出口商品结构对碳生产率的门槛效应研究

doi:10.18402/resci.2019.01.13

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

面对全球气候变暖和国际碳减排压力增大,发展低碳经济成为各国共同关心的话题,发展低碳经济的核心是提高衡量单位碳排放经济效益的碳生产率。本文基于36个国家1996—2014年的年度数据,采用面板门槛模型,分别以经济发展水平和技术水平为门槛变量研究出口商品结构对碳生产率的门槛效应,并考察如何利用这种效应提高碳生产率。结果表明,出口商品结构对碳生产率始终产生抑制作用,经济发展和技术处于高水平时出口商品结构对碳生产率抑制作用均增强。因此,只有推动经济发展和技术达到一定水平才能充分发挥出口商品结构调整对碳生产率的提高作用。此外,出口商品结构对碳生产率的影响具有显著区域差异。针对本文的研究结论,提出了相关建议。

关键词: 门槛效应, 碳生产率, 出口商品结构, 碳减排

Abstract:

In the face of global warming and the increasing pressure of international carbon emission reduction, the development of a low-carbon economy has become a common concern in all countries. The core of the development of a low-carbon economy is to improve the carbon productivity which can measure the economic benefits of carbon emissions per unit. Therefore, the identification of the factors of carbon productivity will provide an empirical evidence for increasing carbon productivity in various countries and exhibit a reference for reducing carbon emission intensity in China. Based on the 1996-2014 annual data of 36 countries, this study adopted a panel threshold model to study the threshold of merchandise exports structure for carbon productivity by using the economic development level and technology level threshold variables and learn how to use this influence to improve carbon productivity. The results demonstrate that the merchandise export structure has always been an inhibitory effect on carbon productivity, which is strong when the economic and technology development is in a relatively high level. We assume that merchandise export structure adjustment can improve carbon productivity when economic development and technology is in a proper level. In addition, the impact of merchandise export structure on carbon productivity has a significant regional difference. Based on the conclusion of this study, relevant suggestions are put forward. It is essential to optimize the structure of export commodities and improve energy efficiency from different perspectives of variable threshold system. It is also needed to solve the contradiction between carbon productivity increase and carbon emission increase, maintain appropriate economic growth rates, absorb advanced technology spillover, and improve the technical level.

Key words: threshold effect, carbon productivity, merchandise exports structure, carbon emission reduction

邵桂兰, 常瑶, 李晨. 出口商品结构对碳生产率的门槛效应研究[J]. 资源科学, 2019, 41(1): 142-151.

Guilan SHAO, Yao CHANG, Chen LI. Threshold effect of merchandise export structure on carbon productivity[J]. Resources Science, 2019, 41(1): 142-151.

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参考文献 21

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变量	BP_LM	Ps_LM	Bcs_LM
碳生产率	201.591***	200.591***	84.177***
出口商品结构	53.736***	52.736***	10.567***
技术水平	75.767***	74.767***	24.293***
外商直接投资净投入	55.137***	54.137***	39.517***
能源结构	118.009***	117.009***	1.693*
经济发展水平	209.142***	208.142***	78.038***

变量	llc	fisher
碳生产率	-4.704***	6.577***
出口商品结构	-6.415***	5.539***
技术水平	-13.115***	23.056***
外商直接投资净流入	-7.886***	5.163***
能源结构	-2.453***	3.383***
经济发展水平	-4.910***	18.855***

门槛变量	F统计量	门槛个数	门槛值	95%置信区间
经济发展水平	94.57*** 76.49	单一门槛	10.099	（10.095 10.165）
技术水平	105.62* 68.32 14.68	双门槛	5.063 7.197	（4.855 5.081）（7.185 7.201）

变量	方程（3）门槛回归	方程（2）门槛回归
出口商品结构(经济发展水平≤ 10.099)	—	-1.371*** （-4.51）
出口商品结构(经济发展水平> 10.099)	—	-3.370*** （-8.70）
出口商品结构(技术水平≤ 5.063)	-0.324 （-1.45）	—
出口商品结构(5.063<技术水平≤ 7.197)	-0.676*** （-3.04）	—
出口商品结构(技术水平> 7.197)	-4.060*** （-13.99）	—

经济发展水平区间	国家
出口商品结构对碳生产率负向影响小的国家	阿根廷、孟加拉国、巴西、智利、中国、埃及、埃塞俄比亚、海地、印度尼西亚、印度、韩国、墨西哥、莫桑比克、马来西亚、菲律宾、葡萄牙、俄罗斯、沙特阿拉伯、苏丹、泰国、土耳其、也门、南非
出口商品结构对碳生产率负向影响大的国家	澳大利亚、加拿大、德国、丹麦、西班牙、法国、英国、意大利、日本、荷兰、挪威、新加坡、美国