07	8 184	94.10	23.05	0.020	20 567	1137.3	22.51	57.31	173.76	207.03
方案8	13.74	8 741	127.30	23.50	0.025	20 567	942.94	21.40	57.33	155.47	136.93
方案9	14.10	9 053	149.90	23.74	0.028	20 567	851.93	20.76	57.34	171.07	127.96
方案10	12.76	7 973	89.40	23.08	0.020	18 566	1137.3	22.48	57.31	168.78	211.67
方案11	13.41	8 518	121.10	23.53	0.025	18 566	942.94	21.36	57.33	150.93	139.74
方案12	13.77	8 822	142.60	23.77	0.028	18 566	851.93	20.72	57.33	166.21	130.68
方案13	12.45	7 767	85.00	23.11	0.020	16 744	1137.3	22.44	57.31	163.91	216.21
方案14	13.08	8 299	115.20	23.56	0.025	16 744	942.94	21.32	57.33	146.49	142.58
方案15	13.44	8 597	135.60	23.81	0.028	16 744	851.93	20.69	57.34	161.44	133.48

Regional land resource security evaluation based on system dynamics in Nanjing City

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	粮食作物播种面积	粮食单产	人均粮食占有量	耕地面积	人均耕地面积	GDP	总人口	建设用地面积	生态用地面积	土地生态系统服务价值
方案2	0.974	0.966	0.850	0.984	0.892	1.000	1.000	1.000	1.000	0.910
方案3	1.000	1.000	1.000	0.995	0.996	1.000	0.903	0.970	1.000	1.000
方案5	0.951	0.941	0.809	0.986	0.892	0.904	1.000	0.998	1.000	0.884
方案6	0.976	0.975	0.952	0.996	0.996	0.904	0.903	0.969	1.000	0.972
方案8	0.928	0.917	0.769	0.987	0.892	0.817	1.000	0.997	1.000	0.858
方案9	0.953	0.950	0.905	0.997	1.000	0.817	0.903	0.967	1.000	0.944
方案11	0.906	0.894	0.731	0.988	0.896	0.738	1.000	0.995	1.000	0.833
方案12	0.930	0.926	0.861	0.999	1.000	0.738	0.903	0.965	1.000	0.917
方案15	0.908	0.902	0.819	1.000	1.000	0.665	0.903	0.963	1.000	0.891

目标层（E）	准则层（R）	指标层（G）	权重
区域土地资源安全	粮食安全保障（R₁）	粮食作物播种面积（G₁₁）	0.030
		粮食单产（G₁₂）	0.054
		人均粮食占有量（G₁₃）	0.078
		耕地面积（G₁₄）	0.082
		人均耕地面积（G₁₅）	0.089
	土地经济安全（R₂）	GDP（G₂₁）	0.070
		总人口（G₂₂）	0.080
		建设用地面积（G₂₃）	0.183
	土地生态安全（R₃）	生态用地面积（G₃₁）	0.084
		土地生态系统服务价值（G₃₂）	0.250

序号	安全等级	安全程度	安全区间
1	Ⅰ	相当高	0.98~1.00
2	Ⅱ	非常高	0.96~0.98
3	Ⅲ	较高	0.94~0.96
4	Ⅳ	高	0.92~0.94
5	Ⅴ	中	0.90~0.92
6	Ⅵ	低	0.60~0.90
7	Ⅶ	不安全	0.00~0.60

	粮食安全保障子系统得分	土地经济安全子系统得分	土地生态安全子系统得分	综合得分	排名	安全等级	安全程度
方案2	0.308	0.333	0.311	0.952	3	Ⅲ	较高
方案3	0.333	0.320	0.333	0.986	1	Ⅰ	相当高
方案5	0.303	0.326	0.304	0.933	5	Ⅳ	高
方案6	0.327	0.313	0.326	0.966	2	Ⅱ	非常高
方案8	0.298	0.320	0.298	0.916	7	Ⅴ	中
方案9	0.322	0.307	0.319	0.948	4	Ⅲ	较高
方案11	0.293	0.314	0.292	0.899	9	Ⅵ	低
方案12	0.316	0.301	0.313	0.930	6	Ⅳ	高
方案15	0.311	0.295	0.306	0.912	8	Ⅴ	中

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