基于改进选择实验法的广西红树林湿地修复意愿评估

doi:10.18402/resci.2016.09.18

Abstract

Abstract:

The restoration and compensation of mangrove wetland is an important way to avoid service degradation. Based on the assumption that there is no loss of welfare,valuing residents’ marginal willingness to pay for each restoration attribute of mangrove wetland is an essential prerequisite to assess the scale of restoration and compensation. This strategy will also aid policymakers to identify the most important wetland attribute and formulate efficient restoration measures,significant for sustainable ecosystem services. To assess residents’ preference and willingness to pay for restoration of mangrove wetlands in Guangxi,we present a choice experiment with respondent-specific status quo alternatives. The restoration attributes are divided into four parts：mangrove area,landscape integrity,water quality and biodiversity. Each attribute has its own corresponding levels. The number of residents who are sampled at random in Beihai,Qinzhou,Fangchenggang is 297. Based on real survey data,the random parameter Logit model is used to quantify residents’ willingness to pay. The results demonstrate that the willingness of local residents to pay for improving water quality is 48.44 CNY per person per year,which is the highest among the four restoration attributes,followed by increasing mangrove area and biodiversity. In addition,to make the level of each mangrove attribute achieve the highest in history,residents whose specific status quo alternatives are all lowest want to pay 153.56 CNY per person per year for the restoration of wetlands. Heterogeneous and asymmetric preferences were detected. These findings will provide a reference for mangrove wetland scientific restoration scheme in China.

Key words: choice experiments, specific status quo assessment, random parameter Logit Model, willingness to pay, asymmetric preference, Guangxi Province

SU Hongyan,LI Jingmei. Valuing the willingness to restore mangrove wetlands in Guangxi based on improved choice experiments[J].Resources Science, 2016, 38(9): 1810-1819.

Figures/Tables 7

Table 1

Table 2

Table 3

Table 4

Table 5

Table 6

Results of random parameter logit models"

	模型1		模型2		模型3
变量	系数均值（s.e.）	标准分布离差（s.e.）	系数均值（s.e.）	标准分布离差（s.e.）	系数均值（s.e.）	标准分布离差（s.e.）
ASC₁	0.635 5 （0.428 8）		-1.349 5 （1.055 0）
ASC₂	0.759 2* （0.438 6）		-1.410 6 （1.126 8）
X₁	1.110 3***（0.252 0）	1.276 8***（0.342 2）	1.034 1***（0.237 5）	0.965 0** （0.426 4）
X₂	0.196 1 （0.160 7）	0.627 9** （0.251 4）	0.182 8 （0.156 2）	0.991 6***（0.216 1）
X₃	1.600 5***（0.190 4）	1.123 7***（0.312 0）	1.681 4***（0.189 4）	0.410 4 （0.266 6）
X₄	1.051 3***（0.217 2）	0.360 5 （0.381 5）	0.958 6***（0.182 2）	0.027 5 （0.295 6）
ASC₁ $×$ *IN₁			0.206 9***（0.061 3）
ASC₁ $×$ FA₁			-0.497 9** （0.213 0）
ASC₁ $×$ ED₁			1.022 7***（0.205 1）
ASC₂ $×$ IN₂			0.264 3***（0.060 0）
ASC₂ $×$ FA₂			-0.552 4** （0.223 9）
ASC₂ $×$ ED₂			1.088 8***（0.204 4）
X_1（_inc_）					1.631 2***（0.520 9）	5.023 4***（0.950 0）
X_1（_dec_）					1.440 9 （1.464 2）	0.094 1 （2.432 9）
X_2（_inc_）					-0.479 3 （0.335 0）	3.219 1***（0.607 4）
X_2（_dec_）					-1.309 1* （0.789 1）	0.477 2 （0.873 4）
X_3（_inc_）					2.760 4***（0.457 1）	4.287 2***（0.704 1）
X_3（_dec_）					-3.311 4***（1.132 3）	3.756 1***（1.094 6）
X_4（_inc_）					1.447 7***（0.412 7）	2.606 1***（0.488 2）
X_4（_dec_）					-3.026 8** （1.184 7）	3.818 7***（1.086 2）
COST	-0.045 8***（0.007 0）	0.0488 3***（0.007 4）	-0.034 7***（0.005 2）	0.036 1***（0.005 2）	-0.055 4***（0.008 0）
McFadden Pseudo-R²	0.37		0.40		0.37

Table 6

Table 7

References 33

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属性	状态水平	解释
红树林面积	增加	红树林面积增加
红树林面积	不增加	红树林面积不变或减少
景观完整性	高	红树林平均斑块面积较大,斑块连片程度高,生境较完整
	中	红树林平均斑块面积较小,出现破碎化
	低	红树林平均斑块面积很小,斑块连片程度低,生境破碎化严重
湿地水质	良好	红树林生长区域水环境质量为优质
	一般	红树林生长区域水环境质量为中等
	较差	红树林生长区域水环境质量较差
生物多样性^*	高	红树林种群很多,生长区域内底栖动物很多
	中	红树林种群较多,生长区域内底栖动物较多
	低	红树林种群较少,生长区域内底栖动物较少
支付意愿/（元/（年·人））	0,50,100,150	每人每年为修复红树林湿地的支付费用（期限为10年）

要素	方案A	方案B	不修复
红树林湿地面积	增加	不增加	保持现状
景观完整性	低	中	保持现状
湿地水质	一般	较差	保持现状
生物多样性	中	低	保持现状
每人每年支付费用	150元	50元	0元
我选择

属性	红树林面积		景观完整性			湿地水质			生物多样性
状态	增加	不增加	高	中	低	良好	中等	较差	高	中	低
百分比/%	18	82	8	72	20	27	54	19	20	58	22

		预测不变	预测改善	预测减少或下降
要素	现状
红树林面积	增加	增加	增加	不增加
红树林面积	不增加（不变或减少）	不增加（不变或减少）	增加	不增加
景观完整性	高	高	高	中
	中	中	高	低
	低	低	中	低
湿地水质	良好	良好	良好	中等
	中等	中等	良好	较差
	较差	较差	中等	较差
生物多样性	高	高	高	中
	中	中	高	低
	低	低	中	低

属性	变化	模型1	模型2	模型3
红树林面积		24.23	29.79
湿地水质	上升	34.93	48.44	49.86
湿地水质	下降	34.93	48.44	59.82
生物多样性	上升	22.94	27.62	26.15
生物多样性	下降	22.94	27.62	54.68

Valuing the willingness to restore mangrove wetlands in Guangxi based on improved choice experiments

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