Resources Science ›› 2017, Vol. 39 ›› Issue (3): 490-500.doi: 10.18402/resci.2017.03.11

• Orginal Article • Previous Articles     Next Articles

Influence of precipitation change on climatic potential productivity of major crops in the Huaihe River Basin

Yun YAO1,2(), Ying XU3, Xiaoqun MA1,2()   

  1. 1. Anhui Institute of Meteorological Sciences / Anhui Province Key Laboratory of Atmospheric Science and Satellite Remote Sensing,Hefei 230031,China
    2. Shouxian National Climate Observatory,Shouxian 232200,China
    3. Anhui Agricultural Meteorological Center,Hefei 230031,China
  • Received:2016-05-10 Revised:2017-02-08 Online:2017-03-20 Published:2017-03-20

Abstract:

Frequent droughts and floods in the Huaihe River basin have severely restricted crops production capabilities. To evaluate the influence of climate change on crop productivity,the climatic potential productivity (CPP)of wheat,maize and single-season rice were calculated using weather data from 171 stations and crop growth period data from 121 stations from 1971 to 2010 and stepwise correction modeling. The influence of precipitation changes on crop CPP under the background of climate warming was emphatically analyzed. In the last 40 years,in the Huaihe River basin the single-season rice CPP was the maximum,then maize; wheat was the minimum. The inter-annual variation coefficient of each crop’s CPP was more than 10%,among which wheat CPP was more than 20%. However,each did not have an obvious change over time. The ratio of CPP to light and temperature potential productivity (abbreviation:climate ratio)of three crops was also analyzed. Multiyear mean climate ratio of wheat was the lowest,only 49.7%,and the variation coefficient was 25.4%,while that of maize and rice were 67.3% and 66.4% respectively,and the variation coefficients were 12.9% and 16.3%. The influence of precipitation change on wheat CPP is most serious,then maize CPP and that of rice CPP is the lowest. Serious shortages in precipitation during the wheat growing season and high precipitation variation coefficient both restricted wheat CPP. The main reasons limiting maize CPP were more precipitation,fewer precipitation and precipitation variation during the growing season. The climate ratio of single-season rice was only significantly correlated to precipitation during the growing season,thus rice CPP was mainly influenced by the amount of precipitation.

Key words: Huaihe River Basin, major crops, climatic potential productivity, precipitation change