低碳转型中新疆工业行业全要素生产率增长研究

doi:10.18402/resci.2017.02.17

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

推进工业经济发展向低碳化、集约化转型是“十三五”时期建设洁净新疆、落实绿色发展的重要途径。本文采用1999-2014年新疆32个工业行业的面板数据,借助扩展SBM（Slack Based Measure）超效率模型及ML（Mamlquist-Luenberger）指数对能源和碳排放约束下各行业TFP（Total Factor Productivity）及其变化情况进行评价,在此基础上,进一步测算各行业TFP对期望产出增长的贡献度。结论显示：①各行业的TFP普遍偏低,最佳效率前沿主要由轻工业和装备制造业构成;②绝大多数行业的TFP都明显增长,主要表现为由效率前沿面整体外移引发的增长效应,但追赶效应和规模效应不显著;③新疆工业总体及高、中、低强度产业的TFP增长贡献度都在缓慢波动中下降,对大规模要素投入的生产依赖性并未减弱反而有所增强,规模速度型粗放增长仍居主导地位。

关键词: 低碳转型, 工业, 全要素生产率, 扩展SBM超效率模型, Malmquist-Luenberger指数, 新疆

Abstract:

It is important to promote the transition of Xinjiang’s industrial economy to a low-carbon and intensive one when implementing Clean Xinjiang and the Green Development Concept during the China’s 13^th Five-Year Plan period. Based on panel data of 32 subdivided industries from 1999 to 2014,this paper evaluated Xinjiang’s industrial TFP and rate of change using a modified Super-SBM model and the Malmquist-Luenberger productivity index under energy and carbon emission constraints. On this basis,the contribution degree of TFP to desirable output growth was calculated. TFPs are generally low among industries,and the efficiency frontier is mainly composed of light industry and equipment manufacturing industry. TFPs of most industries have increased significantly,characterized by a growth effect caused by the out-shift of the efficiency frontier,but the catch-up effect and the scale effect are insignificant. As for the overall industry and industries with different CO₂ emission density,TFPs’ growth contribution degrees have decreased within a slow fluctuation,the production dependence upon massive inputs has not weakened but strengthened,and the extensive economic growth pattern oriented by scale and speed is still in a dominant position. There is a long way to go to implement an industrial low-carbon transition for Xinjiang,and strengthening the subject environment protection consciousness,speeding up green technique progress and innovation,optimizing energy consumption structure and promoting industrial transformation and upgrading are recommended.

Key words: low-carbon transition, industry, total factor productivity, modified Super-SBM model, malmquist-luenberger index, Xinjiang

徐妍. 低碳转型中新疆工业行业全要素生产率增长研究[J]. 资源科学, 2017, 39(2): 356-366.

Yan XU. Study on the total factor productivity growth of industries in low-carbon transition in Xinjiang[J]. Resources Science, 2017, 39(2): 356-366.

图/表 7

表1

能源和碳排放约束下TFP增长贡献度的取值范围"

$g Y$ 的正负性	$g A$ 的正负性	$α g K + β g L + γ g E$ 的正负性	ATY的取值范围	备注
+	+	-	$ATY ≥ 1$	效率驱动型集约增长
	+	+, $g A ≥ α g K + β g L + γ g E$	$0.5 ≤ ATY < 1$	效率驱动型集约增长
	+	+, $g A ≤ α g K + β g L + γ g E$	$0 ≤ ATY < 0.5$	规模驱动型粗放增长
	-	+	$ATY < 0$	规模驱动型粗放增长

表1

表2

1999-2014年新疆工业行业期望产出、非期望产出及CO2排放强度均值"

