Resources Science ›› 2016, Vol. 38 ›› Issue (1): 166-174.doi: 10.18402/resci.2016.01.18

• Orginal Article • Previous Articles     Next Articles

Evaluation of agricultural vulnerability to drought in Guanzhong Area

LI Mengna(), QIAN Hui(), QIAO Liang   

  1. College of Environmental Science and Engineering,Chang’an University,Xi’an 710054,China
  • Received:2015-06-02 Revised:2015-11-23 Online:2016-01-25 Published:2016-01-25

Abstract:

Guangzhong Area is one of the most important production regions of crops,so it’s of great importance to know its agricultural vulnerability. In the evaluation of agricultural vulnerability to drought in Guanzhong Area,to make the selection of indexes and determination of the weights of indexes more scientific,grey relation analysis and combination weighting game theory were put into use. 10 indexes were screened out from 12 indexes,and the combined weights of these indexes were calculated. Agricultural vulnerability value to drought in Guanzhong Area was calculated by vulnerability model which is developed by comprehensive index method. Contribution model was applied to analysis each city’s main contributing factors and indexes. The results show that:the least vulnerable city is Xi’an,and the following is Weinan,Xianyang,Baoojiand and Tongchuan. Sensitivity and restorative make similar contribution to Xi’an,while lack of effective irrigation area,and less consumption of agricultural plastic film per unit arable area are the main contributors. Restorative contributes more for Weinan and Xianyang. Low government revenue and low per capita GDP are the main contributors for two cities. Sensitivity and restorative make similar contribution to Baooji. Sensitivity contributes more for Tongchuan. Irrigation water consumption per unit area of farmland and water supply capacity of water conservancy projects are the main contributors for Baooji and Tongchuan. Finally,to reduce each cities’ agricultural vulnerability to drought,countermeasures are put forward based on the main contribution indexes.

Key words: agricultural drought, vulnerability, comprehensive index method, contribution value, Guangzhong Area