Resources Science ›› 2016, Vol. 38 ›› Issue (2): 228-238.doi: 10.18402/resci.2016.02.05

• Orginal Article • Previous Articles     Next Articles

Rationality evaluation and driving force of industrial land expansion in Shandong Province

PENG Shangui1,2(), WANG Yinghong1,2(), CHEN Chen3, WANG Jian1,2, LEI Gang4, WU Xianhua4   

  1. 1. School of Environment and Spatial Informatics, China University of Mining and Technology, Xuzhou 221116, China
    2. Jiangsu Key Laboratory of Resources and Environmental Information Engineering, China University of Mining and Technology,Xuzhou 221116, China
    3. Ji’nan Railway Bureau, Land Administration Bureau, Ji’nan 250001, China
    4. Shandong Construction Development Research Institute, Ji’nan 250001, China
  • Received:2015-03-24 Revised:2015-05-04 Online:2016-02-01 Published:2016-02-01


This paper investigated the scale of industrial land from the view of local government behavior in land supply and adopted panel data for all cities in Shandong, China from 2001 to 2012. We used threshold regression modeling to analyze the reasonable scale of industrial land for all cities in Shandong and studied the classification and research of driving forces of rational and irrational industrial land. The results reveal that according to the different ways of per land area industrial capital stock on industrial economic output, the scale of industrial land can be divided into rational and irrational types. There is a positive effect on industrial economy while per land area industrial capital stock is greater than 40.791 billion/km2 in Shandong, and it can be called a reasonable scale while the scale of industrial land is in this interval; otherwise it is known as an unreasonable scale. From 2001 to 2012, the scale of irrational industrial land of Shandong decreased from 212.03 km2 to 100.74 km2, while irrational industrial land accounts for the proportion of the total amount of industrial land that decreased from 46.49% to 9.19%; the scale of irrational industrial land was mainly concentrated in western and southern Shandong province. Rational industrial land expansion mainly was the result of economic and demographic factors, while irrational industrial land expansion was mainly driven by institutional factors such as tax system and performance evaluation system of local officials, and other systems. Regulation and control of industrial land expansion should ensure land-capital allocation relation within a reasonable range, by means of reform in financial and official promotion appraisal system to constrain local government’s irrational land supply behavior and prevent its impact on industrial land expansion.

Key words: land economics, scale of industrial land, rationality, driving force, threshold estimation, panel data, shandong Province