行业	代码	期望产出年均值 /万元	非期望产出年均值 /万t	$E D i$ /（t/万元）	行业	代码	期望产出年均值 /万元	非期望产出年均值 /万t	$E D i$ /（t/万元）
煤炭开采和洗选业	B06	385 239.9	632.8	16.1	纺织服装、鞋、帽制造业	C18	15 417.1	1.0	0.4
石油加工、炼焦及核燃料加工业	C25	2 494 017.7	7 370.4	26.3	皮革、毛皮、羽绒及其制品和制鞋业	C19	39 313.6	1.9	0.4
电力、热力的生产和供应业	D44	1 650 498.3	5 524.0	36.1	木材加工及木、竹、藤、棕、草制品业	C20	55 546.2	20.0	2.6
石油和天然气开采业	B07	1 890 628.1	1 732.1	7.6	家具制造业	C21	60 971.1	2.9	0.2
造纸及纸制品业	C22	118 339.5	125.7	6.4	印刷和记录媒介复制业	C23	32 968.6	3.0	0.3
化学原料及化学制品制造业	C26	1 780 582.7	2 355.0	7.1	医药制造业	C27	127 355.4	79.1	1.7
非金属矿物制品业	C30	1 207 537.9	1 026.6	7.1	化学纤维制造业	C28	516 568.0	118.2	1.6
黑色金属冶炼及压延加工业	C31	2 197 121.3	2 013.7	7.1	橡胶和塑料制品业	C29	414 468.6	88.3	0.7
黑色金属矿采选业	B08	283 547.1	81.6	2.0	有色金属冶炼及压延加工业	C32	776 328.4	1242.1	3.1
有色金属矿采选业	B09	84 953.1	55.7	2.7	金属制品业	C33	256 769.6	39.3	0.8
非金属矿采选业	B10	102 949.4	31.1	2.8	通用设备制造业	C34	99 578.9	8.4	0.4
农副食品加工业	C13	766 771.2	245.7	2.9	专用设备制造业	C35	154 344.6	15.2	0.6
食品制造业	C14	613 843.2	148.8	2.0	交通运输设备制造业	C36	136 862.2	6.6	0.3
酒、饮料和精制茶制造业	C15	374 662.4	40.8	0.9	电气机械和器材制造业	C38	787 247.9	35.9	0.2
烟草制品业	C16	85 953.8	2.9	0.3	燃气生产和供应业	D45	76 725.4	34.1	0.8
纺织业	C17	954 388.3	183.7	0.6	水的生产和供应业	D46	26 849.9	16.3	1.17

表2

表3

基于CO2排放强度的新疆工业行业分类"

$E D i$ 的取值范围（t/万元）	划分类型	具体行业
$16.0 ≤ E D i ≤ 36.1$	高强度产业	B06、C25、D44
$6.3 ≤ E D i ≤ 7.6$	中强度产业	B07、C22、C26、C30、C31
$0.2 ≤ E D i ≤ 3.2$	低强度产业	B08、B09、B10、C13、C14、C15、C16、C17、C18、C19、C20、C21、C23、C27、C28、C29、C32、C33、C34、C35、C36、C38、D45、D46

