中国稀土政策演进逻辑与优化调整方向

doi:10.18402/resci.2020.08.08

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

本文旨在梳理中国稀土政策的演进历程,剖析政策演进动因及机制,并据此指出未来政策的优化调整方向。基于标志性政策,本文首先得出中国稀土政策可划分为4个演进阶段,分别为鼓励稀土出口和规范开采程序（1985—2004年）、实行出口数量管理和提升出口定价权（2005—2010年）、行业秩序治理和组织结构调整（2011—2014年）,以及产业供给侧结构性改革（2015年至今）。接着,文章运用PSR（压力-状态-响应）模型剖析了政策演进动因,运用系统动力学因果反馈图描绘了政策演进机制,探索得出中国稀土政策演进动因主要包括产业供给侧问题的倒逼、国家宏观政策调整的约束,以及全球发展形势的推动。总体而言,中国稀土政策的制定具有一定的滞后性、被动性和盲目性,其驱动机制主要表现为倒逼机制和约束机制。最后,本文构建了新时代中国稀土政策的PSR模型,指出在国内外双重压力下,稀土产业处于供需不匹配、下游应用水平不足、环境税费制度不完善、全球竞争地位受威胁等不利状态,未来应当形成问题与目标双向导向机制,从优化资源开发战略、激发企业研发热情、完善环境税费制度、分轻重稀土进行全球资源战略布局和产业治理4个方面进行响应政策的优化调整。

关键词: 稀土政策, 演进机制, PSR模型, 因果反馈图, 供给侧改革, 中国

Abstract:

This study examined the evolution process of China’s rare earth policy, analyzed the drivers and mechanism of change, and identified the direction of future policy optimization and adjustment accordingly. Based on the key policies, China’s rare earth policy development can be divided into four stages: (1) encouraging the export of rare earth and standardizing mining procedures (1985-2004); (2) implementing export quantity management and enhancing export pricing power (2005-2010); (3) improving industrial rule and order and adjusting organizational structures (2011-2014); and (4) industrial supply-side structural reform (2015-present). Next, this study used the pressure-state-response (PSR) model to analyze the drivers of policy change, and used the causal feedback diagram in system dynamics to describe the policy change mechanism. The results indicate that the drivers of China’s rare earth policy change mainly include the force of industrial supply-side problems, the constraints of national macro-policy adjustments, and the promotion of the global development trend. Generally speaking, the formulation of China’s rare earth policy to some extent lagged behind developments in the industry, was passive in nature, and lacked clear policy objectives, and its driving mechanism was mainly manifested as a forced mechanism and a restraint mechanism. Finally, this study constructed the PSR model of China’s rare earth policy in the new era, pointing out that under the dual pressures in China and internationally, the rare earth industry faces challenges such as mismatch between supply and demand, insufficient downstream application level, imperfect environmental taxation system, and endangered global competitiveness. In the future, a two-way problem-oriented and goal-oriented mechanism should be formed, and response policies should be optimized and adjusted from four aspects: optimizing resource development strategy, stimulating enterprises’ enthusiasm for research and development, improving the environmental taxation system, and formulating global resource strategic layout and industrial governance based on the characteristics of light and heavy rare earth.

Key words: rare earth policy, mechanism of change, pressure-state-response (PSR) model, causal feedback diagram, supply-side reform, China

周美静, 黄健柏, 邵留国, 杨丹辉. 中国稀土政策演进逻辑与优化调整方向[J]. 资源科学, 2020, 42(8): 1527-1539.

ZHOU Meijing, HUANG Jianbai, SHAO Liuguo, YANG Danhui. Change and adjustment direction of China’s rare earth policy[J]. Resources Science, 2020, 42(8): 1527-1539.

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