光伏扶贫对乡村振兴的政策效应

doi:10.18402/resci.2022.01.03

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

本文基于中国8个省的1251户有效农户问卷,采用双重差分方法,分析了光伏扶贫对促进乡村振兴在村级治理、产业发展、人居环境以及农户生活等维度的政策效应,并通过安慰剂检验、倾向得分匹配、替换变量等进行了稳健性检验。结果表明：①光伏扶贫能够显著提升村级产业发展和改善人居环境,但对提升村级治理的政策效应不显著。②从户级农户生活维度来看,光伏扶贫可以显著改善居住条件和基础设施条件,但对推动就业的政策效应不显著。③稳健性检验表明,光伏扶贫有利于提升农户的生活满意度。进一步的异质性分析表明,光伏扶贫对不同类型光照资源区的政策效应具有显著差异,其中对第一、二类资源区的影响主要集中在农户生活层面,对第三类资源区的影响主要集中在产业发展和人居环境方面;与非贫困户相比,光伏扶贫对贫困户的政策效应更加显著,即不存在“精英俘获”现象。由此可见,光伏扶贫对乡村振兴的政策效应集中体现在促进产业发展,改善人居环境、居住条件和基础设施条件。未来需将提升村级治理能力和推动就业等作为光伏扶贫的工作重点。

关键词: 光伏扶贫, 乡村振兴, 双重差分, 产业发展, 人居环境, 农户生活

Abstract:

Based on the valid questionnaire of 1251 households in 8 provinces of China, this paper adopts the Differences-in-Differences (DID) model to analyze the policy effect of photovoltaic poverty alleviation (PVPA) on promoting Rural Revitalization in terms of village governance, industrial development, human settlements and household life. Then, this paper conducts robustness tests by means of placebo test, propensity score matching, substitution variables, etc. The results show that: (1) PVPA can significantly improve the development of village-level industrial development and human settlements, but the policy effect on promoting village governance is not significant. (2) From the perspective of household life, PVPA can significantly improve living conditions and infrastructure conditions, but the policy effect on promoting employment is not significant. (3) The robustness test shows that PVPA is conducive to improving the household life satisfaction. Further heterogeneity analysis shows that the policy effects of PVPA on different types of light resource areas are significantly different. The impact on the first and second types of resource areas is mainly concentrated on the household life, and the impact on the third type of resource areas is mainly concentrated on industrial development and human settlements. Compared with non-poor households, the policy effect of PVPA on the poor is more significant, that is, there is no phenomenon of “elite capture”. It can be seen that the policy effect of PVPA on Rural Revitalization is mainly reflected in promoting industrial development and human settlements, living conditions and infrastructure conditions. In the future, policy makers need to focus on improving village governance capacity and promoting employment.

Key words: photovoltaic poverty alleviation, rural revitalization, Differences-in-Differences (DID) model, industrial development, human settlements, household life

黄赋斌, 李文静, 帅传敏. 光伏扶贫对乡村振兴的政策效应[J]. 资源科学, 2022, 44(1): 32-46.

HUANG Fubin, LI Wenjing, SHUAI Chuanmin. Policy effect of solar photovoltaic poverty alleviation on promoting rural revitalization[J]. Resources Science, 2022, 44(1): 32-46.

