山东省建设用地供给结构对人口流动的影响研究

doi:10.18402/resci.2016.01.07

Abstract

Abstract:

In order to reflect the impact of local government land supply behavior on migration, clarify the mechanism of population inflow influenced by construction land supply structure adjustment. Here,we built a general equilibrium model for local government,enterprise and residents using panel data for prefecture-level cities in Shandong,China from 2001-2013. We analyzed the empirical impact of construction land supply structure of local governments on population inflow using threshold regression. We found that the construction land supply structure has an inverted U type relationship with population inflow. The effects on population inflow are different when construction land supply structures are different. The （0,0.823） interval enhances the value of the construction land supply structure and helps draw population inflow while increasing the proportion of industrial land or decreasing the proportion of commercial and residential land. The （0.823,∞） interval has a negative impact on population inflow if we continue to increase the proportion of industrial land or reduce the proportion of commercial and residential land. The partial regression coefficients of construction land supply structure is less than the population size （26.617 3）and city location （11.445 5）and greater than infrastructure investment （1.399 5）. This indicates that the structure of construction land supply is an indispensable factor to population inflow. Based on real demand of the government itself on population inflow,local governments can use the construction land supply structure as a tool and adopt different ways to regulate and guide the population inflow and outflow.

Key words: construction land, supply structure, general equilibrium model, threshold regression, Shandong Province

PENG Shangui,WANG Yinghong,CHEN Chen,WANG Jian,LEI Gang,CHENG Daoping. The impact of local government construction land supply structure on migration in Shandong,China[J].Resources Science, 2016, 38(1): 62-72.

Figures/Tables 7

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模型假设		门限变量（S_it）
原假设	备选假设	F值	5%临界值	P值
（1）线性模型	单门限模型	56.086	41.823	0.009
（2）单门限模型	双门限模型	15.738	25.925	0.218
（3）双门限模型	三门限模型	8.614	18.748	0.470

解释变量	系数	标准误差	t统计量	P值	VIF
C	-2 968.730 0	191.457 0	-15.505 9	0.000 0	-
（0.823）	2.307 2	1.140 1	2.202 3	0.044 8	1.443 0
（0.823）	-2.133 1	1.155 2	-2.846 4	0.036 9	4.221 0
	11.445 5	1.201 9	9.522 4	0.000 0	5.586 0
	-1.842 3	1.468 7	-1.254 2	0.211 7	9.392 0
	1.399 5	0.867 2	6.451 5	0.000 0	1.357 0
	15.164 2	2.350 5	1.613 7	0.108 7	4.278 0
	26.617 3	34.179 0	15.115 0	0.000 0	3.662 0
R²	0.984 6	F值		42.486 2
D.W统计值	1.892 9	P（F）		0.000 0

The impact of local government construction land supply structure on migration in Shandong,China

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