表3

表4

表5

表6

图1

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行业代码	1999年	2005年	2010年	2014年	均值	排名	行业代码	1999年	2005年	2010年	2014年	均值	排名
高强度产业均值	0.186	0.213	0.064	0.086	0.139	-	C17	0.172	0.269	0.120	0.119	0.178	23
B06	0.061	0.075	0.031	0.032	0.054	31	C18	0.192	0.317	0.151	0.119	0.339	10
C25	1.100	1.150	0.125	0.140	0.667	5	C19	0.165	1.066	1.235	1.348	0.710	4
D44	0.095	0.111	0.070	0.142	0.095	29	C20	0.072	0.282	0.165	0.196	0.201	20
中强度产业均值	0.170	0.220	0.081	0.101	0.179	-	C21	1.393	0.737	0.144	0.095	0.556	6
B07	0.222	0.130	0.028	0.039	0.235	15	C23	0.138	0.283	0.097	0.091	0.146	25
C22	0.130	0.164	0.062	0.109	0.114	28	C27	0.290	0.413	0.150	0.146	0.275	13
C26	0.156	0.258	0.105	0.130	0.171	24	C28	0.223	1.000	0.228	0.261	0.385	9
C30	0.121	0.164	0.089	0.111	0.126	27	C29	0.296	0.229	0.143	0.201	0.223	18
C31	0.261	0.577	0.219	0.170	0.521	7	C32	0.322	0.306	0.126	0.176	0.236	14
低强度产业均值	0.216	0.365	0.154	0.205	0.250	-	C33	0.281	0.347	0.141	0.325	0.330	11
B08	0.205	0.328	0.104	0.127	0.190	22	C34	0.118	0.445	0.206	1.104	0.397	8
B09	0.128	0.143	0.034	0.035	0.089	30	C35	0.308	0.349	0.211	0.269	0.289	12
B10	0.193	0.318	0.212	0.144	0.229	16	C36	0.169	1.051	0.193	1.047	0.752	3
C13	0.216	0.321	0.102	0.128	0.197	21	C38	0.257	1.118	1.450	1.127	1.102	1
C14	0.213	0.308	0.108	0.127	0.208	19	D45	0.130	0.147	0.068	0.077	0.135	26
C15	0.246	0.277	0.145	0.190	0.225	17	D46	0.069	0.044	0.020	0.036	0.041	32
C16	1.047	1.173	0.333	1.132	0.999	2	工业总体均值	0.205	0.320	0.128	0.169	0.222	-

行业代码	TC	PEC	SEC	ML	行业代码	TC	PEC	SEC	ML
高强度产业均值	1.137	0.987	0.963	1.080	C17	1.121	0.868	1.125	1.094
B06	1.117	0.926	1.035	1.070	C18	1.178	0.900	1.077	1.141
C25	1.167	0.939	0.929	1.017	C19	1.112	1.174	0.980	1.279
D44	1.128	1.106	0.928	1.159	C20	1.190	0.901	1.187	1.273
中强度产业均值	1.167	0.980	0.986	1.127	C21	1.185	0.969	0.863	0.991
B07	1.227	0.789	1.128	1.093	C23	1.132	0.992	0.980	1.102
C22	1.130	0.981	1.007	1.116	C27	1.138	0.929	1.029	1.086
C26	1.116	1.075	0.919	1.103	C28	1.209	0.925	1.093	1.222
C30	1.129	1.080	0.920	1.122	C29	1.129	0.907	1.074	1.100
C31	1.238	1.004	0.968	1.203	C32	1.125	0.997	0.964	1.081
低强度产业均值	1.137	0.956	1.042	1.133	C33	1.129	0.934	1.081	1.140
B08	1.121	0.882	1.098	1.085	C34	1.155	1.160	1.001	1.340
B09	1.116	0.901	1.018	1.025	C35	1.115	0.917	1.081	1.105
B10	1.160	0.993	0.987	1.138	C36	1.106	1.082	1.043	1.248
C13	1.130	0.884	1.092	1.091	C38	1.043	1.071	1.030	1.151
C14	1.130	0.926	1.043	1.091	D45	1.153	0.837	1.154	1.114
C15	1.111	0.933	1.053	1.092	D46	1.121	0.948	1.010	1.074
C16	1.199	1.003	1.002	1.206	工业总体均值	1.142	0.963	1.026	1.127

行业	情形1（不考虑能源投入及CO₂排放）				情形2（考虑能源投入及CO₂排放）
行业	TC	PEC	SEC	M	TC	PEC	SEC	ML
高强度产业	1.126	0.995	0.973	1.090	1.137	0.987	0.963	1.080
中强度产业	1.130	0.968	1.000	1.095	1.167	0.980	0.986	1.127
低强度产业	1.125	0.971	1.014	1.107	1.137	0.956	1.042	1.133
工业总体	1.126	0.972	1.008	1.104	1.142	0.963	1.026	1.127