图/表 8

表1

变量的定义与赋值

变量名	变量赋值
核心解释变量
DID=treatment_i×post_t	若农户i是光伏扶贫受益户,则treatmenti=1,否则为0;若t=2017,则post_t=1,否则为0
因变量
（1）村级治理	二级指标之和的均值
村干部在脱贫致富、保护环境等方面的模范带头作用	非常不满意=1,不满意=2,一般=3,满意=4,非常满意=5
本村的村务公开情况	非常不满意=1,不满意=2,一般=3,满意=4,非常满意=5
贫困村民参与民主决策的机会	非常不满意=1,不满意=2,一般=3,满意=4,非常满意=5
（2）产业发展	二级指标之和的均值
村专业协会或合作社的发展	非常不满意=1,不满意=2,一般=3,满意=4,非常满意=5
金融市场借贷的便利程度	非常不满意=1,不满意=2,一般=3,满意=4,非常满意=5
村集体组织的技能培训情况	非常不满意=1,不满意=2,一般=3,满意=4,非常满意=5
（3）人居环境	二级指标之和的均值
本村的村容村貌状况	非常不满意=1,不满意=2,一般=3,满意=4,非常满意=5
本村的生态环境（如水、土地、空气等）状况	非常不满意=1,不满意=2,一般=3,满意=4,非常满意=5
（4）农户生活
就业
家庭成员中有稳定收入来源的人数（在计算多维能力被剥夺值时,就业指标为家庭成员中有无稳定收入来源）	连续变量（在计算多维能力被剥夺值时,就业指标赋值为若家庭成员中没有稳定收入来源,赋值为1,否则为0）
居住条件	三级指标相加之和
自来水	若不能使用自来水,赋值为1,否则为0
冲水厕所	若不能使用冲水厕所,赋值为1,否则为0
房屋结构	若房屋结构为土坯结构及以下,赋值为1,否则为0
资产情况	若未至少拥有以下资产中的其中一项则赋值为1,否则为0：电视机、洗衣机、冰箱、空调、摩托车、汽车、电动车
基础设施条件	三级指标相加之和
道路硬化	若入户道路未硬化,赋值为1,否则为0
垃圾处理	若家庭垃圾未进行集中存储、回收或无害化处理,赋值为1,否则为0
供电稳定性	由农户对供电稳定性进行打分：非常不稳定=1,不稳定=2,一般=3,稳定=4,非常稳定=5;若分值低于3分,则该指标的赋值为1,否则为0
（5）人民对生活的满意度（稳健性检验）	非常不满意=1,不满意=2,一般=3,满意=4,非常满意=5
控制变量
A户主特征变量
性别	女=0,男=1
少数民族	若户主是少数民族则赋值为1,否则为0
年龄	连续变量
受教育水平	文盲=0,小学=1,初中=2,高中/中专=3,大专=4,大学=5,研究生及以上=6
是否党员	若户主是党员赋值为1,否则为0
最远生活足迹	未离开过所在县=0,县内=1,省内=2,省外=3
B家庭特征变量
家庭人口规模	连续变量
劳动力人数	连续变量

表1

表2

表3

图1

表4

表5

表6

表7

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资源区类型	样本县	样本村数量/个	样本户数量
第一类	宁夏永宁县	1	30
	宁夏海原县	5	135
	内蒙古察哈尔右翼中旗	6	158
第二类	青海共和县	4	154
	甘肃通渭县	5	152
	山西天镇县	5	150
第三类	湖北长阳土家族自治县	5	154
	河南上蔡县	5	151
	安徽金寨县	5	167
合计	9	41	1251

变量	村级治理					产业发展
变量	1	2	3	4	5	1	2	3	4	5
DID	0.908***	0.898***	0.910***	-0.020	-0.029	0.809***	0.799***	0.805***	0.157**	0.130**
	(0.02)	(0.021)	(0.021)	(0.037)	(0.037)	(0.023)	(0.023)	(0.023)	(0.052)	(0.053)
control		控制	控制	控制	控制		控制	控制	控制	控制
县固定效应			控制		控制			控制		控制
年份固定效应				控制	控制				控制	控制
观测量	2502	2502	2502	2502	2502	2502	2502	2502	2502	2502
R-squared	0.301	0.318	0.334	0.469	0.483	0.240	0.259	0.273	0.334	0.350
变量	人居环境					农户生活-就业
变量	1	2	3	4	5	1	2	3	4	5
DID	1.109***	1.098***	1.116***	0.108**	0.112**	0.181***	0.142***	0.156***	0.009	0.045
	(0.023)	(0.024)	(0.023)	(0.047)	(0.047)	(0.051)	(0.044)	(0.044)	(0.109)	(0.107)
control		控制	控制	控制	控制		控制	控制	控制	控制
县固定效应			控制		控制			控制		控制
年份固定效应				控制	控制				控制	控制
观测量	2502	2502	2502	2502	2502	2502	2502	2502	2502	2502
R-squared	0.343	0.359	0.407	0.380	0.494	0.002	0.385	0.409	0.385	0.409
变量	农户生活-居住条件					农户生活-基础设施条件
变量	1	2	3	4	5	1	2	3	4	5
DID	-1.027***	-1.014***	-1.004***	-0.266***	-0.174***	-1.240***	-1.234***	-1.231***	-0.211***	-0.144***
	(0.028)	(0.029)	(0.029)	(0.055)	(0.050)	(0.030)	(0.030)	(0.029)	(0.049)	(0.043)
control		控制	控制	控制	控制		控制	控制	控制	控制
县固定效应			控制		控制			控制		控制
年份固定效应				控制	控制				控制	控制
观测量	2502	2502	2502	2502	2502	2502	2502	2502	2502	2502
R-squared	0.257	0.265	0.396	0.332	0.474	0.371	0.384	0.432	0.508	0.563

变量	产业发展			人居环境
	(1)	(2)	(3)	(4)	(5)	(6)
	近邻匹配	半径匹配	核匹配	近邻匹配	半径匹配	核匹配
DID	0.127**	0.130**	0.130**	0.114**	0.112**	0.112**
	(0.053)	(0.053)	(0.053)	(0.048)	(0.048)	(0.048)
control	控制	控制	控制	控制	控制	控制
年份固定效应	控制	控制	控制	控制	控制	控制
县固定效应	控制	控制	控制	控制	控制	控制
观测量	2448	2502	2502	2448	2502	2502
R-squared	0.351	0.350	0.350	0.511	0.510	0.509
变量	农户生活-居住条件			农户生活-基础设施
	(7)	(8)	(9)	(10)	(11)	(12)
	近邻匹配	半径匹配	核匹配	近邻匹配	半径匹配	核匹配
DID	-0.176***	-0.174***	-0.174***	-0.137***	-0.144***	-0.144***
	(0.050)	(0.050)	(0.050)	(0.043)	(0.043)	(0.043)
control	控制	控制	控制	控制	控制	控制
年份固定效应	控制	控制	控制	控制	控制	控制
县固定效应	控制	控制	控制	控制	控制	控制
观测量	2448	2502	2502	2448	2502	2502
R-squared	0.473	0.474	0.474	0.565	0.563	0.563

变量	生活满意度
变量	(1)	(2)	(3)	(4)	(5)
DID	1.021***	1.001***	1.006***	0.160***	0.128**
	(0.029)	(0.029)	(0.029)	(0.055)	(0.054)
control		控制	控制	控制	控制
县固定效应			控制		控制
年份固定效应				控制	控制
观测量	2502	2502	2502	2502	2502
R-squared	0.280	0.296	0.302	0.390	0.397

变量	产业发展			人居环境
	(1)	(2)	(3)	(4)	(5)	(6)
	一类	二类	三类	一类	二类	三类
DID	0.007	0.150	0.277***	-0.044	0.208**	0.210***
	(0.093)	(0.094)	(0.086)	(0.075)	(0.099)	(0.072)
control	控制	控制	控制	控制	控制	控制
县固定效应	控制	控制	控制	控制	控制	控制
年份固定效应	控制	控制	控制	控制	控制	控制
观测量	646	912	944	646	912	944
R-squared	0.38	0.332	0.378	0.542	0.509	0.516
变量	农户生活-居住条件			农户生活-基础设施条件
	(7)	(8)	(9)	(10)	(11)	(12)
	一类	二类	三类	一类	二类	三类
DID	-0.365***	-0.114	-0.058	-0.193***	-0.314***	-0.027
	(0.079)	(0.062)	(0.099)	(0.066)	(0.080)	(0.078)
control	控制	控制	控制	控制	控制	控制
县固定效应	控制	控制	控制	控制	控制	控制
年份固定效应	控制	控制	控制	控制	控制	控制
观测量	646	912	944	646	912	944
R-squared	0.549	0.527	0.335	0.592	0.624	0.505